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It was a fun first two days to get us warmed up for a THIRTEEN-game Sunday slate. Obviously, I wish the Packers could have done better than 1 for 4 in the Red Zone, and Love’s injury was a bummer, but all-in-all, they were two pretty entertaining matchups between teams that could end up playing each other again in January.

Injuries

• Ja’Marr Chase (illness) was reportedly feeling better later in the day after waking up sick yesterday. He’s still listed as questionable. His teammate Tee Higgins is doubtful with his hamstring injury.

• Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (thigh) is expected to go after being questionable all week

• Keenan Allen (heel) is expected to play today for the Bears after being questionable.

• Russell Wilson will have his calf looked at this morning to see if he can play, but the expectation right now is that it’ll be Justin Fields starting at QB for the Steelers. The Steelers will be playing with a backup LG as well as Isaac Seumalo is out with a pec injury.

• He was ruled out earlier this week, but it is worth mentioning again that the Pats will also have a backup guard starting with Sidy Sow sitting due to an ankle injury. RB Antonio Gibson is also on the injury report with a hip and is questionable.

• DeAndre Hopkins is expected to play for the Titans but may be on a snap count with an MCL injury. On the other side of the ball Jamal Adams with miss the game with his hip injury.

• Chargers WR DJ Chark was put on IR

• Bucs defensive lineman Calijah Kancey is OUT for the opener vs Washington as is DE Logan Hall

• Miami CB Jalen Ramsey (hammy) is still listed as questionable for today’s game.

• DE Malcolm Koonce is OUT for the Raiders

• The Colts elevated a kicker from the practice squad, making it seem pretty likely that Matt Gay won’t be able to handle kicking duties today

• Left Tackle Jedrick Wills was ruled out for the Browns earlier this week and right tackle Jack Conklin is also questionable this afternoon vs Dallas.

• A couple of trench players questionable for SNF with DJ Reader nursing a quad injury for Detroit and Rams OT Rob Havenstein working through an ankle injury. The Rams are already down a starter up front due to Alaric Jackson’s suspension.

• Safety Talanoa Hufunga is doubtful for the 49ers tomorrow night.

• Jets WR Mike Williams will play but may be on a snap count for MNF

Weather

• Buffalo hosting Arizona appears to be the windiest game, with gusts approaching the 30 mph range and sustained winds 15-20 crossing the field from side to side.

• Florida weather may have some impacts, with some chances of rain in Tampa Bay and the heat indexes topping out in the triple digits in Miami.

Sunday Bets

I’ll be tailing some props, playing alts & derivatives, and of course doing some live bets but, these are the main looks I have for the week and a little bit on why.

Atlanta -3.5

Later add, but if I’m going to be bullish on this team all summer for their offense, I may as well plant my flag early on. I also don’t hate this matchup on the other side of the ball with some injuries to the Steelers offensive line helping out an Atlanta defensive line that will often be overmatched this year.

Tennessee +4

I'm not just fading a rookie QB on the road early in the year; I really do like this Tennessee defense. L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie would end up being a very good cornerback duo this year and I love the addition of the big man T’Vondre Sweat to an improving front seven. If you want to get excited about Mike MacDonald bringing his brand of defensive magic to Seattle, I think you should also be a little optimistic about Dennard Wilson, his defensive backs coach, now Tennessee’s DC.

Minnesota -1.5

I guess I should start betting in July and get the best of the number, but I still make this value at the current price. Maybe Darnold busts out here as well, but having two top-end WRs, strong tackles protecting him, and KOC calling plays for him, I would think he can have some success against a bad Giants coverage unit. Not having Hockenson back yet stinks, but Aaron Jones is a very nice consolation if he needs someone to dump off to.

Dallas Moneyline +120

This will be a very fun strength on strength matchup between the Cleveland offensive line and the Dallas pass rush. Even with Bland out, I have this coverage unit as a bad matchup for the Browns and make this game a lot closer to a pk’em with what the high-end outcome of Dak and Lamb can be on any given day.

Tampa Bay -3.5

I believe in Baker and am starting to become a conspiracy theorist about just how much credit we need to be giving Dave Canales for his (and maybe Geno’s) success. They still have two very, very good WRs against what I rate as the 32nd-best defensive secondary today at home. Tampa Bay has some deficiencies on the offensive line and defense, but again, this isn’t the team that can exploit those with their current roster. The pass rush and offense are still works in progress.

Teaser Dallas +8.5/Indy +8.5

Doubling down on the ‘Boys in a game with a low total and adding a divisional home underdog that’s not getting much love in the Colts. I’ll have more combinations of these combined with the Giants +7.5 and Cincy -1.5, but this is my favorite one for the week.

Props!

Plenty of action in the 4for4 Discord, but Connor even has a free one this week for the masses after a nice start to the season:

Pick a Side, Win Money

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