Monday Night Football

DraftKings is the official odds provider of the Deep Dive Newsletter

Doug Pederson has made it this long, so I’ll save any thoughts I have on his imminent firing for the next one.

Danny Dimes was not so lucky.

Plenty of opinions on the “why” of this move, but I will say that looking at this from the outside, it seems like the prudent move for a 2-8 team. You don’t run the risk of Jones getting hurt and messing up the finances, you get the weird goodwill of the fans who loved Tommy Cutlets last year, and you more than likely continue to lose games and can go after a top QB next April. Maybe I’m misreading this, but it also feels like a bit of a stamp of approval for the coaching staff as well, letting them tank and rebuild.

We did a quickfire recap podcast last night and started to look ahead to week 12. A fun situational spot this upcoming week is the Vikings in a back-to-back-to-back road game stretch ending Sunday at Soldier Field. I ran a quick query on how teams have done in this spot since 2000, and it’s not as if they’re getting murdered! Straight-up winners only 37% of the time, but as you can see in the average moneyline, much more often than not, these teams are underdogs rather than favorites, as the Vikings are.

The other two occurrences of this in 2024 were the Bills as 1-point favorites heading to the Meadowlands, where they beat the Jets 23-20, and the Browns losing to the Eagles in week six 20-16 as 8-point dogs. Both teams covered the closing spread.

Funnily enough, the next one will be Bears Vikings as well. The Bears head on the road next week to start a three-week stretch of travel that culminates in Minneapolis in week 15.

My best take ahead of Sunday

It seemed like my best win was going to be laying -1 with the Chargers for a good part of last night until Joe Burrow started to toss it deep on every other play. It was very hard to sleep after that one.

I still got the W there in the end, so I think I’ll have to give it to the Vikings playing another very good game defensively. They limited the Titans to around a 25% success rate, the worst of the 26 teams that have played so far this week (Dallas has yet to play). Even losing track of a WR on a 98-yard TD pass, this was a clean kill for Minny.

My worst take ahead of Sunday

I was very much not in tune with Sean Payton’s thought process on using Audric Estime and got far too cute rather than simply typing out “Broncos -2” for all the same reasons. This Atlanta defense was banged up and battered and actually saw a couple more players get injured this week. It’s wild how far we’ve come with Bo Nix. He still needs to prove it against good defenses but wins like this make you hopeful that he has a higher ceiling than previously imagined. This was a big one for the Broncos’ playoff hopes as both the teams chasing them (Phins, Colts) won as well.

My Good take that didn’t work out

Josh Allen going superhero on me like that wasn’t great for teasers involving the Chiefs. The Bills winning a game at home as a favorite wasn’t some wild result, but I’m a little dumbfounded that the Chiefs weren’t a bit more aggressive in the 2nd half. Thin margins, I suppose, but losing by multiple scores didn’t seem terribly likely considering their defense (which did a fine job for the most part against the run). Hat tip to Josh, this could end up being an enjoyable MVP race down the stretch, and with the Ravens looking pedestrian on offense yesterday, his timing couldn’t have been more impeccable.

Market

It opened at -7.5 and has been back and forth all week long, currently sitting at an expensive -7. The total has seen steady under money after sitting at 43.5 on the lookahead, opening at 42.5/43 and quickly sliding down to 42 and finally down to 41 again over the past 24 hours.

Injuries

Nico Collins is finally back! He’ll play for the first time since exiting the game against Buffalo in week 5.

Despite being a bit healthier on defense, the Texans will be without a couple of key pieces up front. DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle), DT Foley Fatukasi (foot), and OT Blake Fisher (concussion) have all been ruled out.

CB Kamari Lassiter (concussion) and cornerback Jeff Okudah (quad) are questionable. Lassiter practiced over the weekend, which is a good sign, but he still needs to be officially cleared from the protocol to play tonight.

The Cowboys have ruled out three players ahead of tonight’s game: CB DaRon Bland (Foot), CB Jourdan Lewis (Neck), and FB Hunter Luepke (Calf)

OT Chuma Edoga (Toe), WR CeeDee Lamb (Back), G Zack Martin (Shoulder), and LB Nick Vigil (foot) are questionable. Head Coach Mike McCarthy says that he’s not concerned about Lamb’s injury, but it popped up late, and coaches have been known to lie. I guess we’ll find out when official reports are out 90 minutes before kick.

Matchup

This one looked good on paper in August.

I currently have the Cowboys as the 29th-best offense and 24th-best defense, a far cry from where my numbers sat this summer. Everything that we worried about came to fruition (bad run game, OL concerns, defense regressing), plus the team had the ultimate season killer: losing the starting QB. Not sure how to sugar-coat this one, there’s a fair chance this game looks similar to the Eagles matchup from last week.

Maybe I’m a bit high here, but I have Houston rated as a top-5 defense, even with Will Anderson temporarily sidelined. The pass rush is a deep group, and the secondary has been able to take advantage of the pressure generated to become a team that ranks 5th in rushing success rate against and 4th in dropback success rate against.

We’ll see just how involved Nico is tonight. Hamstrings are a tricky injury for players who need to be sprinting so often. Ideally, for Houston, the game turns into a state where they can lean heavily on the run as soon as possible, allowing Collins to ease his way back into full-speed football again. Not only that, but it should still allow the Texans to extend the lead. Dallas is now DEAD LAST in rushing EPA/play on defense, giving up 0.078 per play, almost double the 31st-ranked Carolina Panthers. My only worry is that Mixon might wear himself out.

Jonathan Mingo makes his Cowboys debut tonight! He should be a real vertical x-receiver that they can attempt to stretch the field with, but he hasn’t really done it yet at the NFL level. Some film guys also say he’s not great against press coverage, and Houston does love to attack the line of scrimmage all the way across the field. I’d love to see something good happen to this poor team eventually, but I will go out on a limb and say that Jonathan Mingo may not be the one to turn this franchise around.

Big positive for both teams: It’ll be dark out and the sun won’t be glaring into anyone’s eyes this week.

Betting

This is the final piece of a nerve-wracking set of lookahead bets that I made two Fridays ago that included the never-in-doubt, number-didn’t-matter Bears +3. I played some under 42.5 and obviously agree with the market movement thus far.

I think CeeDee Lamb plays tonight, and honestly, I don’t know if it’s some huge boon to other player props if he does sit. I want him out there, drawing coverage and attention away from the hard-working middle-class players that I’d like to be betting on in this one. With Hunter Luepke sidelined, I’m looking for a heavy dose of Rico tonight as they try to get anything going offensively against a tough Houston pass rush/secondary. Checkdowns and screen passes could reign supreme, and I would think Rico is out there for at least 60% of snaps. Taking a small shot at a nice price on him to get at least 4 catches

Rico Dowdle o3.5 receptions +135