Week 7 Power Ratings Updates 📈

Plus some in-season future bets I made, QB injury updates, and a special anniversary

Quick QB Injury Updates

Justin Fields - won't practice today and is doubtful for Sunday. Swelling in thumb going down, but not enough to grip the ball properly. Bagent likely.

Trevor Lawrence - the team signed QB Nathan Rourke to the 53-man roster as insurance on a short week.

Josh Allen - “no concern, we’ll be ready to go”

Jimmy Garoppolo - up in the air, but announced that it will be Aiden O’Connell to start if he can’t go.

Ryan Tannehill - High ankle sprain, same as last year. Vrabel won’t say if it’ll be Malik Willis or Will Levis to start if he can’t go. The Titans are on bye, but sounds as if the team is prepping for time without Tanny.

Deshaun Watson - Quote from Watson: "It's not so much the pain, it's more so if I can throw the football." No real updates, but not sounding great.

Bonus: Kyler Murray - The Cardinals opened the practice window for him.

Slow news week in regards to moves, most of the adjustments were small and measured this week, even after some losses (and near losses) by top teams.

I got rid of the very top tier where SF was by themselves from last week. Not so much for the loss, but for the injuries.

Detroit Lions 📈

Nothing pretty, but still a road win versus a team off the bye. Goff looks just as good as last year and the defense kept Tampa in 3rd and long enough to really stymie the offense.

Other upgrades: HOU, NYJ, MIA

  • New Orleans gave the Texans a boost, but the continued steady hand on the offensive side by the rookie has them pulling ahead of other teams fighting for the lower end of the playoff picture.

  • The Jets defense will always keep them in games, and it’s not just the talent. The scheme last week forced the Eagles into uncomfortable situations and allowed the team to sneak a win out

  • Miami keeps getting nudged up. The strength of opponent was next to the bottom last week, but explosive plays and performing well in the red zone count for a lot, no matter who you’re playing.

New England 📉

Had to check to see and yes, the Pats are again near the top of the downgrades. You can’t win without good receivers and this defense is starting to show cracks after losing some key pieces. No longer the generic version of the Jets, if they can’t slow down other offenses, they’ll start getting lapped.

Other downgrades: CAR, PHI, ATL, ARI

  • Carolina is on bye and has the exciting prospect of a new play caller in two weeks, but to not really do anything for the final three quarters against a below-average Miami defense is damning even after the nice start.

  • Philly is dealing with some injuries! It’s crazy that both undefeated teams had to go on the road versus very good defenses in the same week and lost, but I’m currently more worried about the Eagles. If they can’t run, the offense really sputters.

  • Atlanta lost to a bad team, at home. Turnovers and weird play-calling are ruining what should be a fun team.

  • James Conner was one the best players on the Arizona offense and his loss mattered. Secondary doesn’t have the chops to hang

Updated Season Sims

An updated look at the Regular Season Win Totals

I ran some season-long sims using a tool put together by someone smart in the Discord as well as using a simple projection of my numbers and found a few bets I liked and a few things to monitor.

A couple of “close but not quite” were Miami over 11.5, the Jets over 6.5 and Pittsburgh to make the playoffs at +146!

The two wagers I DID make:

Las Vegas under 7.5 wins +125

I have this closer to 7 and have to throw in a dash of the fact that the QB went to the damn hospital last week. Not expecting a slip-up vs Tyson Bagent, but it’s still a road game and I can hope. Lions, Dolphins, and Chiefs x2 all remaining, just need 4-3 or worse in the other seven if they get swept by the “good teams”

Atlanta to miss the playoffs -115

Not a tough schedule at all, but I currently project them with the 9th-best record in the NFC, with 8-9 being the most likely finish. My current wildcard projections would be Dallas/Philly, Seattle, and Los Angeles for the NFC.

Couldn’t quite pull the trigger on:

Dallas under 10.5 wins +125 - Very rough schedule down the stretch but will re-evaluate after the Rams game off the bye.

Baltimore over 10.5 wins +125 - I don’t like taking this at the moment considering how I feel about this week’s matchup with Detroit but will want to see what the updated price looks like next week if they lose.

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🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

Live Show tonight at the normal time (8ET), hop in and pepper us with questions/comments/opinions/taeks. We’ll go over any best we’ve made so far for week seven.

As always, you can consume it in podcast form tomorrow morning.

Happy Anniversary to this “fake punt”

What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?

  • TNF Best Bets

  • First TD scorer darts

  • Injuries and availability updates as we get closer to Sunday

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