📈NFL Power Ratings Updates, Week 8

Numbers are starting to fall into place, and as we get deeper into the season they will ultimately just keep drifting closer to the market pricing, leaving me looking for edges in situational spots, positional group matchups, and just trying to be ahead of the injury news.

Moves will get smaller and smaller (except in cases of big QB injuries) as we go and we’re already at the point where I didn’t make any much bigger than a full point one way or another. 17 teams stayed within a half-point of where I had them last week. I'm hoping to finish up some longer-term projections this week and create updated prices for divisional odds (tiebreakers are a pain).

There is a new team at the top and a little bit of shuffling amongst the top eight squads for sure though.

There were a few teams deserving of a move though, the biggest adjustment of the week was in the Ravens’, on both sides of the ball:

Baltimore 📈

If the offense looks like that in even half of the remaining games, they have a shot at the top seed in the AFC. They are quietly playing better on the other side of the ball as well. It snuck up on me a bit, but the defense is really looking solid. The team looked great with a lead and seemed to have the game plan figured out post-London. Viable Super Bowl contender.

Other upgrades: NE, JAX, MIN

• New England was just so low for me that they get a bump for showing some signs of life offensively. If I’m going to give Baltimore some leeway for starting the season slow under a new OC, I feel I should do the same for the Pats.

• Jacksonville has been a tough nut to crack for me all year, but they looked very solid on Thursday against a defense that had been playing well all year. They were asked to play 3 games in 11 days with an international flight thrown in and Trevor Lawrence was a top 5 QB over that sample, putting up over 0.2 EPA/play.

• Minnesota not only looked competent on offense without Jefferson but did some nice things late in their win over SF to stymie Purdy and the dangerous 49ers offense. If they can get reasonable performances out of a poorly staffed defense through Flores’ scheme, it’s a team with a shot at a wildcard spot.

Buffalo📉

Don’t get me wrong, this is still a very talented team, but in my ratings, I just did not adjust enough for the injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Sometimes a drop or rise is more of a “two-week aggregate” move from me being too stubborn the week before, or maybe just not getting the right matchup that helped show how big an effect an injury will have. This is one of those for sure. I have Buffalo over two full points worse than their peak a few weeks back.

Other downgrades: LV, SF, TB

• The Raiders isn’t a fair one since it’s a QB thing, but man oh man was that a tough look on Sunday all around. I’ll bump them back up a little if Jimmy gets healthy enough to play again.

• I hate doing this, but when a team gets to the peak of their market, sometimes there’s a drawdown. The 49ers had a tough two-week travel stretch and lost two very winnable games. They had the ball with plenty of time in both and didn’t get it done. The ongoing injuries are a part of this as well.

• Tampa Bay looked very bad, at home, coming off the bye. Baker pulled the wool over some eyes the first few weeks but has been very much a bottom-ten QB in his past two games. They are now facing a short week with some additional injuries.

🚨Live Stream Tonight🚨

Grab a drink and maybe some snacks, cause this one is gonna be a marathon. We’ll try to keep it tight on games we don’t have big opinions on, but with no one on bye, it’s hard to see this coming in under 90 minutes. As always, you can listen to the podcast form tomorrow morning.

If you are able to join live, bring your questions, hot takes, and best player prop angles. There’s not a week that goes by that we don’t learn something from the chat.