Back for more. It's likely not the last of it either, I'm still digging in on a few teams and what they may do, but I've seen more small bets I made on a few markets of interest. ICYMI, I made cases for ten yesterday:

A Few More Bets

I’ll have a summary of everything tomorrow along with anything new I find interesting or of value when Mock draft 6.0 (the final one) is out in the afternoon.

Anyway, three markets, seven darts:

First Linebacker Taken

Hopefully, there will be no ambiguity about some of these LB/EDGE guys, and we will not have a kerfuffle in grading.

I would expect some very different lists in the various war rooms in this market. Some are based on what they would ask a young LB coming in to do, and some are probably just based on scheme fit or how they plan to develop them.

I would consider any of the top three to be the selection of “chalk,” but Payton Wilson has medical red flags. Apparently, Edgerrin Cooper has possible character issues, and despite the current market prices, I’m seeing Colson closer to what would be considered the second tier of Linebackers by most evaluators.

I think this one is a bit wide open, and I could see a team just grabbing a guy they like, a guy that fits somewhere in the middle of day two.

Some small bets on some longer prices:

Trevin Wallace +1800 (DK)
Cedric Gray +5000 (FD)
Jeremiah Trotter Jr. +5000 (FD)

First Safety Taken

Just another one where I think two things

1. The gap between the top five players is very small relative to the betting odds

2. The first safety taken is day two, adding to the variance compared to “consensus.”

Two guys that I think should be a little higher than their current odds. Hicks has to be high on someone’s board just based on his size, and Bullock might be a winner on a loophole. I think when he’s drafted, there will be a big “S” in the position spot, but that team may be taking him with the intention of using him as corner depth (so many teams need this).

Jaden Hicks +380 (FD)
Calen Bullock +2000 (DK)

Position of 1st Drafted Player - Baltimore

This is just another one where I understand why the favorite is the favorite, but I wonder how messy the end of the 1st round can get.

Baltimore is a team that has been known sometimes to prioritize value over needs and has repeatedly gone “best player available” and seen it work out. Their GM, Eric DeCosta, says, “You really want to get value. For us, it’s just, you hope and pray that one of those top-20 guys might be there for us at 30, so we have some additional value associated with that.”

Furthermore, they’ve traded back in the first round four out of the past six years. If they get some good offers for teams that value the OTs left more than themselves, I can see it for sure. This leaves them in a spot to take a player they value with their first pick and possibly address the offensive line at pick 62 (or perhaps others that they acquired).

So, just a couple shots on prices I think are a bit off considering the history of the team in late April and how they’ll need to approach roster building over the next few years with some vet contracts getting bigger.

Wide Receiver +700 (DK)
Safety +10000 (DK)

Mock 4.0

This will NOT be my final mock. I reserve the right to change it until tomorrow afternoon should some late info come out. I suppose I should have some sort of cutoff. We’ll call it 4 PM ET. I’ll publish what I’m on at that point and tweet it out.

A couple of notes: PFF’s mock thing was being a pain, so I used a different one. I didn’t mind it. I think the trade thing is actually a bit more accurate.

I pulled the trigger on three trades:

1. Vikes move to 5 in exchange for 11 and 23

2. Bears pick swap to get Rome after Falcons court other offers; Falcons get to move up a little in the middle rounds and still get a defender.

3. It wouldn’t let me do it since I only selected one round, but I want to note that pick 30 IS THE COMMANDERS moving back up to take a tackle.

I don’t love Penix getting drafted this high but it seems like a thing that’s gaining momentum. This sort of forces the hands of Indy (good CB still on the board), Seattle (top end pass rusher still on the board) and probably Cincy and the Rams with a top tackle and another good edge rusher falling slightly.

In the end, it’s a bit of a happy ending for the Chargers if they get a solid tackle and a good WR. We’ll see.  

I tried to get a little weird at the end, because that’s what happens every year. I feel like I might even have to crank it up a notch.

Deep Dive Tonight

Drew and I will be hitting it from all angles tonight at 8 pm ET on the YouTube channel. Join us live if you want to ask some draft questions.

Final note: just in case you live in Nevada and want to bet at the legal shops, you have a few hours to do so.