Winning a bet is nice, but winning a handicap is nicer. Seeing Baker struggle after basing my wager on him finally facing a decent defense was heartwarming for sure. I was surprised that Swift had the day he did against a better run defense, but the scheme and blocking did a great job of opening up lanes for him on his way to another 100-yard day.

AJ Brown got the squeaky wheel treatment after pitching a bit of a fit on the sideline last week and was targeted early and often. The defense looked good when it needed to and limited Tampa to just 174 offensive yards at home. They will return home this week to take on the Commanders as an 8-point favorite.

Tampa is in a tough spot needing a bounceback in a divisional road game next week versus the Saints. They will almost certainly face Jameis Winston instead of Derek Carr, but the Saints will also be getting Alvin Kamara back to bolster the offense. I haven’t made any updates to my power ratings yet, but with the change at QB, I make this price NO -2.8, not far off the market.

I really didn’t think we’d see Burrow, but with the season sort of on the line, I guess he just must have got that leg shot up with horse morphine and gutted it out. You could tell he didn’t have as much zip on his passes and couldn’t get as much torque from his lower body as usual, but for some reason the Rams decided to defend him like the deep threat was always imminent, giving up the soft underneath stuff all night long. Chase crushed them in the short to intermediate and while it wasn’t always pretty, he and Burrow willed the offense to a win in that second half.

The Rams weren’t terrible, but going 1-11 on third down and losing the turnover battle aren’t gonna win you very many road games in the NFL. They DID cover the early prices in the week on a late TD that mattered to plenty of folks, which was nice.

They’ll head to Indy to take on the Colts (still waiting for QB news there), while Cincy will try to get to .500 on the road against a Tennessee team coming off a putrid performance.

We went over all the games from Sunday with some quick thoughts and peeked at the early lines (starts around 13:30) if you need a catchup.

Already plenty of action and some big adjustments for week four. I’ll focus in on a few markets that have moved the most from last week or the openers.

Minnesota Side & Total: -2.5 to -3.5 & 44.5 to 46

Pretty easy math problem here when a side gets bet up and the total goes with it. The only team able to stop Minnesota’s offense has been Minnesota themselves, via untimely turnovers. With the multiple added injuries to an already beat-up defense in this one, the market is expecting Minnesota to move at will on this Panthers defense Sunday.

Cleveland -1.5 to -2.5

Not a big move, but wanted to highlight that the look-ahead line last week had Baltimore favored by a couple of points. Decent adjustment by the market as a whole on both teams based on the play of Cleveland and the injuries to the Ravens.

For Baltimore RB Gus Edwards (concussion protocol), LB David Ojabo (ankle), WRs Rashod Bateman (hamstring) & Tylan Wallace (hamstring), and S Geno Stone (ribs) are all added to the mounting injury list with Wallace placed on IR yesterday.

Miami/Buffalo over 54

Another one that is worth pointing to last week’s number. This was sitting at 50 before Sunday’s action, I’m just curious to see if folks are brave enough to play an under on this one or it it ticks to 55.

Cincinnati/Tennessee under 41

Already down a point and I wonder if it doesn’t get further based on the limited nature of Burrow and the stagnant offense we saw from the Titans. I want to disagree with this move a little but the Titans’ offensive line woes would keep me from trying to be the buyback here even if this got to 40.

Chicago/Denver over 46

Opens 44.5 and up right away. I’m not sure how I feel about betting on the Bears to score points, but if there were ever a week, at home versus a defense that’s in freefall right now might be it. On the other side of the ball, the Bears have lost a good chunk of the starting defensive backfield and this may be a nice get-right spot for Russell Wilson as well. If you made me chase this steam, it would likely be a Denver team total over.

NY Giants -1.5

This opened Seattle -2 and quickly flipped favorites. Giants get a long prep time going from the TNF game all the way to the follow MNF and may have the right mix of play calling and personnel to pressure Geno a bit. The Seahawks feasted on a beat-up Panthers defense at home, should be a tougher test here.

One to watch: Detroit -1

Similar to last week with New Orleans, the Green Bay line may bounce around back and forth across zero based on the injury news for Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Jaire Alexander, and the offensive lineman.