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Bit of a dramatic way to end week one.

Not the game.

The only things in doubt in the 4th quarter were the 2nd half side and total. But, not only was Christian McCaffrey a surprise late scratch, his replacement, Jordan Morgan may have inadvertently said a bit too much about CMC’s injury status coming into the weekend. Some folks are mad online about this, but that’s what the internet’s for. We’ll see if anything comes of it.

MNF: Hopeful Optimism

They did not win, and the offensive game plan looked very suspect at times, but we did get glimpses of some prime Aaron Rodgers. He found his #1 receiver a few times in some tight spots. His arm looked good, and the obvious classic was a free-play touchdown strike on a defensive penalty.

My top-rated defense didn’t look all that great giving up 30+, but some leeway has to be given in a road game against what is undoubtedly a top-5 offense and a great play caller. I’m sure fans would have liked to see the Jets win, but I think there were plenty of things to like about them going forward.

As for week two, The quarterbacks (as a whole) underwhelmed us. Every kicker looked like prime Justin Tucker, none of the highly touted rookies separated themselves (maybe Joe Alt), and we have a mess of results to try and sort out.

Hot Take

It’s “overreaction week,” but UNDER reacting is just as bad as overreacting in some cases. There’s just no way you made pre-season power numbers that are perfect for the first two weeks. Some things are going to have to change.

Yeah, it’s been one week and takeaways are hard. Reading between the lines on stats is tough in a small sample, but if you feel comfortable doing some sort of proprietary “adjusted efficiency” metric for how a team played based on the opponent, more power to you, I’ll be free handing it this week.

What’s worth reacting to and what’s worth pumping the brakes on is extremely difficult to parse out. I’ll try to cover what I think did matter a little more in my updated power ratings since it’s about the only reason for a sizeable move in my ratings outside of important injuries (sorry, Green Bay). 

So, that leaves me with what needs to be tossed out. Maybe a good example to start with is in the NFC South.

I started the season with the Saints as my 24th-rated offense. A team with a very suspect offensive line, problems with depth everywhere, and an inconsistent QB. Dropping a big number on Carolina at home likely doesn’t have me doing much to upgrade them, especially considering their already weak OL had an injury and their starting TE is concussed. They are heading into a much tougher test for week two and I don’t want to go too far with any adjustments here, I’ll rely a little more on my priors for now. The matchup against the Cowboys is annoying in and of itself, as we may be basing the week 3 Saints number on them playing a bottom-5 and top-5 defense and having to sort out where the mean performance falls.

I’m not saying this is gospel, but I think it’s a good thought exercise to evaluate what you liked or disliked about the film, how the stats align with what happened on the field and ask some questions about how much of that was opponent based and how much felt repeatable. Another one I’ll avoid upgrading (even if Addison is 100%) is the Vikings offense in the first game against a bad Giants defense. With no film on Darnold in this scheme yet and a plus matchup, I’m pumping the brakes here, sticking with where I had them for now.

On the other hand though, in my opinion, even though it was against a lowly-rated offense, the Vikings D merits a bump up. Scheme and game planning are repeatable, and I still consider Brian Daboll a good offensive game planner. Brian Flores ate his lunch with his newly assembled D.

So, short of going through each and every adjustment I’ll leave you with what I already said: if you want to update whatever sort of ratings each week, you’ll have to make some judgement calls on what mattered, what was horseshit, and what’s repeatable rather that beatable.

Full week two Power Ratings in the morning along with some early bets.

A few releases from groups already early in the week have some stuff moving, and unfortunately, some of them I strongly agree on and now have to decide how much worse of a number I’m willing to take on the ones I missed

Tampa @ Detroit: Total from 49 to 51

The side also saw action moving onto the key number of -7 off the opener of -6. The lookahead was -6.5 last week and the reopen was apparently not directionally correct.

Seattle @ New England: Total from 40 to 38

Impressive showings by both defenses and uneven performances by the quarterbacks last week.

NYG @ Washington: Total from 41 to 44

Market not worried about how the offenses looked against what were likely MUCH better defenses than what they’ll face in this divisional clash to stay out of the basement.

LAC @ Carolina: Chargers and the Under

Opened -4, now up to -6.5 for the visiting Bolts. Total has dropped a full point as well, down to 39. ]

LA Rams @ Arizona: Flipped Favorite

Rams opened as a -1 favorite here, but with all of the injury news and the promising performance of the Cards offense, this is now out to Arizona -1.5.

Pittsburgh @ Denver: Pre-Season Looking Total

Down to 36.5 across the board after opening 38.5 this week. The Steelers defense looked electric and the offense didn’t score a TD. They now face a rookie QB at altitude.

New Orleans @ Dallas: Total from 44 to 46

New Orleans with a slew of injuries after beating up a bad team and Dallas looking pretty sharp on both sides of the ball. Market putting stock in the offenses here.

Indy @ Green Bay: Love Injury

This one doesn’t really count as it’s obvious, but it should be mentioned that this was Green Bay -4.5 last week before the games were played and now sits around Indy -3.5, an eight-point move. There was action on Green Bay Monday, but it’s remained in the ball park of -3/-3.5.

