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Injuries 🤕

• Jordan Love and Russell Wilson are almost certainly out.

• Saints CB Marshon Lattimore is looking like he’ll miss today’s game with his hamstring injury.

• Jordan Addison will miss the Vikings home opener today.

• Bears WRs Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen will both be game-time decisions tonight. Odunze looks more likely than Allen currently. They did put OL Ryan Bates on the IR, and Nate Davis will step in as guard full-time. Davis rotated with Bates, playing roughly 30% of the snaps last week.

• Bengals WR Tee Higgins is very doubtful to play again.

• It looks like Zach Charbonnet will be the lead back in Seattle, with Kenneth Walker likely out. RT George Fant will likely miss the game as well.

• Commanders Rookie Johnny Newton may make his NFL debut at DT today vs the Giants

• Colts WR Josh Downs will be a game time decision.

• Both Darius Slayton and Malik Nabers are expected to play for the Giants.

• Lions wideout Jameson Williams will play today vs the Bucs

• While still a disaster, the Bucs DB room got some good news with CB Zyon McCollum being cleared to play after being in the protocol.

• And of course, in case you were on a vacation this week with no wifi or newspaper access: Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, and Hollywood Brown were put on the IR.

Weather ⛈

Situational Stuff ✈

• Kansas City and Baltimore are coming into the week with extra rest off TNF

• Green Bay and Philadelphia are as well but had the added wrinkle of having to travel to Brazil and back

• San Francisco, Las Vegas, Seattle, and the LA Chargers are all West Coast teams playing in the early window after traveling east to the Central or Eastern time zones.

• Additionally, this is the second straight road game for the Raiders.

• Pittsburgh and the NY Jets will also be playing their second straight week on the road. The Steelers will be doing it at altitude in Denver.

• The Saints had their routine disrupted this week with Hurricane Francine cutting Wednesday practice short while coaches stayed overnight at the facility working via generator power.

• A Bonus one for next week:

Sunday Bets

More than usual, but I’ve always tried to just play my edges. I might only have 2-3 games one week (we call that Wildcard Weekend).

New York Giants/Washington over 43.5

I missed the best of the numbers early in the week, but I still love the matchup of these offenses that scored a combined 26 points last week. Both offenses were forced to face tough defensive matchups, and in Washington’s case, in their rookie’s debut. I think we’ll see some life out of the Giants vs a team with a horrible secondary and little to offer as far as edge rush. Similarly, I stated that I saw signs of life from Daniels as the game went on.

LA Rams/Cardinals over 47.5

The Rams’ offensive line injuries stink, but this may be the perfect landing spot for them to try and get it together with some new guys stepping up. The Cardinals were dead last in pressure rate and pass rush win rate in week one. A savvy QB/Coach combo that still has Cooper Kupp vs this defense may be just fine (again, maybe just for this week as tougher tests lie ahead). On the other hand, I was a little worried about the pass rush, which looked impressive for the Rams, but with a much more mobile quarterback this week, it may not come into play like it did against Goff.

Kansas City -6

I mean, it’s all built into the line already, but with the extra rest, home field, and the matchup advantages on both sides of the ball, I make this line closer to -8 in my numbers. I know KC hasn’t been great covering the number for the past couple of years, but I’m still happy to take this at under a TD, considering what I saw from the KC pass rush & the Cincy offense in week one. If Andy Reid continues to implement even more of rookie Xavier Worthy and second-year rising star Rashee Rice, this could be a blow out.

Houston -6

Same story as above: I make this price better than -7 and am happy that some groups played back on the +6.5 earlier in the week. I think the Bears’ defense is a bit overrated after playing the Titans who were implementing a new offense with what may turn out to be a horrible QB. This is NOT a new offense, nor a horrible QB. Both “trench” units for Houston have a better matchup than last week, even if the Bears metrics looked decent against Tennessee in the pass rush. First road game for the rookie QB against a defensive head coach with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson at his disposal.

Cleveland +3

It's a gross one, but this is still an elite defensive unit for the Browns, and outside of a couple of drives last week, they were able to lock down a much better offense than this. Maybe Watson is broken and will never play well again, but if he’s going to show up, I’ll try to be ahead of it, as this is a much easier test than the impressive Dallas defense, even on the road in Jacksonville.

LA Chargers/Carolina under 39

Maybe Carolina just gets throttled again, and this looks dumb, but considering the game plan last week for the Chargers, I’d expect them to continue to be a run-first, ball-control team that could really milk some clock after building a lead. I have the Saints as an overall defense rated higher than the Chargers, but watching the pass rush at times last week, I think Bryce Young may be in for another long day.

Josh Jacobs over 64.5 rushing yards

I wanted some Green Bay, but missed the move. I still like this under a bit, but considering the probable game plan, plus what we saw Mixon do last week when he was used in volume, I like an obvious donkey prop here. Even in a game state where they trail, I can’t see LaFleur just dropping Malik Willis back over and over.

6 Point Teaser: Ravens -2.5/Broncos +8.5

Both teams at home in advantageous situational spots with some advantages on defense. We just need Bo Nix to keep it together against a good pass rush, and I think the Broncos will keep this close or even win, considering what we saw out of Justin Fields last week. The Ravens hosting an offense that didn’t look like they had an identity in the coaching mismatch of the year is a nice look too, in my opinion.

If you wanted additional thoughts on any of the other games, we covered all 16 in the two-hour-plus podcast from Wednesday. Time stamps in the video allow you to skip to whichever game you’d like.

One Last Thing, do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.