Week Five Power Ratings

Bet365 is the official odds provider for the Deep Dive Newsletter.

Probably just being stubborn with my Buffalo number, but for the record, it DID drop a bit. My biggest disconnect with the market seems to be occurring in the Seattle/Giants game. Even putting some additional win probability in for New York based on the rest disparity, I can’t get below a touchdown difference there.

Washington 📈

I was reluctant to push the button too hard, but I had started the season out with a QB rating near the bottom of the league, which Jayden Daniels clearly isn’t.

This offense has played well, albeit against some weaker defensive competition. Nevertheless, this team has forced their way up the ratings and will be one of the most fun to watch all season long, as long the presumptive rookie of the year stays healthy. Minor upgrades across the board for the offense, with the biggest coming to QB/OC.

Other upgrades: CAR, TB, CHI

• The Panthers played another bad defense and put up some points. Not a big upgrade, but this offensive line is playing great and Dalton opens some things up for them for sure.

• Tampa still needs to get healthy, but this was another offensive line I had rated a bit low.

• Even though it was a small bump for the QB play for Chicago, it’s one of the things that I weight the heaviest, so it moves the needle. Upgrades across the defense again helped them jump up as well.

Atlanta 📉

After a win? Why not. The offensive success rate is middle of the pack, the EPA/play is 20th best, the offensive line is beat up and they just lost a key defender. Scoring with the DST is only sustainable if your head coach has some sort of magical Voodoo powers and resides in Pittsburgh. They have a soft landing against a beat up Tampa defense, but the short week is worrisome for a coaching staff that hasn’t impressed.

Other downgrades: LV, DAL, NE

• Dallas is for the defensive injuries, but the offense certainly hasn’t been earning good marks either

• Vegas, similarly has some consiquecial injuries/trade requests as well as an offense that’s stuck in mud, especially with their run

• New England’s offense line injuries mattered even more than I had feared, and they don’t appear to be going away soon. The center is now lost for the season.

Biggest Changes from Preseason Ratings (so far):

• Up: Minnesota, Washington, New Orleans

• Down: Miami, Cleveland, Philly

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

7 PM ET tonight, all 14 games for week five.

Injuries, matchups, our ratings, our bets, and answering your questions live.

As always, it’ll be out in podcast form tomorrow morning.