Week 1 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props

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Most of the injury news shook out as expected with the biggest surprise likely being Mark Andrews missing the game for Baltimore today. Was going to make a list but this guy kind of has it summed up nicely for me:

I try not to pay too much attention to weather unless we have a spot with sustained heavy (15+ mph) winds, but just some food for thought as you’re finalizing your betting, fantasy, props, SGPs, PrizePicks or whatever else you’ll be doing for the next 3 hours or so.

We went over every game on Wednesday.

It’s getting a little tight for you to watch a damn near two-hour show before kick-off at this point, but if you did want some quick thoughts on a certain game, there are timestamps in the description, so you can jump to where you want to be.

Anyway, here’s what’s in the accounts so far

Tampa Bay +5

Still very much in disagreement on how low the market in general has this team. There’s finally been some steam for Baker overnight (I will try to post a number that’s still available, but if you listened to the podcast or watched the stream this week, we got this at +6 on Wednesday.)

I expect the Minnesota defense to struggle mightily early on while Flores is implementing his new schemes and the Buccs simply have good enough WRs to take advantage. I put a few bucks on the moneyline as well for good measure.

Green Bay ML +108

This is a spot where I’m a little off-market in both directions. I have Green Bay a little higher and the Bears a touch lower. Outside of D.J. Moore, I’m not certain the Bears made enough meaningful moves to really get the most out of this team and the rebuild will continue to spill into next year.

Christian Watson being out throws some cold water on things for Green Bay obviously, but I still love what they’ve cobbled together with Doubs, the three rookies, and the veteran RBs. This is probably just a bet on Jordan Love. If he shows the poise we saw over the summer, this offense should be just fine and they’ll be able to take out a team that still missing pieces in key spots.

Miami +3

Less excited about this with the Armstead injury, but I still think this is a coaching mismatch. More of a numbers play with my pricing saying Miami is a slightly better team and that the Chargers’ home-field advantage is below average. I make this closer to Chargers -1.5, so happy to take the three points and rely on one of last year’s best offenses (when Tua was upright).

Obviously, we’ll be watching closely to see what the new Kellen Moore offense looks like for LA. Both teams underperformed in the 2nd halves of games last year, but this will still be a game I’m putting on the “main screen” and live betting if we can get a sense of how the matchups are playing out. With a nice high total, I wouldn’t blame a guy for just taking Miami straight up if you like them, but I’ll be using the safety net in this one.

Jaguars/Colts over 46

I’m obviously a Jaguars believer this year, but I’m also a realist, and I realize their defense is still going to be a bottom half of the league unit. In today’s NFL teams can win playoff games with a bad defense if the offense is consistently good, so I’m still bullish long term, but again I realize that this team is going to give up some points.

Of the QBs who played at least 500 snaps, Lawrence was 6th in adjusted EPA/play with Christian Kirk as his WR1. Adding Ridley to the equation along with another Tank Bigsby for RB depth and this team should be cooking with gas.

It’s very hard to ascertain exactly what we’ll be getting from the Colts, but I expect it to look something like the 2H of the Bears’ games last year. Shane Steichen is a proven offensive play-caller who has been given a freak athlete to mold into an NFL-caliber QB. Without Jonathan Taylor and likely Zach Moss, maybe we see more designed runs sprinkled in for Richardson. I’d love to see this offense really get its footing against a lower-tier defense. It might not be until the 2H, but I expect they’ll be able to move the ball with Richardson, Pittman, and whoever else wants to step up.

My Favorite Teaser: Pittsburgh +8/Washington -1

I’ll also be making a ton of combinations of these two with Browns +1.5, Titans +2.5, Packers +1.5, and Jets +2.5, but these two are my favorite legs according to my pricing.

Both home games host West Coast teams coming in, both teams with very good defenses and both games sitting on nice low totals. Hopefully, this is enough to tamp down the variance and just let me get away with using a non-Wong leg right off the bat.

Try not to pay more than -120 on 6-point NFL teasers, -110 is great if you still can find a book that lets you, but I will say it’s going to be hard to beat the market with these long term if you’re paying -130 or worse.

Should be able to do this all season, but as I mentioned when talking about defensive awards. My guy Noonan not only breaks down the usage, snaps, scheme, and matchups for every defensive player, but he also has detailed info on how team’s official scorekeeper’s tendencies.

So, just like Connor’s prop from Friday, if you want more of these, you can always join the 4for4 betting Discord. Noonan has five other defensive props this week, as well as some other props, sides, and team totals.

Logan Wilson (CIN) Over 7.5 tackles + assists (+120, DK)

“Baseline projection of 8.18, plus a substantial bump for the matchup vs. CLE and scorekeeper. 17 and 8 in the 2 games vs. CLE last year. Playable to 7.5 (-120)”

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