Titans vs Steelers: Betting on TNF

Week nine starts for me from the airport bar, seeing if a Bloody Mary is the cure for an autumn chest cold. I’ll catch you at halftime from the beach, hopefully with good news on all fronts.

Market

Last week saw this lookahead at Pittsburgh -4 and opened a bit lower with the QB uncertainty on both sides of the game, settling at -2.5 and finding constant resistance at -3 despite good news for Kenny Pickett’s availability. I guess the faith in Will Levis is real (or enough people have seen the Pittsburgh offense)

Small over money came in on the Big Ten level opener of 36. Pretty much settled in at 37 across the market.

Injuries

Most of the Steelers’ injury news is on the defensive side of the ball with DL Cam Heyward returning to the field this week. Unfortunately, they’ll be a little thin at corner with Minkah Fitzpatrick OUT for a hamstring injury and Levi Wallace questionable with a foot injury.

For the Titans, Ryan Tannehill will not be placed on IR just yet, but he’s still out for the time being with his ankle injury. Right tackle Chris Hubbard will also miss for the offense, and like the Steelers, they’ll be hurting in the defensive secondary as well. CB Roger McCreary and S Mike Brown are out.

DeAndre Hopkins is listed as questionable, but he’s expected to play.

Matchup

Pickett is banged up coming off a rib injury that knocked him out of last week’s game and what Will Levis did against Atalanta certainly doesn’t feel sustainable.

I can still hope for a good game, I’m just mentally preparing myself for a bad one. (Bad football is still better than no football)

With Heyward back for Pittsburgh and the Titans slotting a new tackle on the right side, this could be a much more difficult day for Will Levis, now facing a front seven that can get pressure from both edges as well up the middle, preventing him from stepping up for the deep balls that kept them in the driver’s seat versus Atlanta.

Betting

With the injuries to both secondaries and Levis’ penchant for the long ball, I was a little tempted by this over, but the slow starts for the Steelers and the elite red zone defense from the Titans so far (only allowing TDs on 34.62% of drives, good for 2nd best) have me hesitant.

I hate taking RB overs, but in the right matchup sometimes they get home laughably easy (like Gibbs on Monday).

Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in opponent yards per rush and even in a game state where the Titans are trailing, I can’t see Tennessee getting away from the run with an inexperienced QB at the helm, on the road. Heyward’s return matters but so does the absence of Fitzpatrick.

So just the one prop for tonight for me. Just saw a smart fantasy/props guy play this as well to give me even more confirmation on it:

Derrick Henry over 72.5 rushing yards -115

Might not settle this til the second half but I’ll throw the darts nonetheless. Shopped the best prices I could find, as always:

DeAndre Hopkins +950 (FD)

Chigoziem Okonkwo +2000 (DK)

Kenny Pickett +2900 (FD)

Pittsburgh D/ST +3500 (MGM)