🍺Friday Free Bet Returns: Prop Bet for Lions/49ers

Connor has a look in the NFC Title Game, plus a quick synopsis of the two remaining coaching openings

Drew and I spent a good amount of time on all the matchups of interest in the Championship games this weekend on the live stream. My initial opinions haven’t changed much since Monday outside of my (very warranted) fear of liking an under in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes possibly playing from a deficit.

Sunday morning early I’ll have a full card of action including some props and derivatives I’ll sprinkle for the AFC/NFC title games.

Catching Up

Coaching Circus

Just two spots remain and it looks like the greatest coach of all time is taking a gap year at age 71.

It’s wild to me, but apparently, the eggs were all in the Atlanta basket and the discord in the front office was real. Raheem Morris gets the job and Bill may be SOL for the ‘24 season.

The two remaining openings are being patient, but some of that comes from the interest in coordinators who are still coordinating. There are rules about interviewing these guys and you cannot hire someone until they are eliminated. A Lions/Ravens Super Bowl may push decisions even further out.

Seattle

Have interviewed eight coordinators and reportedly are also interested in Mike Vrabel. Second interviews with Mike Kafka (NYG OC), Patrick Graham (LV DC), and Dan Quinn (DAL DC) were completed this week with another scheduled with Ejiro Evero (CAR DC).

Honestly, not a ton of signal coming on which direction they are headed here, but they were looking to schedule a second interview with Raheem Morris as well before he took the Atlanta job. The apparent lean towards a defensive-minded HC is interesting as teams often tend to change direction with this after having one or the other for some time and are looking for a change.

This could be an even tougher transition considering what they’ve lost in offensive coaches over the past year or so (Dave Canales, Shane Waldron). Sometimes a team just knows who they are though. I’d love to see them try something different, but it feels like they won’t.

My Prediction: Dan Quinn

Washington

Dan Quinn is getting a third interview after a virtual meeting early and one in-person interview so far. They’ve been linked to eight other candidates and appear to be taking their time as well. They are unable to conduct second interviews with coaches on teams still alive in the playoffs until this coming Monday.

They are rumored to have both Lions coordinators scheduled to come in on Monday and have done virtual interviews with Ravens DC Mike Macdonald and DL Coach Anthony Weaver as well. They are free to move ahead immediately with other candidates and have already completed a second interview with Texans OC Bobby Slowik. 

My Prediction: Ben Johnson

From Edge Boost

Discover the game-changing power of EDGE Boost! It's like Buy Now Pay Later for sports betting.  With the EDGE Boost Visa card, you can double down on any bet with ZERO interest – EDGE makes money from VISA processing fees. Simply, pay it back over four equal, interest-free weekly installments.

Newsletter subscribers get an exclusive offer: Unlock $500 in capital instantly (Non-subscribers start at $50). Don't miss out on this opportunity to tilt the odds in your favor – take action now!

Contact [email protected] after signing up to activate the $500 offer.

Free Prop Friday!

Connor is back and has prop in the late game Sunday! As a Niners backer, I sort of love this one.

Jared Goff under 261.5 passing yards -115

I would play this to the 255.5 at FD. The roar has been restored but there are some massive warning signs for Goff in this game espcially from a pure yardage standpoint. First off, I fully expect the Lions to go run-heavy here. The 49ers struggled at times against the Packers running game last week and are just 27th in rushing success rate allowed and 28th in EPA. Meanwhile they are top 10 in both metrics vs the pass. We have seen the Lions scheme their gameplan to opponent's weaknesses like we we did last week with a pass heavy approach vs TB's pass-funnel defense. When the Lions do pass, the 49ers match up really well against the Lions. They blitz at one of the lowest rate in the league and get pressure at one of the highest rates, upwards of 40% since Chase Young was acquired (H/T Daigle).

Goff has been below average under pressure but especially when teams get pressure without blitzing which is what the 49ers D has been built on for literally years. Among the 39 QBs who have been pressured without a blitz (50+ dropbacks), Goff ranks 8th worst in completion rate at 45.2% and 14th worst in YPA and a -11% CPOE, the 5th worst. With the Lions potentially missing multiple starting lineman, Goff could find himself under pressure even more here. Goff's specific strength is throwing over the middle of the field.

The issue is, the Niners the Niners are #1 in DVOA at defending the middle of the field. On throws from 10-19 yards Goff has been specifically good. The Niners are top-3 in completion rate and YPA allowed against those throws. Even if the Niners present massive negative game script for the Lions, Goff's life is going to be made very, very difficult.

-Connor Allen, 4for4.com

And for the second to last time this season, he, Noonan, and Slop will get together and talk through another handful of props they like for this weekend at 3 pm EST today ⬇⬇⬇