NFL Week Five Early Line Moves 📊
MNF Recap, a look at the markets for this week and offensive awards updates after Miami lost a game.
Gambling Rules Updated!
With some updates to the punishments, the NFL retroactively changed the length of a couple of suspensions and the Lions will get another offensive weapon earlier than expected. (crib notes on all the changes)
Neither team was particularly sharp offensively. I’m not trying to make a case for the Giants here, but the three Seattle TDs were a pick-six, a 7 yard drive off a fumble, and the Noah Fant scamper that featured some really awful effort from the NY defense.
The big difference in the game was 100% Seattle defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt’s blitz packages. We like to talk about how aggressive Martindale is with the blitz for New York, but there’s a big difference between being aggressive and being effective. Seattle saw FOUR players rack up multiple sacks, and only one was a true edge rusher (Uchenna Nwosu). Inside LBs Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks as well as Rookie DB Devon Witherspoon had two a piece. With the injuries, Witherspoon was back at nickel corner, and absolutely ate the Giants up. Even without the pick-six, he had a massive day.
We’ve already tweet like 10 Devon Witherspoon highlights.
They just don’t stop.
Seahawks rookie CB was the best player on the field today.
— Sports ON Tap Seattle (@SeattleONTap)
Oct 3, 2023
It was probably a bit of a risky move since the coverage unit was missing players and leaving them in one-on-ones is dangerous, but it makes a ton of sense as well. The Giants O-Line was beat up, they don’t have dangerous WRs, and the Seattle front had not been getting to the QB all year. Bring the house from the second and third levels and the rest will sort itself out.
Seattle had five total sacks through three weeks. They had eleven last night.
It’s tough to go to battle missing offensive linemen, but Seattle was in the same boat! The bright spot for the Giants? Maybe Daniel Jones as a runner. The ground game was pretty gross with Barkley out, Matt Brieda put up an uninspiring 14 for 30 on the ground in his absence, but Jones had several nice scampers. As a million people have pointed out, it’s not going to get better for New York with the Dolphins and Bills up next.
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson)
Oct 3, 2023
Betting was sub-par: Long shots on first TD and Charbonnet fell flat, but I did get the Daniel Jones INT prop home! As for plus money on Waller to have five catches? I still have no idea why they decided to ignore him. He got his first target and catch with six and change left in the first quarter. The prize offseason acquisition was not targeted again until there was 5:26 left in the game and the Giants were down three scores.
Already some strong reactions to a few openers and some big adjustments from last week’s early peeks. Quick thoughts on some of the moves we’ve seen already for week five:
Houston (@ Atlanta): +3 to pk
Four good weeks of CJ Stroud overperforming and Desmond Ridder underperforming. Home game for the Falcons, but still a spot where they are traveling back from London. The market is expecting Atlanta to continue to be one-dimensional on offense, I suppose.
Miami (vs NYG): Lookahed -9, Reopens -11
Short week, not sure we see Thomas or Barkley back yet. Terron Armstead's status still up in the air for Miami but so far, no appetite for the big road dog in this one this morning.
Baltimore (@ Pittsburgh): -2 to -4.5
Not just a sad-sack offense for the Steelers, but a sad-sack offense that lost their QB. Baltimore getting all the breaks after avoiding Watson last week and could be 3-0 in the division after this, with all three wins on the road. Positive injury reports for the Ravens could push this further.
The Steelers have put together 48 drives this season:
- 46% ended in 3 plays or less
- 50% ended in a punt
- 67% ended in a punt, turnover, or turnover on downs
This offense isn’t just bad, it’s abysmal.
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel)
Oct 3, 2023
Arizona (vs. Cincy): +5 to +3 & 42 to 44.5
No one has much faith in the Bengals offense with Burrow playing hurt, but the interesting thing is that this moved towards the underdog while the total went up. This indicates some expectation of Dobbs to keep Dobbing and continue to have this team looking good on offense.
Philly @ LA Rams: Total 47 to 50.5
Rams offense continues to look good and we’re apparently putting faith in Stafford to come through and play well after a hip injury. The Eagles have been fine, but good passing attacks have been able to find some weak spots in the secondary. Is Cooper Kupp back?
"He's practicing next week." Sean McVay, pretty firmly, on Cooper Kupp, whose 21-day activation window opens next week. Says he "100%" factors in Kupp's opinion on how he feels re. game activation - won't be reckless, he says, but adds Kupp knows his own body.
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue)
Sep 29, 2023
Jets (@ Denver): +3 to +1 and 41 to 43.5
Zach Wilson played with some confidence last week versus a decent defense, so why not? This is a defense that made Justin Fields look like Joe Montana for a full quarter of football last week. Again, the dog is shortening and the total is ticking up, folks are betting on Zach to put up points here.
Green Bay (@Las Vegas): pk to -2
Long rest spot for Green Bay with the 11-day prep. I assumed Jimmy G would return here, but nothing is guaranteed when you’re dealing with concussions. Green Bay’s injury reports will help dictate this market as well, but we get them a day later since it’s an MNF.
I'm going to keep it short today since it’s the start of playoff baseball and my Twins have been blessed with a mid-afternoon game that no one will attend, plus I’m planning on a full awards update article tomorrow to tie up the whole shebang.
The main sentiment this week: Dolphins are still good, but maybe some other players are better.
Josh Allen since starting 0-1:
🔹 85.2% adjusted completion percentage (1st)
🔹 812 passing yards
🔹 10 total TDs (1st)
🔹 125.8 passer rating (1st)
🔹 Outscoring opponents 123-33
— PFF (@PFF)
Oct 2, 2023
Josh Allen may have had his best half of football ever and leapfrogged a couple of guys. A big win over the “media champs” goes a long way. The top eight listed are still QBs, I’m not really buying into the CMC MVP stuff (yet). Burrow rightfully dropped well down the odds board.
Stroud won and looked good, honestly thought this would go even closer to even money than it is. Puka and Achane also shortened while Bijan just continues to hold strong in a weird spot where the offense sucks but he’s still very fun. I’m starting to get tempted by the Richardson price, he has a decent matchup this week at home versus Tennessee.
Is this the biggest price we’ll see on McCaffrey for the rest of the year? I know sometimes the 49ers don’t get the credit they deserve due to the “system”, but man he’s on pace to tickle 2,000 yards rushing with 30 TDs. Jefferson and Hill have massive stat line potential as well and CMC is known to miss time. I’m not interested in anything here at the moment.
What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?
Updated Power Ratings
A look at the defensive awards
Early bets I’m making on Week 5