Brief takeaways bouncing around my head on this Monday morning:

Raiders 12 - Bears 30

Bagent was an admirable game manager and took care of the ball. The Bears’ defense is playing a bit better of late and was really solid against the run. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ defense made the Bears’ backup’s backup look pretty good. I’m not sure what the game plan is at QB going forward, but with a road game in Detroit up next, maybe they’ll change their tune about moving Adams to a contender.

Browns 39 - Colts 38

“Myles Garrett was outstanding in a game where the Colts scored 38 against the Browns” is a weird sentence that doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you watched this one. So is “Gardner Minshew turns the ball over 4 times by himself but still threw for 300 yards and almost won this game with some big-time plays”. Putting this whole game in the “sometimes football gets weird” bin. Watson MRI is worth monitoring today, again.

Bills 25 - Patriots 29

Bills’ defensive injuries are turning out to be more of an issue than thought/hoped. Only one sack all night and was never more noticeable than on the final drive where Mac Jones, moved down the field with ease to win the game. New England’s offense looked a little more spry in the positive matchup but still needed the late GWD to get over the hump. The defense looked decent at home, didn’t stop Allen, but limited him at times.

Commanders 7 - Giants 14

The biggest takeaway was the Giants defense. Not just the sacks (everyone sacks Howell), but doing a good job keeping everything in front of them limiting chunk plays, and of course, playing well in the Red Zone. Before their final drive, Washington had fewer than 200 total yards for the day. Winning a divisional matchup with your backup is huge, even if the Giants offense made it harder than it had to be.

Falcons 16 - Buccaneers 13

First glance, I thought the Falcons were lucky to have won this in the end, but the Bucs were probably lucky to even be in it late thanks to some massive turnovers by Atlanta. Both QBs had some big plays while looking very mediocre in a messy one with five turnovers, four of which were in the Red Zone. Hard to take a ton away with those sorts of shenanigans mucking up the boxscore. The Bijan thing is weird, I’m curious to see if we get a full update on what happened there.

Lions 6 - Ravens 38

Simply put, all the bad things the Ravens did for the past 6 weeks stopped happening, and the offense fired on all cylinders. This is the team people were excited about in August. Lions are still a good team, but this isn’t a defense you want to face in an uphill battle in comeback mode having to throw. Goff sacked 5 times and hit eight more. Lamar won an MVP for a reason and apparently can reach that sort of level again.

Steelers 24 - Rams 17

Steelers’ defense keeps them in games and the offense did just enough to win it. Very sleepy start that opened up in the 2nd half with a big play by T.J. Watt leading to the first Steelers TD. Pickett was impressive late, 2/3 of their total yards came on the final three drives: two TDs and a late grinder to run the clock out. The Rams had much less success running this week and only really had one nice drive after halftime. If they can’t find ways to keep Kupp/Nacua involved all game, they’ll fall out of the wildcard race.

Cardinals 10 - Seahawks 20

The Cardinals played well enough for most of the game, but the Seattle defense did its part late and somehow Seattle covered all the numbers. Geno with a lead was an adventure. A nice drive out of the half ended with a FG after 1st and goal from the one, followed by two drives ending in turnovers and a three and out. The defense picked them up against an Arizona team that’s now failed to score after halftime for the second straight week, averaging 4.3 points per 2H, dead last.

Packers 17 - Broncos 19

The Broncos are the opposite of the Steelers. Their offense keeps the other team in the game. Jordan Love may be bad but somehow still found his way back into this one. Denver mustered just enough to get a 52-yard field goal to take the lead for good, but it’s likely going to continue to be a tough team to take seriously against upper-level competition if the offense can’t finish drives. 1-4 in the red zone without a turnover.

Chargers 17 - Chiefs 31

Mahomes was special, but that sort of thing happens half a dozen times per year, so we take it for granted. Herbert was good, just can’t have those turnovers on the road versus anyone, much less the champs. Kelce destroying the zone for the first 30 minutes was something to watch, but the KC defense gave up some big plays, something that was lacking for LAC a bit in last week’s loss to Dallas. The Chargers are sitting behind Las Vegas in the standings but have played a tough schedule. Mahomes should be the MVP favorite this morning anywhere you bet.

Dolphins 17 - Eagles 31

Similar to the Bills game a few weeks back, the Dolphins offense is a bit harder to get going when chasing against a good defense. The Eagles having the 4th and short play in the bag feels unfair if you’re against them. Just as you feel a little bit of excitement for a tackle that drops a runner short on third down, the dread of what’s coming next sets in.

