Sunday Recap:

Green Bay 48 - Dallas 32: Jordan Love was very, very good and likely wins this game even without the Dallas miscues. Dak throwing the two interceptions (one pick-six and one that led to a TD three plays later) put this game into a weird spot early though. It does suck that the Dallas/McCarthy schadenfreude is taking away from the offensive game plan that LaFleur put together and Jordan Love executed. Also, I’m not seeing nearly enough blame put on Dan Quinn. The defense looked unprepared and slow. Glad I got the Dallas team total in garbage time, hate that I went cute and dabbled in the 1st half as well.

Love the golf analogy. Dak & J.T Poston.

Los Angeles 23 - Detroit 24: I guess I would have liked a friendlier whistle for my Rams in a couple of spots late, but it's sometimes a tough thing to ask for on the road. Stafford and Goff were both great and neither secondary looked like they were equipped to handle the WRs in this one. The TDs to Puka and Tutu were both great passes and coaching held the Rams back more than anything on the field of play. Hopefully, Stafford isn’t in too much pain after some nasty knocks. Good job of me overthinking it and going moneyline instead of grabbing the LAR +3! 👏 

Congrats to the Lions are in order. Dolphins are now your longest-loser:

Divisional Round Schedule

Still need to sort out who’s going to Detroit in the late game, and a Pittsburgh upset changes up where Houston is heading. I’m just hoping the snow storms are done.

Saturday

4:30 pm ET: Houston at Baltimore or Kansas City (ESPN/ABC)

8:00 pm ET: Green Bay at San Francisco (FOX)

Sunday

3:00 pm ET: Philly/Tampa at Detroit (NBC/Peacock)

6:30 pm ET: Kansas City at Buffalo OR Pittsburgh at Baltimore (CBS/Paramount)

Watch: CBS/Paramount+

Market: This one has a huge asterisk that is a bit unprecedented I suppose. Moving the game from yesterday to today caused a fair-sized adjustment in the total based on the (relatively) better weather forecast. The side remains around the +10 range that it was originally set at, it has bounced down to 9.5 a couple of times and taken Bills’ money to move it back.

The total on the other hand CRATERED on the weather news, getting as low as 33 off the opener of 39.5 Sunday night. The move to Monday afternoon (and slightly better weather) saw it reopen at 37 and has since been bet up a bit. Currently at 38.5 across the board.

Updated Weather

Some flurries are possible, but unlikely. There will be some blowing snow. It’ll be cold, but not as bad as Kansas City, the wind chills will be in the single digits above zero. Winds 15+ with gusting up to 25 mph.

Injury report

Steelers

T.J. Watt is out with his knee injury. LB Elandon Roberts, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, G Isaac Seumalo, and RB Najee Harris are all listed as questionable but are all expected to play. Everyone save Seumalo has been a full participant in practice.

Bills

WR Gabe Davis and S Taylor Rapp are ruled out. LB Tyrel Dodson and CB Rasul Douglas are listed as questionable. The extra day may help a bit here, Douglas DID NOT practice on Friday and was considered a bit of a game-day decision.

…..

There are plenty of reasons to like the Bills. They’ve been winning games after a rough start, Josh Allen seems to have it together a bit, and some of the offensive game plans are making sense at times. They are the double-digit favorite here, I shouldn’t have to make too much of a case for them. I will say that losing WR depth and the possibility of being down two starting defensive backs is never great, but it’s been something they’ve dealt with most of the year.

I still have yet to sort out how Mason Rudolph is playing at a level we didn’t see in the past, but I know for a fact he’s been putting out the best quarterback play for the Steelers of probably the past two full seasons. Hard to say what’s changed for him, but as I often point to in younger QBs who seem to be playing well ahead of schedule, he has a bit of poise. Handling pressure well, working the pocket, and for the most part, delivering accurate balls. This team isn’t great, but a big uptick in QB play puts them in the mix to be great in small portions.

Maybe a bit tied to the increase in overall competency around him, Najee Harris has been looking great over the past few weeks and with only 255 total carries, should be fresher than some against a Bills defense that can struggle versus the run a bit. Similarly at the WR position: we’ve just had such limited QB play all year that it’s been hard for Pickens and Dionte Johnson to shine as bright as they someday could.

End the end, the Steelers are a seven-seed for a reason. They don’t pass-protect all that well and can rely on the run a bit too much, so a big early deficit might doom them from a game-state standpoint.  Missing TJ Watt is also a massive downgrade for this defense. Markus Golden, Nick Herbig, and Alex Highsmith are going to have to step up big and put pressure on Josh Allen if they want to keep this close.

This was one of the first bets I made this week, and to tell you the truth I liked it better when I thought we were playing in a snowstorm. While the change of date isn’t the end of the world, I would have preferred the nasty weather variance for my big old underdog in this one. The bet remains though.

Steelers +10

Watch: ESPN/ABC

Market: Philly is out to -3, but it’s been a little back and forth as the +3s are getting some action today coming back. The total is coming down, but not a ton. 44 down to 43.

Injury report

Eagles

A.J. Brown was ruled out yesterday! Rookie CB Sydney Brown is also done for the year with the knee injury he sustained. The Eagles lost a versatile defensive back who had been playing more slot corner lately in Brown. Not great considering that Safety Reed Blankenship is also listed as questionable, he did not practice at all this week.

Jalen Hurts was a full participant Friday and Saturday and was reportedly throwing the ball well after giving his injured finger a rest on Thursday.

Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield, LB K.J. Britt, and CB Josh Hayes are listed as questionable, but head coach Todd Bowles has proclaimed that they are all good to go for Monday night. DL Mike Greene was ruled out, he’s still in his 21-day window to return from the IR.

…..

This is a rematch, but I think it’s fair to say that both of these teams are quite different from their week three iterations. The Eagles haven’t just dropped games, they’ve looked very bad a few times in doing so. The Bucs have had their stinkers too (New Orleans), but Baker found his footing mid-season and has opened up this offense quite a bit.

We’ve reached the point where it’s been a solid month of asking “What’s wrong with the Eagles?”

With the passing game sputtering and the secondary seemingly getting more exposed by the week, it’s hard to get excited about this team’s prospects even after Dallas did them a favor yesterday, directing their path to Detroit rather than San Francisco.

If they can get a ton of production out of Swift, avoid the killer turnovers from Hurts, and see the pass rush have a nice day, they should still be able to win this game though.

For my money, I think this price is probably fair, but wonder if we’ve seen the lowest lows yet for Philly. We’ve seen Darius Slayton, Greg Dortch, and Wan'Dale Robinson have nice games against this secondary over the past few weeks. It stands to reason that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have an above-average chance to open this game up a bit if Baker is feeling up to it.

I want no part of betting on this one pre-flop with how bad Baker looked against Carolina after taking a few hits and the fact that Hurts had limited throwing this week with his finger injury. The fact that the final game of the weekend could be a stinker sucks, but I’m prepping myself for that eventuality.

If someone held me at gunpoint and made me place a wager here, it’d likely be an under 43, for what it’s worth.

I did win a Prize Picks entry yesterday (my version of goofing around with Same-Game Parlays since I’m not in a legal betting state and have to rely on the offshore world) and since winning means extra funds in the account, I’ll likely put one together for the night game again, I’ll tweet about I’m sure.

Tomorrow:

• Catching up with any injuries on the teams that won

• Looking at the opening betting lines for the divisional round

• First thoughts on the matchups