Championship Sunday

With just the two games to talk about all week, it feels like we’re at the point of overthinking things. Golf and tennis are finished up for the week, leaving very few distractions left to eat up the hours before we get kick-off in Baltimore.

Enjoy it! Just two more weeks of Hoopla and then this newsletter quickly turns into nothing but mock drafts and hoping that Prize Picks hangs 40-yard dash times for the combine again.

Market

Heavy support for the home team here. This opened -3.5 and pushed out to -4 by midweek, now showing -4.5 at most shops. Possibly aided by the injury news being better for Baltimore than KC.

The total has been back and forth between 44 and 44.5 all week.  I liked the under here and Drew liked the over on the show. Maybe a bit of a microcosm of the split market.

Weather

Rain is very likely. Depending on where you look, anywhere from 45-75% chance of some precipitation during this one. Winds out of the north (would be across the field), but not expected to be heavy, maybe 10 mph or so. Temps in the mid-40s.

Injuries

Kansas City: LG Joe Thuney is out, and Nick Allegretti will again be his fill-in. Derrick Nnadi is again out on the KC defensive line. WR Kadarius Toney is also out for his hip injuries/personal reasons.

S Mike Edwards, LB Willie Gay, and RB Isiah Pacheco are listed as questionable. Pacheco is expected to play while Gay is “trending toward playing”. Edwards still needs to officially clear concussion protocol but the fact that he was participating in practice Friday is a positive sign for that.

Baltimore: Mark Andrews is clear and without an injury designation. CBs Marlon Humphrey and Rock Ya-Sin are listed as questionable. Humphrey is expected to play. WR Tylan Wallace is also listed as questionable.

Matchup

We talked about it at length on the show, but the collective football IQ of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes versus what Mike Macdonald and the Baltimore defense do is going to be an electric matchup to watch.

A huge step up in class from playing an injured Buffalo unit, we’ll see if a team that’s been teetering on the precipice of “are they still an elite offense” all year can get it done against a defense that will spend the entire game peppering you with simulated blitzes, disguised coverages and free rushing corners.

For the Ravens’ offense: was the 1st half versus the Texans just rust? Lamar’s last game action was versus Miami on New Year’s Eve, and even in that one he was yanked early. If we see the well-oiled machine that was the 2nd half of last week’s win (or God willing, the offense that showed up versus Miami that day), they should get the win, maybe in a rout.

But, like the Chiefs, this is a step up in difficulty as well. The Chiefs’ defense, when fully healthy, has been murder on opposing WRs. Hopefully, they realize the game plan that Buffalo put together was good and manage to execute a better version of it. A steady dose of OC Todd Monken spreading the field out to allow Jackson to run, the tight ends to eat across the middle and the running backs to have space to turn short passes into medium games feels like a Baltimore beatdown. So, I’m ready to do the dumbest thing possible over the past few years of NFL betting: doubt Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs (getting points, even!).

Bets

My initial leans on Monday were the Ravens and the under. I haven’t wavered off of that but still think I like some game plan/game state-based props more in this one.

Pat Mahomes o4.5 rushing attempts -121

Justice Hill o14.5 receiving yards -110

Mark Andrews o3.5 receptions +125

Lamar Jackson o66.5 rushing yards -110

Lamar Jackson over 100 rushing yards +310

Check out Friday’s Newsletter to see one bonus prop from Connor Allen!

Market

Early week action saw this -7 dip down to -6.5, but San Francisco money followed shortly. It's out to -7.5 since midweek and holding mostly steady with some interest in Detroit at that number, but for the most part, not enough to get us back to a flat 7.

The total has been bet up slightly off the opener (51). Mostly 51.5 in the market with a few 52s popping up.

Weather

Comfy! Upper 60s, low 70s with some clouds and light breezes.

Injuries

San Francisco: Deebo Samuel is good to go after practicing on Thursday and Friday.

Detroit: Ruled out LG Jonah Jackson and WR Kalif Raymond again. Sam LaPorta has no injury designation. Neither does Frank Ragnow, despite having most of his body listed as injured earlier in the week.

Matchup

The big question to answer: why was Brock Purdy sort of bad last week?

If you think it was the weather conditions/rust, I think you’re fine laying whatever number you want here against the Lions’ defense. If you think it was the gravity of the moment, a do-or-die playoff game, then I’m not so sure. A bigger game against a better opponent isn’t going to cure that all of a sudden.

I tend to think it was the former and made a case for the 49ers early and often as my power ratings had this price above -8. With the Lions finally having to travel for the playoffs, think the dream run for the Motor City Kitties is likely over.

Short of Josh Johnson trotting out to play QB again, I am bravely proclaiming the team favored by over a touchdown at the team I have predicted to win.

Very interested to see what Detroit OC Ben Johnson cooks up against a defense that’s been a bit hard to grade. The run-stop efficiency for the 49ers’ defense is tricky to actually get a grip on since so many of their games have turned into contests where the opponent is forced to throw to catch up.

They surrender a 40%+ success rate on the ground but sometimes get away with it, again, because the offensive output has afforded it.

The Lions do love to use both backs and have become a bit more rush-centric as the year has progressed, but against a beleaguered secondary and with a fully healthy Sam LaPorta, I’ll be curious which direction they head.

Will they be a team that attacks the defense knowing full well they’ll likely need to score 28+ to get this one, or a team that plays a bit of ball control to limit the 49ers’ opportunities? Either way may not be enough to make up for a porous defense that has gotten gashed a couple of times on the road this year.

Bets

I’ll go down with the ship at home if need be. As a rule, I don’t love spending on the juice and don’t recommend paying the -120 to get to -7 on the side. If you have some off-market number and can get -115 or better, I’d say go nuts though.

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst with Shanahan’s aggressiveness in the red zone. Might need some longer TDs to get the team total home, but after what he’s been through in the playoffs, I can’t see a reason to take the foot off the gas and leave anything to doubt here.

49ers -7.5 -105

49ers team total over 30.5 -112

Monday we’ll have a way too early first look at the Super Bowl, recapping the games from today and any new injuries or storylines. Good Luck, Have Fun, Bet Responsibly!