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Injuries

Two massive QB what-ifs this week. Both Jordan Love and Justin Herbert headed into the weekend with Questionable tags.

Jordan Love is expected to miss his second straight start. Malik Willis will try to put on an encore performance, this time against a much better defense.

The Chargers are being cagey about Justin Herbert, and a high ankle sprain is nothing to sneeze at. I’m not sure what the situation is since he missed some practice, we may see some Taylor Heinicke here. The latest yesterday was that there is “optimism” and that he’ll test it out before the game.

• Colt WR Michael Pittman is expected to play vs Chicago

• Brown LT Jedrick Wills is expected to play after missing the first two games due to a knee injury.

• DT Vita Vea will be out for the Bucs after injuring his knee last week. S Antoine Winfield Jr and DL Calijah Kancey will also be out again this week.

• George Kittle joins Deebo Samuel and CMC as another skill position player to miss today's divisional game for the 49ers.

• Taysom Hill is doubtful for the Saints

• The Steelers will be without their RT. Rookie Troy Fautanu hurt his knee and will hit the IR.

• The Raiders are losing pass rusher Malcolm Koonce for the season. Related: despite having an injury designation, Maxx Crosby is expected to play.

• Joe Mixon was ruled out the other day; he didn’t even travel to Minnesota.

• Raheem Mostert and Kenneth Walker are also expected to be out for the Dolphins and Seahawks.

• As expected, the Eagles’ AJ Brown, Bears’ Keenan Allen, and Vikings’ Jordan Addison will all miss another week.

Monday

• Tee Higgins will play vs Washington.

• The Jags will be without Evan Engram

Weather

Not much is going on. It’s been a pretty quiet season so far on the weather-impacted games (don’t worry, we’ll get there).

The best chance for rain is in Buffalo tomorrow night, with some chances in the other MNF game in Cincy as well. Today’s only threat of precipitation appears to be in Tennessee, but it’s still more of a 50/50 proposition.

Situational

• The 49ers, Giants, Bears, and Chargers are on the 2nd week of back-to-back road games, although none are significant distances to travel since the Chargers spent the week in North Carolina.

• Buffalo and Miami are coming off extra rest from TNF, while Atlanta and Philly have a short week after playing on MNF.

• Detroit makes its second long trip out West in three weeks to Arizona after playing the Rams in week one.

• No West Coast teams playing east, the closest we’ll come is Denver in Tampa Bay early.

• Home openers for the Steelers, Rams, & Raiders.

Sunday Bets

It was a very ugly card this week; every click was excruciating.

Bears/Colts under 43.5

The defensive injuries for the Colts aren’t helping me out here, but even with a Gus Bradley coached defense, I can’t put a ton of stock in the Chicago offense yet. I’d expect more of what we’ve seen from the Bears and what’s worked against the Colts: short possession passing and a ton of running the ball. On the other side, I have been impressed with the Bears’ defense and some of the adjustments they’ve been able to make.

Chargers Moneyline +115

This will age like milk in the sun if Justin Herbert is ruled out in a few hours, but for now, I’m not only banking on him as a player; I realize the game plan they run may not be markedly worse in a backup’s hands. The Steelers’ defense is elite, but this allows them to be a bit more predictable, and I wonder if we have a coaching advantage for the Chargers, who have not had to show much yet after playing the Raiders and Panthers.

Rams +6.5

I missed the very best of the numbers, but despite the injuries, I can’t seem to find a way to get this divisional game out to anywhere near 6.5 points for the road team. The Rams were put in a bad spot right off the bat last week, but we saw them get pressure in week one vs a more traditional pocket passer in Jared Goff. With multiple stars out for the 49ers as well, I expect a better performance from the LA defense here.

Browns -6.5

This is a play based on my pricing and the matchups because, from an eye-test point of view, I’m not excited at all to go to war with Deshaun Watson. The Giants offense moved the ball last week, but there’s a sizable gap between the Commanders’ defense and the Browns. I’m expecting something closer to what we got out of Daniel Jones in week one vs Minnesota. On the other side of the ball, the Browns finally have their offensive tackles healthy and should be able to neutralize the “strength” of the Giants’ defense, the pass rush.

6-Point Teaser: Vikings +7.5/Chargers +8.5

More eggs into the Harbaugh basket, but will a low total (35) and two good defenses, 8.5 points go a long ways. Minnesota is me trusting in this team to play well enough on both sides of the ball to keep this competitive at home. We may get to see DC Brian Flores get creative again if the Texans are unable to get the ground game going with Akers and co.

We went over every game on Wednesday afternoon a little quicker this week, as Drew was joining late at night from Greece. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen while they prep the Sunday feast.

One Last Thing, do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.