I’ve honestly been a little bummed out by this draft cycle with the lack of leaked info, but writing up yesterday’s newsletter inspired me a bit to dig into the nuggets I had mentioned and quit whining about the uncertainty. Instead, I will pivot and attack it.

I could try to prognosticate and play some over/unders on players based on feel, but I think I’d rather have the upside of longer prices for truly feasible outcomes.

Just like I talked about on Monday, there are too many damn teams that all have the same needs. Just because the sportsbook lists you at -250 to take an offensive lineman first doesn’t mean five tackles can’t be drafted in the eight picks leading up to yours. Some teams will trade back in this scenario, and some will trade up in the midst of the run, but I do think we’ll see at least a handful of teams that are forced to pivot to secondary and tertiary needs or simply select a “Best Player Available” due to a hot prospect dropping into their lap.

Ten Bets I’m Making

As a note, I’m going to hunt down the best odds at a legal book for these and I’ll just have to scrape up whatever I can find amongst the best options Costa Rica, Latvia, and the local American Legion have to offer me (or drive to Illinois for supper).

If you find a way better price or you think you have an even better long shot in one of these markets, by all means, DM me.

THESE ARE NOT LARGE BETS. Partially due to the longer shot nature, but also for the most part, these aren’t terribly liquid markets comparatively. If you play any of these, do so with a touch of responsibility.

1. Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player

I’m not going to belabor the point, but just because a team badly needs a position doesn’t mean they will be able to draft that position at their current slot. Without a trade-up, I really think the Bills are in a bit of a dead zone and would be reaching for a WR. Maybe knowing KC is likely to draft one as well pushes them to do something rash, but with the top options off the board, I could see them trading back rather in order to take more shots at WR later in the draft (Packers style).

We saw a very WR-needy team last year (see NYG April 1st depth chart) hold off and address other needs first (they went CB, Center, and THEN WR). Those were high needs for them as well and four WRs had just come off the board in front of them. These things happen.

So, the next best things they could add onto would be their defensive line, either interior or edge, or the defensive backfield, either cornerback or safety. Going to veer away from the corners since they will also be in demand and look at either a defensive lineman/edge if they were to stay put and just take BPA or a tickler (mostly based on price) if they were to trade back and snag Nubin.

Defensive Line/Edge +550 (FD)

Safety +3000 (DK)

2. 2nd Tight End Drafted

I think last year was a great indicator that the markets and probably the evaluators did a poor job of coming up with a consensus positional order for Tight Ends.

Now, let’s be clear, the first TE off the board isn’t in doubt, it’s the 2nd Tight End drafted market that I’m interested in. I don’t believe the gap between Ja'Tavion Sanders, Theo Johnson, Cade Stover, Ben Sinnott, and Jaheim Bell is very big. Furthermore, just like running back, the fact that these are going to be day 2 picks means that teams can very much start to weigh fit more than just overall talent. I would assume there are 32 very different boards that all start with Bowers and diverge quickly after that.

Most rankings have Sanders a firm 2nd but again, most places loved Darnell Washington last year and he ended up the 8th TE off the board. Sinnott has also gotten some love, but again this seems to be coming from the evaluators and not any actual team big board into.

Reading up on the two longshots I like: Stover has the receiving ability and likely puts up bigger numbers if he’s not stuck down the pecking order at Ohio State. Bell looks like a big upside guy who could turn into a gadget player in the right offense. All day today: big prices, no favorites.

Cade Stover +1600 (FanDuel)

Jaheim Bell +3000 (DraftKings)

3. Position of Houston Texans First Drafted Player

While some of the other ones I’m looking at are attackable based on the “favorite” being a very short price. I’m looking more at the Texans based on where they will be drafting.

Again, nothing is for certain and if a stud DT falls hard, they could move back into the first round and get him, but as of right now, I think moving on to several other positions makes just as much sense given the state of the roster and what it takes to truly compete.

I like CB as the pick over defensive line based on the needs of the other teams hanging in the first third of the 2nd round, but I also took a long shot at filling in a bit of a need behind Joe Mixon. Possibly even a spot where they trade back and their first pick is deeper into the 2nd.

Cornerback +300 (Everywhere)

Running Back +3000 (FD)

If you don’t like the dart on RB, and feel like yelling at me, you could direct your anger to this guy instead. He’s literally asking for your feedback:

4. Position of Seattle Seahawks First Drafted Player

Seems like every mock (including my last version) has Troy Fatanu going here, but I wonder just how big the need at OL actually is. Most of the issues in pass blocking last year hinged around injuries and players playing through them. I think fully healthy, they have a half-decent set of tackles. After free agency their more pressing need is likely interior OL and it may be a titch early to go drafting a guard.

This isn’t a big sexy number, but I think it’s much closer to a coin flip that they go defense, and take whatever edge or DT is best available. Aside from that, in a case where more teams have taken offensive line ahead of the 16th pick, leaving it thin, I would assume some CBs have dropped, so I like a flyer on adding to that young corps across from Woolen, allowing Witherspoon to become the agent of chaos we’ve seen flashes of.

Defensive Line/Edge +175 (FD)

Cornerback +1600 (FD)

5. Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player

Bit of a theme on these: a team expected to draft offense that might not get what they want. I explored this a bit yesterday and although they are the most likely team to move up, I do keep hearing Kwesi’s quote about there being a “walk away price”

So, based on where they sit at 11, if the Vikings are unable to work out a deal to get a top four QB, I would strongly consider them to take a defensive player.

Defensive Line/Edge +380 (FD)

Cornerback +1000 (FD)

I have more of these! I’m just running low on time today. I’m going to wake up tomorrow and fire off more small bets on longer prices, it may be my whole damn portfolio. I have at least 6 more teams I’m digging into as well as several First Safety, Linebacker, Running Back, and Second Offensive Lineman.