Week 6 NFL Betting

Back to the grind with a handful of Sunday bets

Injuries 🤕

  • Kyler Murray was finally ruled out with his foot injury. Jacoby Brissett will get the start for the Cardinals. They will also go to the backup punter, Pat O’Donnell, with Black Gillikin suffering from a back injury.

  • Lamar Jackson will continue to miss time with his hamstring injury. Cooper Rush gets the start again. Kyle Hamilton, Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey are all good to go though.

  • The Jaguars will be getting DE Travon Walker back after his wrist surgery two weeks ago.

  • RB Alvin Kamara is expected to play for the Saints today (ankle)

  • The 49ers activated S Malik Mustapha from the PUP list; he’s expected to play vs Tampa today.

  • Seahawks CB Riq Woolen has been ruled out. Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon are doubtful, but Demarcus Lawrence is playing

  • WR Jalen Coker has been ruled out for the Panthers.

  • RB Nyheim Hines will be active for the Chargers after their multiple injuries to the backfield.

  • Raider TE Brock Bowers remains out with his knee injury.

  • The Packers added another kicker to the active roster with Brandon McManus dealing with a quad injury. Lucas Havrisik may end up taking kicking duties today.

  • Dallas RB Miles Sanders was officially put on the IR yesterday.

  • Lions OT Taylor Decker is again OUT with his shoulder injury

  • LB Matt Milano will miss this week’s game for the Bills’ defense after reinjuring himself. S Damar Hamlin is headed to the IR for them as well.

  • Despite a questionable tag, Bengals star WR Ja’Marr Chase is very much expected to play.

  • No Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, or Mike Evans for the Bucs

  • Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall are still out for the 49ers.

  • Xavier Worthy seems likely to go after getting a Friday practice in for the Chiefs

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Weather ⛈

  • LA Rams at Baltimore - chances of rain in this one, with some winds in 15-20 mph and gusts above 30.

  • Dallas at Carolina - a small chance of rain with strong winds 15-20 mph and gusts over 35 mph.

  • Detroit at Kansas City - small chance of some scattered storms.

Situational 📆

  • Just in case you forgot (or thought, surely the London games are over for the year by now), Denver vs the NY Jets is in London.

  • Speaking of, the Browns opted not to take their bye coming back from London and instead will face the Steelers on the road. On top of it all, Pittsburgh is off its bye and has had extra rest in this one. Not ideal.

  • Dallas is on the 2nd week of road games in Carolina today, as is Detroit (taking on the Chiefs in primetime tonight), New England (heading to the Big Easy), Tennessee (Vegas), and San Francisco (Tampa).

  • Cardinals, Seahawks, Chargers, and Rams are traveling East for an early kick

  • Atlanta and Chicago are both off their bye for tomorrow’s Monday night football matchups. Green Bay is also coming off the bye week, hosting the Bengals (and Joe Flacco, again).

  • Jacksonville and the LA Rams are on deck for the next London game, so monitor their travel situations ahead of next week.

  • Houston and Minnesota are off this week.

Sunday Bets

Light week (but listeners of the podcast know that it started strong with some Giants +7)

Dallas Team Total over 26.5

Maybe the weather gets me, or the injuries catch up, but for now, this is one of the most significant mismatches on the board for an offense the way it’s being schemed, called, and ultimately executed, even without some key pieces at WR/RB/OL. I’m going to continue buying on Dak until he breaks down.

Saints +3.5

Spencer Rattler isn’t a great QB, but he’s proving to be miles better than what I expected to start the season. Meanwhile, the Pats’ pass defense is performing at expected levels (low) as the Drake Maye show comes off a big win and has to back it up for the second week on the road. It’s like the old tennis adage: it’s not really a break of serve until you consolidate it. I think we see a close one here, and barring that, love an underdog to at least backdoor against one of my lowest-rated coverage/pass rush combos.

Seattle Moneyline -106

The defensive injuries for this Seattle team are a bummer and are likely holding them back from joining the top tier in the NFC, but I’m still on my crusade against a Jags team that’s made a living off of turnovers so far. They are 6th in the league defensively in EPA/play against, but 23rd if you exclude turnovers for all teams. Darnold has been quietly great this year, and the Hawks' decision to jettison the OC after just one season and bring in Kubiak is looking extremely smart right now.

Props

Will continue to just listen to the smart folks of the Discord for TD props and mash unders from the SharpStack tool. I even used it to play some college football yesterday, going 2-5 on some props and longshots (but making money since Northwestern +999).

I don’t have as many betting options in Minnesota, but I still have made a few bucks the last few weekends after the dust has settled. TRY IT FREE FOR 7 DAYS. 

Finally, if you wanted a quick opinion on any of the other games for Sunday, we went over them all, time stamps included. Best of luck, gamble responsibly, and enjoy another day of football on for 14+ hours.

One last thing: do me a favor and forward this email to someone who might appreciate a bit more football in their life.