We took a quick look gdid OROY last week, mostly looking at it from the standpoint of guys that have a shot if Caleb struggles. The defensive side of the ball is much more wide-open it seems, with half a dozen guys or so under 20/1 in the opening odds.

Odds (DraftKings)

What did we learn last year?

Maybe from the last couple of years.

Edge Rushers = Quarterbacks, if you want an analogy to OROY. They are going to have a leg up over D-backs and interior defensive linemen for sure. Linebackers and Safeties need not apply for the most part; you need to really have a special season nowadays to move the needle as an off-ball LB. The voters aren’t excited about 6 half tackles in holding the opponent’s run game in check.

Corners really need a standout year to get it done, but they certainly can win. With a couple drafted high every year, it seems like guys with opportunity can push their way into the conversation.

2023: Anderson and Carter were essentially co-favorites to win before the season and ended up 1-2, so things didn’t get too out of hand. Third-place vote-getter Kobie Turner was not listed in the screenshots and records I kept from pre-season last year, meaning he was at least 100-1 or better, so long shots in the right situation are still worth a look.

Guys (Mostly Edge Rushers) Who Can Win

Opportunity trumps all, but this is a fun chart from Seth, who attempted to model out expected sack numbers for the rookie class.

Dallas Turner, OLB, Minnesota +450 (Caesars)

The opportunity will certainly be there, even with some offseason acquisitions, they did lose Hunter and will need plenty of reps out of the rookie. Brian Flores can and will run a very aggressive defensive scheme if he has the players to do it with. Additionally, he may be dropping into coverage a bit. A few pass breakups or picks to go with 8-10 sacks would go a long way toward Bama defenders winning this back-to-back year. A big question will be usage. Players can win this without being on the field constantly (go look at Anderson and Carter’s snap counts), but Turner realizing his full potential as a 3-down player would be massive.

Laiatu Latu, Edge, Indianapolis +650 (Caesars)

Like Turner, there is a bit of traffic to wade through to get playing time on the edge, but the strong interior DTs should be a boon to all the youth at the edge for the Colts. “The first defender off the board” label helps anchor him to the top a bit in our minds, and if he plays well, the narrative will likely turn to one where we wonder how high he would have gone without the injury concerns.

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Philadelphia +1200 (FanDuel)

Getting teamed up with a good pass rush is ideal for any cornerback, but it should make his transition into the NFL even easier. Despite some falloff from the pair of vets, he still has a great set of potential mentors in James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Cornerbacks need some counting stats and splash plays to win this, but if he wins the starting spot opposite Slay, I think it’s in the cards.

Jared Verse, Edge, LA Rams +1200 (FanDuel)

Maybe the Rams’ scoring department is great at identifying young defensive line talent? Maybe the coaches are great at developing them quickly? Maybe they just got lucky with edge rusher Byron Young and defensive tackle Kobie Turner? Maybe it’s all of the above?

Either way, a team led by an offensive-minded head coach got to pick in the first round for the first time in a long spell and STILL went out and got this guy. Power rusher on a team with a vacuum up front left by the retirement of #99 with some young talent around him. Why not?

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A Few Longer Shots

I’ll update notes on 30-40 of the top rookies over the spring and summer and come up with a good list of guys with sneaky chances come August, but for now, I wanted to take a look at a couple that are in the front of my mind here in May.

Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay +3500 (Caesars)

I’m a little wary because of how Green Bay has used defensive rookies recently, but with a new DC and a gaping hole to fill, I would think Cooper gets plenty of usage. His biggest knock is, for sure, just the fact that he’s an off-ball linebacker. He will need to have the counting stats AND the big plays that get people talking.

Junior Colson, LB, LA Chargers +5000 (DraftKings)

First, he’s getting a job right away and should see plenty of snaps. The guys around him have been injured constantly, so maybe he’s even in line for a promotion here. Again, an interior LB, but another one in a spot to put up some big stats based on how many snaps he should see.

Chris Braswell, Edge, Tampa Bay, +6000 (FanDuel)

This is a sneaky one I like a bit and may actually add to my portfolio this summer. He really only has the one year of production on paper, but he was playing at Alabama and sometimes it’s hard to stand out when everyone’s a 5-Star and an NFL prospect. Got his shot last year and put up some nice stats. Athletic as all get-up, but will need to prove he should be getting a heavy dose of the pash rushing reps with a strong camp and preseason campaign.

My guy Noonan took a look at a bunch of defenders from an IDP standpoint (which, even if you don’t play, is a good way to start to gauge usage estimates)

Schedule Releases

Everyone already knew all of their opponents; this was putting them in order and sorting out what channel/streaming platform/immersive viewing experience each one would be on.

There are some nuggets, and plenty of them are plastered all over the internet as we speak, but for the most part, things like “net rest disadvantage” likely aren’t a massive factor in a team's performance this year.

Teams have continued to improve their processes for travel, and often times, a big chunk of the disadvantage is isolated to a couple-week stretch. I guarantee these teams are also looking at that and working on solutions to mitigate any negative effects from rest, travel, or timing disadvantages.

My only real takeaways:

1. The Chargers are still king when it comes to putting out great schedule-release videos. Getting a Butker jab in there on that short of a turnaround is pretty impressive.

2. Most other teams should stay in their lane; a few were trying too hard. I will credit the Titans for going with the old “if it ain’t broken…” approach

3. Some goofy spots will create some betting opportunities. We’ll look at the 32 schedules and start picking out some buy/sell spots for teams with lopsided-looking years. Podcast this summer, as always.

4. I believe in my heart that there should NEVER BE fewer than 4 games in the late window. A 10/3 split is a travesty.