Others:

• Houston taking some money, now out to -7 over the Bears

• Philly is up to -6.5, hosting ATL after opening at -5.5.

• Slight pushback on the adjusted opener for KC hosting the Bengals. Lookahead for the Chiefs was -3.5, opened -6.5 at some shops Sunday night and some Bengals money pushed back against this big adjustment.

• Bills/Phins total down a point off the opener (49 from 50). Two-way action on the side bouncing between -2/-2.5

Injuries to Watch (long list)

Lastly what I hope is a comprehensive list of everyone dinged up, knocked out, or working their way back to playing for week two. Now the the mini Josh Allen scare has come and gone, the most meaningful behind Jordan Love is likely what’s happening to Tampa’s seconday.

• Arizona Cardinals

  • RT Jonah Williams was ruled out of the Bills game, his knee injury is still be evaluated

• Atlanta Falcons

  • G Chris Lindstrom left the game with a head injury but was allowed to return

• Baltimore Ravens

  • Kyle Van Noy broke his orbital bone and will miss a few weeks

  • Lamar missed a practice. Hopefully, it’s just rest after a game where he ran a ton.

• Buffalo Bills

  • CB Taron Johnson is OUT with an arm injury, leaving this secondary room even more depleted.

  • RB Ty Johnson left the game with a knee injury and was limited in practice this week

• Carolina Panthers

  • DL Derrick Brown maybe lost for the season

• Chicago Bears

  • WR Rome Odunze is dealing with a knee injury and may miss time

  • DJ Moore banged up his shoulder last week, but played through it, should be ok.

• Cincinnati Bengals

  • After missing week one, Tee Higgins may be out again in week two with a hamstring injury

• Cleveland Browns

  • TE David Njoku is out for a few weeks with an ankle injury

• Dallas Cowboys

  • Jake Ferguson’s knee injury will keep him out for a few weeks

• Denver Broncos

  • Garett Bolles exited the game, but appears to have avoided a serious ankle injury

• Detroit Lions

  • DJ Reader sounds like he could make his team debut in week 2

• Green Bay Packers

  • RB MarShawn Lloyd missed week one with a hammy, worth monitoring in a game that might need to feature a lot of running.

• Houston Texans

  • Keeping an eye on Jeff Okudah this week to see if he can get back and help bolster the pass defense.

• Indianapolis Colts

  • DeForest Buckner left the game with a back injury

• Jacksonville Jaguars

  • CB Tyson Campbell is expected to miss time with a hamstring injury

• Kansas City Chiefs

  • Andy Reid said there’s a decent chance Hollywood Brown returns this week.

• Las Vegas Raiders

  • Tyree Wilson sprained his knee and will miss time

• Los Angeles Chargers

  • Justin Herbert’s foot seemed fine

• Los Angeles Rams

  • T Joe Noteboom injured adds to the OL woes with guard Steve Avila leaving the game as well.

  • Puka Nacua to the IR

• Miami Dolphins

  • Both running backs are dinged up. Achane and Mostert missed practice on Monday (on a short week).

  • LB David Long left the game and did not return last week

• Minnesota Vikings

  • Jordan Addison hurt his ankle, but his status this week is still up in the air.

• New England Patriots

  • Guys to monitor: RB Antonio Gibson (hip), OT Vederian Lowe (abdomen), LB Joshua Uche (foot) and S Jabrill Peppers (hip) and well as OL Sidy Sow

• New Orleans Saints

  • Marshon Lattimore hurt his hamstring, but has a chance to play this week

  • LG Lucas Partick left the game with a toe injury

  • Tight end Forster Moreau was taken out with concussion symptoms late.

• New York Giants

  • WR Gunner Olszewski was ruled out before the game.

  • CB Nick McCloud (knee) exited the game

  • Special Teamer LB Carter Coughlin is likely out for the year with pec injury

• New York Jets

  • CB Michael Carter left with an ankle injury last night

• Philadelphia Eagles

  • CB Isaiah Rodgers seemed confident he’d be back this week

• Pittsburgh Steelers

  • No word yet on if QB Russell Wilson will be ready to go for week 2.

  • The Punter Cameron Johnston is done for the year with a knee injury. The team brought back Corliss Waitman to handle punting duties.

• San Francisco 49ers

  • LG Aaron Banks left in the third quarter with a calf injury.

  • CMC may miss another week heading to Minnesota this Sunday.

• Seattle Seahawks

  • T George Fant exited the game (knee)

  • Kenneth Walker left with an abdomen injury but says he’s fine, worth watching.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield broke his foot and will miss time, CB Bryce Hall is also ruled out for this week.

  • CBs Zyon McCollum (concussion) and Josh Hayes (ankle) also left the game, leaving this seconday in a bad way heading into week two.

  • The Bucs were already with out starting DLs Calijah Kancey (calf) and Logan Hall (foot) in week one.

• Tennessee Titans

  • RG Dillon Radunz missed a bit of game time with a rib injury but returned

• Washington Commanders

  • DT Jer'Zhan Newton and CB Emmanuel Forbes are worth monitoring for this beleaguered defense.