Been mashing together mocks quietly for the past few weeks, but with the info (or lack thereof) that’s been coming out, any changes I made from early versions felt forced simply by the groupthink and echo chamber of #DraftTwitter.

Strongly agree with Clevta’s take here. It’s not as if I’ve been privy to tons of insider info that leads to LOCKS each year, but every year you end up with a handful and it really does help shape the rest of your mock. I’m going to try my best and keep digging, but for the most part, this is going to be a toughie!

I did go for a walk and take in some podcasts this morning and wanted to share a few thoughts that I thought they nailed:

On the Athletic Football Show’s Football GM episode from the other day Mike and Randy made a very good point that further adds to the uncertainty. The Media (and by proxy all of us) is never in the know on a couple of things: how a team rates injury and character concerns. Teams may, and often do, come out and mention such concerns as reasons they passed afterward, but rarely say anything prior to the draft.

I’m not sure that last one helps me at all, maybe just another good excuse to miss badly on the mock.

Eric Eager and Ben Brown (Sumer Sports) made several good points about the betting markets heading into the draft on Thursday. I think these are probably evergreen points, but maybe stick out even more as in a draft with as much uncertainty as we’re seeing.

Discussing the “team to draft” exact position they argued against laying the favorite, especially at a steep price. Teams may have a plan, but a run at a position of need can quickly change things and turn you into a “best available player” drafter, losing you a juicy bet.

They also highlighted the fact that SO many teams have the same needs, and with more than half the league needing OL, WR, and CB, things can get wonky in a hurry. Especially teams later in the first round (or teams without a first-round pick).

Similarly, a position like RB that won’t see picks until day two also creates a reason to take some longer shots since every team likely has very different boards for the position. When you’re picking someone later in the process, fit often becomes more important than just overall talent.

They also got into the 5th year option, in the sense of teams wanting to trade back into the 1st round to have that available for a quarterback. Eric makes the case that most of us draftniks overvalue it and said it’s better to have the option on a position that’s harder to develop like offensive lineman rather than a QB or WR who hits some escalators and may be rather expensive, option or not.

Mock 3.0

Mock 3.0 supposes that the price is too steep to trade up for QBs and that the Vikes, Raiders, and Broncos need to make other plans. I tried to steer a little further from team needs in a few spots where the value was just not there based on who was taken in front of them while still being reasonable.

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Free Space, just adding words here to make it uniform.

2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Market movement over the last week wasn’t based on any real intel. The Agent stuff was horseshit, the Top Golf trip told us nothing. This is still just my gut feeling for the decision in D.C. I may still change this by Thursday.

3. New England - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

While it’s being put out there that they are listening to offers, I would think it would take such an over-the-top offer for a team to move here. They need to be asking for a hefty premium to go with the premium position being coveted. I have them staying and getting a QB.

4. Arizona - Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, Ohio State

Same thing: unless the offer from Minnesota or others is above and beyond what you expected to need here, why pass on what looks to be the best WR prospect we’ve seen in a handful of years. You have another first round pick already, i don’t think pick collection is the best course of action.

5. L.A. Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

If nothing happens at three and four, trade-wise, I do wonder what sort of offers the Chargers would get. They, like Arizona, have their QB but need plenty of help elsewhere. With Nabers being 1a, again, I don’t know that getting a “fair trade” to move back does it for me.

6. N.Y. Giants - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Absolute blackout of info from the Giants, becoming standard. We’ve seen the blessing from Mara and what the rest of the roster looks like

7. Tennessee - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Sure there are rumblings of Alt not being the top OT on some boards, but more than likely we just need to discern if the’s the top OT on the Titan’s board. I’m not wavering here just to get cute.

8. Atlanta - Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

The same goes for this one. Haven’t gotten much signal from the Falcons, but the boring, obvious pick that fills a huge need is edge and I haven’t seen a good enough case made for Verse or Latu to jump him.

9. Chicago - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Still a spot where I wonder about taking an offensive lineman, especially if there is someone they like a lot considering there is likely only one OT off the board, but the allure of a top-end WR to bolster an already-stellar starting point for their new QB works too.

10. N.Y. Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

This is one rumor I AM buying a bit. It makes sense considering the fact they are in a “win now” mode. An OT might not start day one and most other positions are in pretty fair shape. With the top three WRs off the board, they do the next best thing to get the most out of their aging QB.

11. Minnesota - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

This section of the draft is what I thought about a lot this weekend as I pondered a scenario where trades up to the top were just not getting done.

Minnesota’s next pressing need besides QB is likely the interior offensive line, and it’s a bit early for that. I would expect them to look at maybe trading back if they get sniped for all four top QBs, but I also don’t hate the idea of stacking on the improved defense and finding some QB options later.

12. Denver - Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

Another team that didn’t get their QB and may be starting Zach Wilson to begin the year. I do wonder if the trade for Wilson signaled a realization that they were unlikely to have enough capital to move up. Pass rush is a need and they can snag one here as consolation.

13. Las Vegas - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

I struggled in deciding which CB to put here and which at 11, but went with the small school guy at the top based on Combine performance. If the Raiders surprise me and take the 5th quarterback here, so be it.

14. New Orleans - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Bit of an obvious one in a world where there is somehow only one offensive lineman off the board to date. Massive need and this would be a coup at 14.

15. Indianapolis - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

I will continue mocking players to Indy that I think would be fun in the offense. This would indeed by fun.

16. Seattle - Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

This seems to be very, very common in mocks, but the fit is really there and it gives them some flexibility up front.

17-32

Here’s the full mock from this morning, including ANOTHER defender for the Vikes, the Lions going WR, and the Steelers, Packers, and Cowboys staying in their lane. I’ll have more details on all 32 in an article later on, but wanted to get this out.

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Parting Shots

• I hate the new Broncos uniforms

• I don’t mind trading for Zach Wilson, he could be a decent bridge QB

• Tomorrow: I’ll lay out 10 bets I’m making THIS WEEK for the draft

• I hope they’re as mean as to Tom Brady as they are when it’s a fellow comedian. I may actually mark this on the calendar and watch it live.