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Week 5 Power Ratings Updates
My up to the minute Tiers, Defensive Awards Updates, and a big trade
Andy Molitor
October 04, 2023
Jackson heads back to New England
I have no idea why I spent time making a chart last week with my own stupid brand of color coding when this template has existed for years and makes it a ton easier.
These ARE IN ORDER but the gaps in the top, middle, and bottom tiers are very small with a little more spreading out in the “Very Good” and “Bad with upside” tiers. Still weighing priors heavily this early in the year, but with some clarity on where teams are slotting, it’s beginning to get a bit easier to give the early season strength of opponent some context.
turn it sideways, Monsieur de Moivre
Houston 📈
Time to take what DeMeco Ryans is doing seriously. Who knows which of the three QBs taken early in the draft will have the best career, but obviously the early returns for Stroud have been great (shoutout Bobby Slowik?) Pairing Stroud with an offensive mind who worked at PFF and spent time under Kyle Shanahan seems to be working out.
Other upgrades: BAL, BUF, TB, DET
Baltimore had it easy last week but good teams win games like that in convincing fashion. Too much upside at QB to keep them too low.
Buffalo is so wildly efficient on offense right now, I’m still befuddled by what happened that first week versus the Jets
Tampa Bay has gotten an easy schedule and they’re making the most of it. Baker isn’t blowing games for them and they can certainly win the South. Losing Evans could be an issue though.
Detroit looked good on both sides of the ball and got a massive divisional win last week. We talked about it on the podcast last week, it’s a schedule that could see them in a two-seed if things shake out right.
Cincinnati 📉
It’s not like this team would be better with Jake Browning under center right? But it’s clear that without the explosive plays that only a healthy Joe Burrow gives you, this is a bad offense. Even if he’s back to full health in a few weeks, this hole may be too deep to dig out of.
Other downgrades: PIT, CLE, NO, NE
The Steelers offense is offensive. Not really breaking news here.
Watson coming back should boost the Browns, but the Chubb injury has taken its toll and the Left Tackle is suddenly a huge liability.
Carr was not healthy, but the Saints need to figure out something offensively soon if it wants to compete for a very attainable NFC South crown.
The new-look New England offense isn’t passing the smell test so far and they just lost two great defenders. Similar to the previous three teams, the defense can’t carry an offense playing this poorly.
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Defensive Player of the Year
No One Making a Run at the Top
Very little movement again, the top three guys are very, very good (none of them really had big weeks though).
Looking at the also-rans is something I try to do each week as a bit of a brain exercise, mapping out a path for them to breach this top tier. Bosa is the most likely to be regarded as being part of a dominant defense but would obviously need to rack up some big stats as well to repeat.
Without flexing another one in, the 49ers do have four more primetime games this year, including the next two weeks, so maybe a buy spot if you’re interested.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Seattle May Have Something Here
Still, Carter leading the pack, but Devon Witherspoon showed the power of “one big game on Primetime” as he jumps up from 21/1 to +300 this week passing a lot of other guys.
Witherspoon vs. NYG: 7 tackles, 3 QB hits, 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, and a pick-six
My Gonzo ticket went into the fireplace with his injury, but sometimes that’s just how it goes. I won’t be adding anything to the portfolio here, but Will Anderson’s number is starting to become interesting, driving out to 9/1 from last week’s +550.
Coach of the Year
Co-Favorites Emerge (Road is Restored)
Construction on the shrine to Mike McDaniel has halted as a new God has joined his ranks. Not up at FanDuel yet, but DraftKings has McDaniel and Lions HC Dan Campbell as +350 co-favorites right now. As mentioned last week, someone WILL win the North and have a hell of a narrative to go with it. Both Miami and Detroit have some tough road games over the next six weeks to sort this out.
A surprise entry into the mix: Kyle Shanahan at 10/1 sitting with the rookie HCs of the AFC South. Huge game Sunday, but a convincing win over another top-end team may have Shanny as a clear third choice (the Dolphins and Lions are the two biggest favorites on the board, so barring disaster, the top two should remain.)
Sean McDermott’s number is a bit interesting until you look at the schedule leading into the playoffs. Just a brutal final six weeks for Buffalo.
🏈Podcast Tonight🏈
Finally, the bye weeks are upon us and we get a little respite from the massive slates. The show should come in under 2 hours tonight for sure! Join us live on YouTube if you want to chime in with questions or comments. As always, the whole thing (time stamps included) with be in podcast form tomorrow morning.
What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?
TNF Best Bets
First TD scorer darts
Injuries that Matter
A wrinkle in the Comeback Player of the Year award
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