2024 NFL OROY Early Look

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I'm starting to dig in on the season, and since it’s post-draft, a big part of my making my early numbers for teams is doing some projecting on how the free agents and rookies will fit in.

Since that process is long and boring, I took a bit of a side quest into the offensive rookie of the year markets just to get an early gauge on how things might shake out.

Odds from DraftKings, I used 4for4’s futures tool to hunt the best price

I hate draft grades since it’s just guessing for clicks, but as always, some teams go into the draft with a leg up. The Bears having the top pick despite being more like a middle of the pack team that’s on the upswing is massive. Boom, you get an A+ and your QB is the favorite.

Caleb Williams landed in a dream spot in a lot of senses. He wins this award, going away in many likely scenarios. But that’s no fun, so like last week at the derby, we’ll dig through the field and try to beat the favorite.

So, who can beat the presumptive favorite here? Let’s say the start in Chicago is a bit rocky, and playing in a new offense in a tough division turns out to be difficult! We’ve seen plenty of top picks struggle early on.

Where does that leave us?

Obvious Answers

A few answers seem logical enough

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona (+700, FD) - Not dropping into the ideal situation, but this is still a spot with an above-average QB, a coach that seems to be overperforming so far, and an opportunity for miles. The Cardinals’ win total is set at 6.5 right now. They should be trailing in plenty of games, giving him lots of time to showcase his talents.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota (+1400, FD) - Maybe just as good of a situation as Caleb, actually probably better. The offensive line is certainly better, the WR1 is the NFL WR1. I also think KOC is a better coach, and this will be a better offensive scheme. His talent may not be where Caleb’s is, but sometimes surroundings matter more, and he could certainly thrive. Final note: they play each other twice. Winning those games would really drive the narrative if they are both playing well (for either QB).

Malik Nabers, WR, NY Giants (+1400, FD) - Talent and opportunity. Big question marks at the QB position, but we’ve seen a WR use his talent to quickly become the #1 option on his team and win this thing (in the NYC market, to boot) just two years ago! Here’s the QB stats from Garrett Wilson’s OROY campaign

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City (+2000, FD) - Pat Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Rashee Rice are possibly facing a suspension. We’re a full 2 years past the Tyreek Hill trade, and we’re still looking for his replacement. The Chiefs have done an admirable job reconfiguring the offense to center around Kelce, but he’s not getting any younger, and teams are starting to adjust. It might be time to dust off the 2021 playbook.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville (+3000, FD) - It was a need. He’s probably your WR2 and sees the field a ton, and you have a good (enough) QB here. I don't see as many targets vacated as Coleman or the high-end QB/HC combo that Worthy has, but it's still a nice spot for a very talented kid.

Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo (+3000, MGM) - There are a trillion vacated targets, and you arguably have the 2nd best quarterback throwing to you. The team didn’t do a whole lot else to address this position, so the assumption is that he and Dalton Kincaid will be leaned on fairly heavily in the passing game. If the offense hums, he’s likely having a big year.

Cross Offs

Some guys I just can’t get behind, even at bigger prices.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago (+2500, DK) - The calculus of this happening seems tough to fathom. If he’s having a big year, if the Bears are winning games, if the offense is taking a big step forward… it’s likely Caleb Williams is playing well and will win this award. This number actually seems terrible, considering that, plus the other two WRs that this team has ahead of him.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas (+4000 FD) - This one hurts me, because I was excited for him, but between the QB situation (Minshew/AOC), the new coaching regime and Davante Adams being a true blue WR1, it’s tough. Plus, a TE has never won (I think one may in the next 20 years as the position keeps evolving).

Ladd McConkey, WR, LA Chargers (+3000, FD) - It just sounds like this is going to be a run-first offense. I like the guy, but at this price, I don’t see a world where he’s turning into the best WR in the class and making a run at an award.

Massive Question Marks

Two quick points:

1. As QBs who could start a full season as a rookie, you CANNOT ever rule them out.

2. At the current prices, I’m much closer to “Cross Off” than “Buy” on all three.

I’ll try to lay out the best-case scenario for all three; some of this may feel closer to fan fiction, though:

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington (+650, DK) - Kliff Kingsbury finally lives up to his promise and puts together an offense that works by making it tailored to Daniels’ strengths. Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Jahan Dotson are capable.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver (+2000, FD) - Maybe the silly conspiracy theories about Sean Payton sabotaging Russ were true, and he comes back this year with an offensive scheme that we’re used to seeing from the future HOFer. Being 2nd best in the AFC West would carry some weight.

Drake Maye, QB, New England (+2000, FD) - Alex Van Pelt has to turn out to be a home run hire and get a ton out of a very ugly roster. (At least) one of the WRs has to really take a big step forward. Can I sell you on “JJ being a star was holding KJ Osborn back?”

How About the Next Puka?

I’ve thought long and hard about how to try to identify some of these guys who come in with less fanfare and quickly add themselves to the conversation.

Obviously, a QB playing well still trumps all (Puka had 100+ catches and damn near 1500 yards last year and still got TWO 1st place votes to Stroud’s 48), but a longshot bomb that starts to accrue some value gives you some nice options to build a portfolio with the favorite(s) to try to end up in the black.

Plenty of deep shots on the board, and I’m not sure there’s anything you can take away from the Nacua year to help you find the next guy. The Kupp injury giving him some runway to earn the trust of McVay and Stafford surely helped, but the guy is just flat out talented. Again, having a top offensive mind calling plays and a top 10 QB surely helped, but sometimes a guy just makes the transition to the NFL look so damn easy with no discernable evidence as to why.

I’ve got all summer to sort out the guys who’ll take my money at 75/1 when we hear from the beat reporters that “the QB and him are vibing, he might jump into the starting lineup, maybe as high as WR2!” For now, I have a shortlist I’ll be watching.

Trying to find guys who landed somewhere with:

1. A good QB

2. A good coach/OC/offensive scheme

3. Opportunity to play and accumulate stats

4. A big price

the list is pretty short and has some flaws, but it’s only May.

Ricky Pearsall (WR, 49ers) +6000, FD
Jermaine Burton (WR, Bengals) +7500, FD
Malachi Corley (WR, NYJ) +15000, MGM

(I struggled to make a case for some of the Running Backs. Maybe you have a hot tip/scenario where one really does it up this year; let me know.)

Giving Me Something to Think About

Last night we spent damn near an hour just ripping through the Rookies that will contribute right away. I had five or so that I think have some high upside, a couple on both sides of the ball:

Spending the weekend, one final time this spring, in a gym at a volleyball tournament. I’ll be in the cafeteria (during the hour-long breaks) on my tablet, digging into the DROY markets for next week; catch ya then.