Someone, somewhere, will set themselves apart from the crowd for more than one week, but once again, the top of my list is lukewarm at best, and parity rules supreme. Nice league, Roger.

Notes and Musings

Until their defense (which, to be fair, is banged up) lets up more points than Steichen can muster with Danny Dimes, the Colts will continue to rise up.

I have NOT updated the 49ers’ number to reflect the return of some players. If Purdy, Pearsall, and Kittle all play, this team bumps up to around a +2.0/2.25 or so.

It does feel like we’re about two weeks, maybe less, away from the Chiefs offense feeling inevitable again. Rice is back this week, and it’s looked much smoother of late, even without him.

I know that the Ravens are getting Lamar and some defensive players back. This rating doesn’t reflect that obviously, but they’re on bye, so I have time to figure out where I need to be (likely snugly between Philly and Tampa if I had to guess).

Likely overdid it with my bump up for Pittsburgh, but I was very quick to downgrade the defense early in the season and needed to correct that now that it’s playing where it should be.

I went to bat for Joe Brady this week a bit, and he made me look stupid Monday. Elite teams are allowed to have bad defenses if their star QB and offensive scheme mask it by winning games with lots of points. I don’t see the Bills’ defense suddenly turning it around, so he and Josh better figure it out.

Drake Maye is probably legit. The Patriots against the pass are not though. Likely an over team when they face a competent QB (so not last week, or this week, or next week).

Finally, Tennessee got an obligatory bump up for firing the worst HC in the league. It could have been bigger, but I’m not crazy about Mike McCoy

Are the Vikings going with Wentz or McCarthy? Does it matter???

Washington's number DOES reflect some reinforcements returning from injury. If Terry can’t play yet, then we’ll just push them right back down again.

My Biggest disagreements with the Market: My raw numbers are showing value on the Raiders, Colts, Seahawks, Giants, Cowboys, and Falcons (for now).

If I missed something that you are wondering about in the rating, by all means, yell at me on Twitter, in the Discord, or join us live this afternoon at 3 PM ET for the full week seven breakdown on YouTube and Twitter.

Early TNF Prop

Once again, I’m not a huge prop bettor, but have been using the SharpStack tool to place some bets (even did hockey props yesterday since there was nothing better going on). I don’t want to go full salesman mode, but so far, so good, slowly building up the bankroll with it.

Noah Fant u3.5 Receptions +101 (NoVig)

A couple more hockey bets for this evening as well, if you’re interested. New Users can try it out 10000% Free for 7 days. Code DEEPDIVE for 25% off any plan at 4for4.com