Market

This one’s been a bit messy, eh?

Sitting around a pk’em last week, this opens up and catches nothing but Saints money on Monday, presumably off the news that Trevor Lawrence’s knee was not 100%. Saints -3 by the end of the day.

Tuesday finds Trevor in practice, with a big brace on, but drives a little cash back toward the Jags. Back down around -1 for the most part. Not much news on Wednesday outside of the Jags adding a QB to the roster just in case; the market stays steady.

Gameday morning finds a little bit of Saints action with the decision for the starting QB being announced as a game-time decision. -2.5s started to peek back into the market

Finally, Doug tells Ed that he thinks Trevor will start and the numbers get pushed back down to Saints -2 in most places. Guess we’ll see. If I had to read tea leaves, I still think this is 50/50 at best.

The total has taken a similar path, bouncing on the news and dropping below 40 several times. It has seen a little action on the over today. Now sitting at 40.5 at most places.

Matchup

Maybe a little lost in the shuffle here due to all the speculation about Lawrence: the Saints suffering a bit of a cluster injury on their offensive line. Peat has played tackle a little here and there, but has not spent significant time there since 2017 (and in college, I think), so this is obviously not ideal. It is, although, better than the alternative of Trevor Penning, who’s been pretty rough at LT.

It’s hard to get too deep into it with the uncertainty surrounding the QB, but I will say that we’ve seen very impressive defensive performances by both teams so far this year. Both are top ten in DVOA six games in with New Orleans popping some impressive numbers on 3rd down percentage and opponent QB rating.

If the Saints can put the clamps on whatever Jacksonville rolls out at QB, they’ll just need to be a bit more efficient with the ball to snag a home win here.

As we discussed last night on the podcast, they are a bottom-five team in red zone efficiency, converting only 36% of trips to touchdowns (avg is 52.4, feels like I’ve seen this number somewhere before). Big plays to move down the field are nice, but you need to get more than a FGA if you want to have a shot to win the South.

Betting

I still think this total is probably a bit high considering both defenses and that we may get Carr behind a ramshackle O-Line vs CJ Beathard. Small bet from me here, hard to get excited for points in this matchup on a Sunday, much less with a short week to prep gameplans.

I’ve reworked my totals model a bit and it definitely spits out an under if I plug in C.J. Beathard, but even a hobbled Trevor works for this. Might take more at halftime.

Jaguars/Saints Under 40.5

The darts for today.

Not sure what we’ll be seeing from these teams, but a spot where both defenses should have very nice matchups. A strip sack or pick will have me standing up from the chair.

Christian Kirk +1200 (DK)

Jamaal Williams +1500 (CZR)

Saints Defense/Special Teams +3000 (MGM)

Jags Defense/Special Teams +3500 (MGM)

NO TOUCHDOWN +8500 (FD)

Week 7 Betting Picks

Went over each game last night and had a few more bets go into the account than I expected, we even remembered the secret team total podcast play at the end.

Good luck with your wagers tonight, and here’s to no one getting within sniffing distance of pay dirt!