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Week Four NFL Bets
Weather, Injuries, Situational Stuff and Bets for the Week.
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Good morning! 8 early / 4 late.
Fun football day ahead!— Scott Hanson (@ScottHanson)
11:35 AM • Sep 29, 2024
Injuries
Justin Herbert Sounds like he’s going to give it a go against the Chiefs despite missing some important offensive linemen. It should be interesting.
According to reports, Jordan Love will also play on Sunday. He’s missed two weeks with an MCL sprain.
Snoop Huntley is your starter in Miami with Skylar Thompson injured. Tim Boyle will back him up.
Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are expected to play for the 49ers today.
Bears WR Keenan Allen is expected to return today after missing some time with a heel injury.
The Saints should have both Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave today.
Plenty of WRs will miss, though. The Eagles AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are out, as does the Raiders’ Devante Adams and Houston’s Tank Dell,
More Injury News:
Weather
Rain and wind in a few places, but nothing nuts today. We’re still a few weeks away from the autumn winds and rain lashing down from the great lakes.
LA Rams @ Chicago - Winds getting close to 20 mph and some small chances of rain
Buffalo @ Baltimore - Decent chance of rain during the game, but not as much in the way of winds.
Philly @ Tampa & Cincy @ Carolina - some chances of rain
Minnesota @ Green Bay - winds, but for now, it's not looking like they’ll get over the 15 mph range.
Gonna be hotter than hell and humid in Tampa for the Bucs and Eagles
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Situational
Denver is on the second week of a back-to-back road trip, playing in New Jersey. They did end up staying out east after winning in Tampa Bay, but the Jets are also sitting on extra rest coming off of TNF.
The Patriots are coming off the same extra rest but will be on the road for the second straight week, this time with a cross country trip to San Francisco.
Buffalo and Cincinnati are on short rest coming off of MNF
Washington and Jacksonville are as well but also have to travel for the second straight week. The Commanders headed to Arizona early ahead of their tilt with the Cardinals. The Jags head to Houston after their loss in Buffalo.
The Eagles and Chiefs travel for the second straight week as they head to Tampa and LA, respectively.
Sunday Bets
A bit of a lighter week again, but still some stuff I like heading into the week.
Packers/Vikings over 44
Despite the whole world’s love for the Brian Flores defense, this is an incredibly stiff test against a well-coached and schemed offense on the road with a couple of front seven players still out. While I don’t think it’s all been some big mirage, we did see the 49ers move the ball a bit on the Vikes a couple weeks back and I’d expect a balanced Packers offense to be able to do the same. On the other side, getting Jordan Addison back should help unlock even more of Justin Jefferson, especially with the Packers likely missing their top CB, Jaire Alexander.
Houston -5.5
The injury news this week hasn’t been great for the Texans, but after last week’s performance against the Vikes, I still think this is a buy low on what the offense can do against a bad team. The Jags defense put up little resistance Monday and now travels again on a short week to face another top-end QB with even more defensive injuries after losing Foye Oluokun.
Rams +3
The injuries to the Rams are widespread and awful, but I still can’t quite get to this number for a Bears offense that hasn’t really gotten it altogether around their rookie passer yet. Despite it all, this is a massive coaching mismatch and I have this a lot closer to a pk’em. I think the Rams continue to improve as they get more time to implement the offense as currently rostered (with a heap of backup WRs and OL).
Cardinals -3.5
Between the situational spot for a young QB with a new coaching staff and the fact that they put together a 95th percentile offensive performance last week, I’m forced to face the Commanders this week, even with a team I didn’t expect to be laying points with at all this year. The Cardinals offense should be able to eat against this defense despite the McBride injury.
An AFC East 6-point teaser with some teams figuring things out offensively right now. I make both teams small value against the spread and they grade out as my two favorite teaser legs for the week. I know we’re buying high on Buffalo, but what they do just seems incredibly sustainable (same goes for the Jets), they aren’t relying on low percentage stuff to move the ball, it’s just a solid game plan considering the roster.
More:
We covered all 16 games in our weekly betting preview live stream Wednesday. Time stamps in the video if you wanted to jump to a game and get some quick thoughts ahead of kickoff.
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