Week Three Power Ratings Updates

Maybe the biggest pain in the ass week of the year to make proper ratings, as the small sample size problem is exacerbated by injuries at the quarterback spot. If there’s anything I’ve learned over the years, it’s to try and not hold on too tightly to priors if your eyes are telling you something completely different.

Some things can be explained (the Atlanta pass rush isn’t likely this good, they just went up against two teams missing star left tackles so far), while others may take some time (everything about the Colts). But, as a reminder, if something seems unsustainable and off, sometimes it just is:

It’s Wednesday morning, which means we haven’t received injury reports yet, so things can and will change. However, for now, this is where I stand (with some significant disagreements with the market on a few teams).

*For the record, this is a Mariota number for Washington.

I made some slight changes since our Tuesday livestream, but for the most part left well enough be and tried to avoid too many knee-jerk reactions. As we discussed, the biggest moves of the week will all be for teams with quarterback issues

• Cincinnati: Bad news got worse when we found out Burrow needed surgery, and while there is a clear and obvious downgrade to Browning for the offensive numbers, we also have the weirdness of the play styles affecting the offensive line. The other fly in the ointment: they play the Vikings, another team that is forced to go to the backup.

  

• Minnesota: Maybe not a big downgrade from a so-far disappointing rookie* QB to Carson Wentz, but remember, he did not spend all of camp with the team, being signed on August 24th. The bigger part of the Minny pricing right now is the multiple injuries on the offensive line and defense.

• Washington: This one is in a holding pattern for now. We haven’t gotten a Wednesday injury report yet, and it feels like it could go either way. After we get some practice info and hopefully some quotes from Dan Quinn, we’ll know just how likely this downgrade needs to be, as we may end up with Mariota under center Sunday.

  The reports today make it sound like we’ll have to wait until Friday to find out.

• The God Damn Jets: After a pretty fun week one game, we now get more Tyrod with the announcement that Justin Fields will NOT be cleared to play in Sunday’s game vs the Bucs.

Quick Thoughts

1. The Bucs have had a little luck getting to 2-0, but remember, they will eventually get Wirfs and Godwin back. Sometimes it just takes some well-timed luck to put you in a great position. I’d love to fade this team in the short term, but I have a bit of trouble going to war with Tyrod Taylor on the road.

2. I will not bet on the Denver/Chargers game, but I will certainly have it on the main screen in the late window. My numbers have had to come down a bit on the Denver defense, but with KC 0-2, this is a massive early-season matchup for the teams hoping to usurp the crown.

3. Vegas is in the widowmaker spot this week, having to play a team off extra rest while themselves coming off short rest from MNF. Additionally, they have to travel to the East Coast and play in the early slot. (possibly against Marcus Mariota, though).

4. We’ll go over all the games this afternoon and talk about what we’ve bet so far at 3 pm ET:

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