I don’t know if there’s a right way and a wrong way to do this, but this is always the week I call “the great reset” for me as I feel like we’ve gotten a decent enough sample of games to start using SOME of this years data in the power ratings.

Sometimes the numbers make some big moves.

This isn’t to say that I haven’t been using the performances of teams so far to inform my numbers. Most of the work behind the ratings up until this point has been based on the numbers I started the season with, plus some adjustments I’ve made based on my best guesses for how well a team actually played in each phase of the game after digging in a bit and maybe even a quick 30-minute rewatch on Monday.

I watch the games, I read the box scores, I look at the stats, and take in plenty of information from smart folks that I follow. I have and will continue to make adjustments based on the eye test. The addition of some stats this week is just another piece of the puzzle.

As always, if you disagree with any of my numbers, please do the reasonable thing and argue with me online. Hell, we have a whole free Discord just for that sort of thing.

Notes:

• There are always still adjustments to be made based on injury news. At this point in the week, I’m doing my best to guess as we wait for more practice reports.

• The current numbers assume Purdy starts for the 49ers, Tyrod is in for the Jets, and Mariota goes for the Commanders. Obviously, Wentz and Browning are in pen for now.

• While it’s the right move, I can’t assume an upgrade for Jaxson Dart. He’s a rookie who looked good against backups in the preseason. Still has to go prove he can play before this offense gets bumped up.

• The next time Tennessee gets moved up may be the “interim coach bump” that seems to be on the horizon.

• Offense always weighs heavier than defense, but the top four teams all have some concerns on the defensive side of the ball for me (which honestly could and should make the playoffs more fun and unpredictable).

Thursday Night Football

I bet the Seahawks.

My numbers disagreed with the opener, and I love what I’ve seen from Klint Kubiak so far, despite the running game not really getting off the ground yet. Moving Darnold around and letting him get the ball out quickly has worked, JSN is having a great season, and this is a defensive secondary that they can definitely keep rolling against.

On the other side of the ball, the Cards have been dealt a bad hand so far on the injury front. Losing a starting RB and WR last week, to go along with the banged-up offensive line and defensive secondary, is going to make this one an uphill battle even at home.

Seahawks 21 - Cards 17

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🚨Week Four Podcast🚨

Drew and I both made several other bets for the week and went over all of Sunday’s games one by one on Wednesday. Complete with time stamps if you want to go grab a second opinion on a specific game.