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Three Big Things

1. Goff might be the MVP. Yeah, a ton of it is scheme and roster, but he’s executing at the highest level right now. I’m done fighting it.

2. We are running out of QBs. Jayden Daniels, Deshaun Watson, even Snoop Huntley, and DTR! Daniel Jones was benched in a bad one, and it doesn’t look as if Mason Rudolph is any sort of upgrade in Tenny.

3. Some bad teams are going to make the playoffs in the AFC (current playoff picture)

My best take ahead of Sunday

Backing well-coached teams worked. Teasing a couple of short dogs that both won outright in the Lions and Chiefs was my best look of the weekend (low bar). Even after giving up a fumble return TD to the Vikings and Mahomes throwing multiple picks, it’s just really tough to be giving either of these teams points right now, even on the road. It’s funny to think that the current #1 seeds in both conferences were underdogs this weekend.

My worst take ahead of Sunday

Trusting the Patriots? It was a nice first 15 minutes or so! Things quickly went sideways as the Pats offense found itself stuck in mud for most of the rest of the game. My big takeaway from this one is that the Pats will be bad next year, too. This coaching staff likely isn’t up to the task, but since Kraft ordained it in the manner he did, they likely survive at least one more year. Maybe we’ll luck out and they’ll at least jettison OC Alex Van Pelt for Christmas.

My Good take that didn’t work out

Man, I really thought we were in good shape on the Green Bay/Houston over. The live total had teetered close to 60 when I was checking it and then the rug was pulled. It was a nice performance by a Green Bay pass rush that I disparaged!

Full recap tonight at 7ET if you want to hop in the live chat and yell at me for a bad week of betting:

Market

This one hasn’t strayed far from the opener of -3.5. Some early-week Ravens money saw it out to -4 for a bit, but it’s been back to 3.5 for the past few days.

The lookahead on this total was down in the 47-48 range but opened 49-50. We did see initial moves to the under, pressing this back down to 48 before it’s crept back up all week.

Injuries

The good: After popping up on the injury report, WR Mike Evans will play! Also, center Graham Barton will return for the Bucs after missing last week’s game.

The bad: CB Jamel Dean (hamstring), TE Payne Durham (calf), and WR Kameron Johnson are OUT for tonight. Tyrek Funderburk will fill in for Dean at corner.

WR Trey Palmer (concussion), DT Vita Vea (hamstring), and RB Rachaad White (foot) come into the game questionable for Tampa. Vea was held out of Saturday’s practice after tweaking his hammy, but it’s said that it was more of a precautionary measure.

For the Ravens, LB Malik Harrison is ruled out with a groin injury. DT Broderick Washington is doubtful with a knee injury. CB Arthur Maulet is questionable with knee and hamstring issues.

Matchup

Two teams averaging damn near 30 points per game here.

Baker has looked great, the Bucs running game is looking much more complementary and the WR tandem is still intact despite a little scare this week. Now it’s time to face another legit opponent to see if they belong in the upper echelon of the NFC or simply just “NFC South favorites”.

The Ravens’ run game has not only put up numbers (1200+ yards combined for Jackson and Henry), but it’s been efficient. Running, by its nature, isn’t usually going to look good in the advanced stats in volume. Only seven teams have a positive EPA/play on the sum of their running plays. Baltimore is #1 with a bullet, gaining over 0.1 EPA per run. The league average is roughly -0.075 per play.

The fun part of this matchup is certainly the weakness of the Ravens’ defense: their pass coverage. It’s graded out as one of the worst in the league and faces a serious test against Godwin and Evans. If Baker continues to extend plays and can attack the middle of the field that’s been troublesome for Baltimore, moving the ball should be easy, right? The fly in the ointment will be if we get a stubborn play-caller willing to waste too many downs on low-percentage runs against an incredible run defense. Remember I said that the league average run is about -0.075 EPA. When teams run against the Ravens, they are averaging -0.228. Nearly three times worse.

Betting

I’m sitting on some Bucs +4 from Lookahead Friday last week, and while my numbers say I show a bit of value on Tampa at the current price, I don’t think I’ll be adding on.

I do think I’ll be watching this total a bit for some live betting tonight. A Tampa Bay lead would likely be an over look for me. Tampa trying to run more with a lead isn’t going to be good for keeping drive alive and it’d put the Ravens in a spot where they would be attacking more through the air against a corner back named Tyrek Funderburk.

Market

The Chargers were -2.5 point favorites on the lookahead and Sunday opener, but we had late week money push this down to -1 on Friday. There was some buyback over the weekend, but game day money continues to side with Arizona.

The total opened at 43.5 and was beat down pretty hard early in the week, getting below 42 at some shops. Good injury news has driven it back up past the opener and up to 44 or 44.5, depending on where you shop.

Injuries

LB Owen Pappoe (hip) and DL Darius Robinson (calf) are ruled out for Arizona.

RB Trey Benson (illness), T Christian Jones (ankle), DL Roy Lopez (ankle), CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (neck), LB Kyzir White (knee), and CB Garrett Williams (groin) are questionable.

Good news for the wide receiver corps: Marvin Harrison Jr. is cleared to play, and Zay Jones and Michael Wilson are in and healthy.

For the Chargers: CB Deane Leonard (hamstring) has been ruled out, and LB Joey Bosa (hip), TE Hayden Hurst (groin), and WR Quentin Johnston (ankle) are listed as Doubtful

WR DJ Chark Jr. (groin), WR Derius Davis (hamstring), WR Simi Fehoko (shoulder/groin), CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring), WR Ladd McConkey (hip), and CB Ja’Sir Taylor (fibula) are questionable.

Matchup

Simply put, this Cardinals defense is nearing rock bottom. Not just bad, but bad and injured at this point. I don’t know how this one will play out (wouldn’t that be nice?), but it really seems as if the Chargers could get whatever they want on the ground against this battered, bruised bunch of backups that make up the front seven here.

The Chargers may indeed have to lean on that run game with Quentin Johnson out. I don’t know how much they’ll end up using rookie WR Brenden Rice, but he’s a fun name to keep an eye on (I put a small bet on anytime TD at 9/1 tonight). Maybe I’m overrating a Chargers offense in this one, but they did end up putting up a nice performance early on against the tough Broncos defense and now get the polar opposite for an opponent.

As for the Cardinals offense, there’s been some hiccups. They looked a little sloppy last week vs Green Bay and there’ve been plenty of pundits calling out the team for how they’re using their star rookie WR. I tend to believe in Kyler when he has his full complement of weapons around him and playing at home with an extra day to prep should be massive for the offensive game planning.

Betting

Getting the worst of the number I suppose, but the cumulative advantage I’m seeing for both offenses tonight is enough for me to think this should probably be on the other side of 45. The offensive red zone numbers could be a little better, but again, looking at a healthy WR room for Arizona with Bosa likely sitting coupled with a Chargers offense existing and showing up to the game versus Arizona, I’d expect both teams to find the mid-20s.

OVER 44

Also, I am a little ahead of the game this week on injury news. Everything I have in my notes so far, in article form: