Weather🌩️

A few games are getting impacted by some high winds on the East Coast to keep an eye on.

Detroit @ Baltimore

Looking like sustained winds in the 18-20 mph range with some gusts up to 25 during the game. No real risk of precip on top of it, just a really blustery day.

Buffalo @ New England

This one was actually projected to be worse, with some 35+ mph gusts this morning calming down by game time. Still bad, but looking like 15+ winds with gusts in the low 20s.

Washington @ NY Giants

Pretty much the same story as Foxboro, sustained winds above the 15 mph threshold with some gusts getting as high as 25 at times.

Keep an eye on Miami @ Philly and LA Chargers @ Kansas City. Neither looks too bad at the moment, but the weather can certainly change as they are both later start times.

Injuries🤕

• Cleveland: Sounds like Deshaun Watson may start, Kareem Hunt trending toward out

• Seattle: RB Zach Charbonnet is not expected to go, DK Metcalf is a true game-time decision

• NY Giants: Daniel Jones got a surprising Questionable tag but is looking like he’s out until next week vs the Jets. Andrew Thomas is on a similar path.

• Green Bay: Aaron Jones is expected to play for the Pack today.

• Las Vegas: Jimmy G is expected to be back next week for the MNF game at Detroit

• Chicago: Justin Fields is already being ruled out for NEXT WEEK

• San Francisco: Deebo is missing two weeks, Trent is out, but CMC may play Monday

Went over every game on Wednesday afternoon, even the bad games. A couple of disagreements, most notably in the SNF game but we found a few spots we both strongly agreed on as well. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen at 2x instead.

Everything I’ve wagered on so far this week:

Kansas City -5

The market has seen this get pushed down a few times after being bet up to -5.5 or so, which makes me nervous, but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one. I have this as a sizeable edge just from a power rating/matchup standpoint without even factoring in the rest advantage. Kansas City is coming off a TNF game, giving Reid extra time to prep for a familiar foe, while the Bolts are off an MNF loss, meaning they lose a day of prep. I know that’s all factored in to this price, but I think it also gives us the edge case of KC winning by margin more often.

Happy to back a very good KC defense vs a team that can’t quite sort out what to do offensively outside of the targets to Keenan.

Las Vegas/Chicago over 37.5

Not super pumped for this one, but sometimes it’s the gross ones that get home the easiest.

Trying to take some team stats and tendencies and use them with different starting QBs can be a bit of a tricky endeavor, but Hoyer isn’t a massive downgrade in this offense considering his experience and the weapons he has to work with (he led two red zone reaching drives int he 2H vs NE last week).

Eddie Jackson out and Jaquan Brisker nursing a groin injury has me liking the Raiders offense to break out a little on the road. The Bears are a bit of a wildcard, but if they can just get the ball in D.J. Moore’s hands, things seem to find a way of working out.

These are bottom-ten defenses by both DVOA and EPA/play. I think we can get into the 40s here.

Pittsburgh/LA Rams under 44

The Market seems to like the Rams’ overs the past few weeks, and this one was also bet up a little after opening 42/42.5 on Sunday. I don’t have a ton of stats to back up the move in this one with a tough Steelers defense (and a tough-to-watch Steelers offense) coming to town. The Rams struggled at times last week versus Arizona and now turn to the backfield of misfit toys after losing Kyren Williams to injury. If the Steelers’ defense has a weakness, it’s definitely defending the run, so this total may come down to if Darrell Henderson is any good anymore. I’m willing to wager against that.

Miami/Philadelphia over 51.5

Call it square, I don’t care. I have this well above 55 in my model and really think this only stays under in a situation where Miami lets us down and Philly is in a game state where they are playing from ahead and killing big chunks of clock/my soul. These are two flawed defenses that can be exposed a bit and both teams have the playmakers on offense to do just that.

Jalen Carter and Darius Slay are reported as in, but the Eagles’ defense will be missing their best safety in Blankenship and their nickel corner, Bradley Roby. I also put some money on over 24.5 for the 1st half.

Teaser: Seattle -2 / Buffalo -2

Even with DK Metcalf possibly out and Zach Charbonnet missing this one, I have this as a sizable advantage against the Arizona defense. I had been eyeing this over, but Seattle has been tackling so well of late and the Cards offense seems to be much worse off without James Conner, so just sticking to the teaser leg here.

Buffalo is a bit tougher considering it’s a divisional road game with bad weather. I still show a slight edge on their side after continuing to downgrade the Pats’ defense after the injuries. The Bills’ have had similar defense-crippling losses in the past few weeks as well, but I have their offensive rating just miles higher at the moment and prefer the teaser spot to laying the eight points.

Bonus: Game I wouldn’t bet on with your money

Baltimore hosting Detroit is a massive mind pretzel game for me. The Ravens haven’t faced a good, healthy QB yet, maybe inflating their defensive prowess? Jared Goff has sometimes struggled in outdoor games, and the weather is looking a bit rough. Baltimore is hosting but also traveled back from London after last week’s game. So many moving parts here. Classic “won’t bet, but will watch the entire game” game.

Another week of grinding defensive stats and betting into the prop markets for our guy Ryan Noonan. 

He’s going with a solo tackle prop in an afternoon game for the free newsletter play:

Levi Wallace (PIT) Over 2.5 Solo Tackles (+105 DraftKings)

“Cornerbacks are averaging an insane 18.5 tackles and assists per game against the Rams this season. That's the highest rate in the league and it accounts for nearly 40% of all the tackles against them. That's about 12% higher than the league average rate, and accounts for nearly 5.5 more tackles per game.

In this spot with uncertainty in the backfield, I expect the Rams to lean on their passing game even more. Wallace and Patrick Peterson should have their hands full here, and Wallace is the better tackler and has the better betting option here (Peterson o1.5 is -195).

With cornerbacks, I prefer solo tackles due to the nature of how CBs get tackles. Wallace has just 2 assists in the past four weeks. I'm fine with over 3.5 tackles + assists with a projection of 4.2 if you don't have the solo option available. Wallace has topped this in four straight games and we'll back him here to make it five in a row.”