Masked by the big win: Hurts doesn’t look fully healthy and had two big turnovers, adding to his growing total.

Sunday Betting Recap

Lots of teaser legs got home, unfortunately, the one I picked to put in the newsletter got Mac Jonesed. The holdover teaser I placed last MNF with the Chargers and Seahawks cashed to make me feel a little better. The Bears/Raider over took some late magic, but the Raiders really should have gotten more done early. Rams/Steelers under had a dream start, got really ugly in the midgame and stayed under thanks to a horrible spot that ended any hopes of a Rams comeback. Chiefs -5 got home after a very weird 2H that was on the cusp of being scoreless after a 41-point 1H. The late night over’s split, getting the 1H home but the main bet on the full game over 51.5 fell short as Tua just couldn’t deliver a backdoor for the over. Props from the 4for4 guys both lost, but I trust them to get us there over the course of 18 weeks.

Hope you had a successful Sunday, because we’re on to Monday and week 8.

Market

With all the injuries in the matchup vs Cleveland, this side and total have taken a little bit of a journey. This lookahead was SF -7.5 last week and despite the injuries still opened at -7 on Sunday night with Vikings money taking it down to 6.5 on Monday. Back and forth through the week, it’s currently up to a cheap -7 at some places with some gameday SF money coming in.

The Total has been nothing but under money during the week taking it down from 44.5 to 43 by Sunday (lookahead was 47 but also saw some under steam even on the lower limits last week).

The game day money has been to the over with several places up as high as 44 again, likely on the good news for CMC.

Injuries

Trent Williams is doubtful, Deebo is missing the next couple of weeks but we will see Christian McCaffrey in tonights game. LB Dre Greenlaw is questionable after being limited in practice Thursday and Friday with a hamstring injury.

The Vikings’ injury report was short, but also glosses over the fact that pass rusher Marcus Davenport went to the IR on Wednesday, leaving them in the same spot as early in the season that led to Flores blitzing at an insane rate to try to generate any sort of pressure on opposing QBs.

CB Akayleb Evans is questionable with an oblique injury and guard Ezra Cleveland has been ruled out. Recently signed Dalton Risner will start in his place.

Matchup

Situationally this is a bad spot for SF, traveling across multiple time zones for the second straight week and sitting on some key injuries. Matchup-wise, this is a below-average Minnesota defense that just lost a key piece. Despite the missing players, the 49ers should be able to beat this secondary. If the pass rush is ineffective and blitzes leave the MN corners alone with Aiyuk, Kittle, Jennings, etc, Purdy should have an easy time finding open guys downfield.

It’s difficult to judge a team in one game sample, especially on the road, against a divisional opponent. Even so, it’s fair to say that the Minnesota offense is obviously less explosive and less dangerous without Justin Jefferson on the field. The nice Bears’ defensive performance on Sunday vs Las Vegas had me wondering how much credit I should give them, but it still stands: Minnesota put up 4 YPP against an inferior team and couldn’t run the ball. A defensive TD was the difference on the scoreboard. That won’t fly vs SF.

If the 49ers’ defense plays to the level at which we’ve seen all year, the loss of Deebo may not matter tonight, as it won’t take a high-scoring output to get a road win against the Jefferson-less Vikes.

MNF Betting:

A lot of how we view this game will come down to how far these teams can play from some lows in week 6. Sure Minnesota won, but that was far from an impressive day for them. The 49ers get some extra time to prep here, but obviously, the injuries loom large and this is a second straight week of travel to the Midwest.

The 49ers defense has allowed just 1.8 red zone trips per game this year and can thrive in a positive game state with their pass rush and coverage at both the LB and DB levels. Only negative Minnesota things for me here.

Two prop/derivative bets I made for tonight:

Kirk over 0.5 interceptions -135

Vikings Team Total under 18.5 -115

Thank you to basically everyone I associate with for picking Goedert last night, it was a nice way to start the game. Today (I believe) is the day I break the long cold streak on these in newsletter form. Going 49er-heavy as they’ve been very good early in games, and they are just that much better. Not getting rich with the pricing tonight, but hopefully, I don’t get slightly poorer.

Aiyuk +800 (MGM)

Kittle +1000 (Bet365)

Mitchell +1050 (Rivers)

Hockenson +1300 (DK)