🏈Week 9 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props

A bit earlier this morning, because I’m on the West Coast and honestly don’t know what time the games start. Plus, we have the big-time matchup in Germany. I can’t think of an “NFL International Series" game I’ve been more excited for. Probably the Rams/Chiefs game in Mexico City (that was not played in Mexico City).

Germany

The roof is closed, Miami seems to be leading in the vibes department, but KC does treat these like business trips as well. I’m just hoping for early-morning fireworks.

Weather

Virtually zero weather concerns this Sunday. It may be a little cold in Green Bay and a little warm in Carolina, but nothing out of the ordinary, no wind issues and by the looks of it, no precipitation.

Injuries

• Matt Stafford: Probably/Likely out? Sources are saying that Brett Rypien is the starter vs Green Bay. I guess be ready to slam some +3.5 is Stafford is magically healed in a few hours.

• Good news for Miami, Connor Williams and Terron Armstead will both go up front and CB Xavien Howard is also active.

• NO Kyler Murray this week, as most sane people assumed.

• Christian Darrisaw was downgraded to questionable for the Vikings

• Willie Gay will play for the Chiefs’ defense

• Tackle Tyron Smith is expected to play for Dallas today

• Josh Downs is “tracking to play” for the Colts today, might come down to some pre-game testing

• WR Michael Wilson is not expected to play for the Cards today

• Josh Palmer missed practice for the Bolts

• Puka is good to go for the Rams after an injury designation for his knee

Everything I’ve wagered on so far this week:

Ravens -6.5

Liked this more earlier in the week at a better price, but I’m still happy to take a much, much better team at home, hosting a West Coast team in the early window. I don’t want to disparage what Seattle has been able to cobble together on defense with all the youth, but if the pressure can’t get to Lamar today, they will have a hard time dealing with what the Baltimore offense is becoming under Todd Monken. The Seahawks have been one of the least tested defenses so far this year as far as opposing schedule.

On the other side of things, the Baltimore defense is the top EPA/play defense in the league by margin this year if you look at all plays not affected by turnovers. Quietly dominating.

Minnesota/Atlanta under 37.5

I trust KOC to get some semblance of a game plan together, but this is a tough spot for Jaren Hall, making a start on the road for a team already down its top offensive weapon. Furthermore, I doubt he gets a ton of help on the ground. The Vikes’ rushing attack has been toothless as it is and now plays a team that’s been excellent against running backs this year.

Meanwhile, it took half the year, but Brian Flores is starting to turn chicken shit into chicken salad with this Minnesota defense. Despite not having big names, they’ve ranked 11th in overall defensive EPA/play over the past four weeks (which includes games vs KC and SF). I think benching Ridder makes sense, but I don’t see the offense taking a hard turn right away.

Saquon Barkley over 76.5 Rushing Yards -115

Lots to worry about for the interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Starting a rookie QB, disgruntled offensive stars to assuage, a brand new play caller elevated, and a pass rush coming to town that’s starting to round into form. The putrid run defense is probably somewhere on a to-do list, but I don’t see how it’s getting fixed either way. Saquon has no injury designation despite some lingering concerns on the ankle. This is another spot where the lead RB should get lots of totes no matter the game state.

6-Point Teaser: Panthers +8.5 / Giants +7.5

Despite the offense not popping last week versus Houston, they still managed to win and had some nice moments. Still putting some trust in the new OC to get more out of the offense this week. It’s a home game versus a backup QB and the defense is defending the pass fairly well. I would think you’d see a rush-heavy approach from the Colts, not exactly a game plan that leads to blowouts.

More Giants money in a spot where they should obviously be very live to get a win. I guess we’ll find out how healthy Daniel Jones is right away, but this still should be a coaching mismatch even if you are of the mind that Daboll has take a fall from last year’s heights. With the injury report looking better, I’ll fight against the dead cat bounce in Las Vegas, but do with some insurance and bet that the Giants can keep this within a score at worst.

Went over every game on Wednesday afternoon as I fought through the haze of cold medicine and Arthur Smith’s lies. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen instead.

Ryan’s already running hot this week with a winner on Thursday Night Football for the folks in the 4for4 Discord, and he was kind enough to keep me from losing everything last week with a nice look in the Vikings game as well.

Keeping it rolling this morning…

Julian Blackmon (IND) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists +105

From Ryan:

“Blackmon plays a pseudo-LB role for the Colts, playing nearly 60% of his snaps in the box this season. With alpha LB and the league's leading tackler, Zaire Franklin, out for this matchup, there's more meat on the bone for the rest of the Colts’ defenders.

On top of that, this game is in Carolina, which is the best place in the league for assists. 55.2% of the plays in Carolina result in an assist, that's 13% higher than the league average, and they ranked inside the top-3 in this metric last season, too.”