Week 4 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props

Don’t forget we’ve got a 9:30 AM game!

Both the regular broadcast and the Toy Story Funday Football are streaming on EPSN+

No bet in this one for me, just praying that my Jags can get the offense going in their home away from home.

Jimmy G Ruled Out

This felt like it was always going to be the case, but the Raiders just kept rolling him for practice, making us wonder if someone was finally going to clear protocol in under a week. At least we won’t see Brian Hoyer today. Congrats to anyone who has a long shot AOC OROY ticket, you have hope.

Derek Carr Might Go?

Another one that I thought was more bluster than fact, but apparently, Carr is tough as nails and will be giving it a go? Even injured, this is an upgrade from Winston in a wildly important early season divisional matchup. Not a ton of reaction in the market yet, with this still sitting at NO -3.5

Damar Hamlin Active

With Jordan Poyer out and Taylor Rapp having to step into his spot, Damar Hamlin will be on the active roster this weekend.

Comeback Player of the Year odds had dropped all the way down to about -110 for Hamlin but shot back up to around -275 on the news that he’d be dressing for today’s tilt with Miami.

ALL WEEK 4 INJURY UPDATES

Talked about every game at length on Wednesday evening. Lots of high leverage injuries we were waiting on but still got to the meat of how we felt about each game and even looked into the “first coach fired” market a little at the end. Time stamps in the video notes if you want to skip to a certain game.  The podcast is available as well.

Everything I’ve wagered on:

Minnesota Vikings Team Total over 24.5 -120

The Vikings may not make some wild comeback and win enough games to be relevant this year, but they still have one of the best offenses in the league. I bet this total early in the week but I’m more than happy to add on here with some team total. Carolina has two important pieces on the IR now in Shaq Thompson and Jaycee Horn. FS Xavier Woods and LB Frankie Luvu’s status are also in doubt for this one.

Raiders/Chargers under 48

Two defenses that have struggled equals a high total. For me though, with the rookie starting on the road, even against the Chargers (who have some defensive injuries), this is a little high. I also want to maybe push back on just how bad the LAC defense is looking back at who the first few opponents have been.

The Chargers have looked good, but haven’t played any decent coverage units so far, and now lose Mike Williams for the year. Maxx Crosby playing will be huge for this, as blitzing Herbert isn’t always going to give you the results you’re looking for as a defense.

Broncos -3 -115

This one feels real gross, laying points on the road after getting torched for 10 TDs. Goes without saying that the Bears offensive gameplan and personnel are lacking a bit compared to Miami though. Denver’s defense has been highly disappointing so far this year, but it’s a weakness on weakness matchup with the Fields led Bears O. I actually have seen some signs of life from Denver and Russ when they have the ball and the decimated Bears secondary looks like a great spot to round into form.

Teaser: Eagles -2.5 / Texans +8.5

I make this Eagles line -10 but understand the movement away from that in a divisional game/short week. I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of it from either side of the ball yet with Philly as they started the year with two new coordinators. Just like we saw in preseason, Howell is rough when facing pressure. This week likely won’t get much easier on that front.

The Texans didn’t get all of the injury news I would have liked with Tunsil and a couple defensive starters out still, but it’s hard to deny that Stroud has been well above average so far. Houston did get safety Jalen Pitre back after going down in the week 1 game vs. Baltimore. I’m pretty close on the price (I make it PIT -2.7), but like this one as the Pittsburgh offense has been pretty limited at times and I don’t think it’s a huge ask to just stay within arm’s reach in a low totaled home game.

Brutal luck last week with M.J. Stweart but it’s Sunday and our defensive specialist Ryan Noonan has another prop, even came through extra early this week.

Grant Delpit (CLE) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists (-115)

“Delpit plays a key role in DC Jim Schwartz's single-high safety defense as the box safety, playing at least 36% of his snaps inside the box (ie, closer to the line of scrimmage) in every game this season. That leads to more tackle opportunities, especially against Lamar Jackson and Baltimore, who love to operate over the middle of the field.

Last week, Colts' box safety Julian Blackmon racked up 12 tackles and assists vs. the Ravens, and Bengals box saftey Nick Scott had 8 in Week 2. Delpit has topped this in 2 of 3, but ironically has been hurt by the dominance of the Browns defense. His per snap metrics are elite.”