Long day ahead, pace yourself on the drinks, wings, and live bets. We’ll be doing this for four straight weeks with Euro games through week seven.

Injuries 🤕

Baltimore Ravens

• Jovaughn Gwyn (C): out (ankle).

• Trey Hendrickson (EDGE): out (finger).

• Ronnie Stanley (LT): questionable (toe).

• Chris Moore (WR): questionable (ankle).

• Zay Flowers (WR): questionable (hamstring). Expected to play.

Buffalo Bills

• T.J. Sanders (DE): doubtful (illness).

• Christian Benford (CB): questionable (toe).

Carolina Panthers

• Damien Lewis (LG): out (elbow).

• Lee Hunter (DE): questionable (foot).

• Monroe Freeling (RT): questionable (concussion), expected to play.

• Jalen Coker (WR): questionable (quad) but trending towards not playing

Chicago Bears

• Braxton Jones (LT): out (knee).

• Caleb Williams (QB): out (hamstring). Bagent expected to start

• Cam Lewis (CB): doubtful (hip).

Cincinnati Bengals

• Bryan Cook (S): questionable (ankle).

• Dalton Risner (RG): questionable (knee).

Dallas Cowboys

• Cobie Durant (CB): out (hamstring).

• DeMarvion Overshown (LB): out (hamstring).

Detroit Lions

• D.J. Reed (CB): questionable (rib).

Green Bay Packers

• Aaron Banks (LG): out (knee, toe).

• Jacob Monk (RG): out (quad).

• Warren Brinson (DT): out (calf/groin).

Houston Texans

• Azeez Al-Shaair (LB): out (groin).

• Nico Collins (WR) is back, as is Jadeveon Clowney (Edge).

• Ed Ingram (RG): questionable (groin).

• Jake Hansen (LB): questionable (knee).

Indianapolis Colts

• Keenan Allen (WR): out (groin).

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Montaric Brown (CB): questionable (hamstring).

Kansas City Chiefs

• Josh Simmons (LT): out (back).

Las Vegas Raiders

• Jackson Powers-Johnson (RG): out (groin).

Los Angeles Chargers

• Dalvin Tomlinson (DE): out (hamstring).

• Kayode Awosika (LG): out (fibula).

• Charlie Kolar (TE): out (forearm).

• Elijah Molden (S): questionable (hamstring).

• Donte Jackson (CB): questionable (concussion).

• Derwin James Jr. (S): questionable (hamstring).

• Ladd McConkey (WR): questionable (foot), expected to play!

Los Angeles Rams

• Aaron Donald (DE): out (back).

• Jaylen Watson (CB): out (shoulder).

• Puka Nacua (WR) is back, and despite earlier reports about a snap counts, it’s now being reported that the Rams will not be holding him back today.

• Josaiah Stewart (OLB): questionable (groin).

• Colby Parkinson (TE): questionable (knee, shoulder).

Miami Dolphins

• Caleb Douglas (WR): out (ankle).

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson (WR): out (ankle).

• Brett Thorson (P): out (right hamstring).

New England Patriots

• Christian Gonzalez (CB): out (shoulder).

• Christian Barmore (DE): out (shoulder).

• Reggie Gilliam (FB): questionable (knee).

• Dre'Mont Jones (OLB): questionable (shoulder).

• Christian Elliss (LB): questionable (chest).

• Morgan Moses (RT): questionable (foot).

• Craig Woodson (S): questionable (shoulder).

New York Jets

• Dylan Parham (LG): out (knee).

• Adonai Mitchell (WR): out (finger).

• Breece Hall (RB): out (quad).

• Mason Taylor (TE): out (thumb).

• Kingsley Enagbare (OLB): questionable (knee).

Philadelphia Eagles

• DeVonta Smith (WR): out (hamstring).

• Marcus Epps (S): out (groin).

• Dallas Goedert (TE): out (knee).

• Zack Baun (LB): out (concussion).

San Francisco 49ers

• Nick Bosa (DE): out (knee, calf).

• Keion White (DE): questionable (hamstring).

• Mike Evans (WR): questionable (ribs).

• Jaden Dugger (LB): questionable (shoulder).

• Dre Greenlaw (LB): questionable (quad).

Seattle Seahawks

• Jadarian Price (RB): out (chest).

• Ty Okada (S): questionable (hamstring).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Rueben Bain Jr. (OLB): out (groin, shoulder).

• Baker Mayfield (QB): out (right thumb). Jalon Daniels starts.

• SirVocea Dennis (LB): questionable (calf, personal).

• Jacob Parrish (CB): questionable (personal).

Tennessee Titans

• Kevin Winston Jr. (S): questionable (shoulder).

Washington Commanders

• Jayden Daniels (QB): out (elbow). Marcus Mariota starts again.

• Sam Cosmi (RG): out (concussion, throat).

• Nick Cross (S): out (illness).

• Terry McLaurin (WR): questionable (hamstring).

Weather ⛈

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Wind 7 to 15 mph, gusts into the 20s.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

44 percent chance of rain during the game.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

Kinda hot: 93 F, wind 8 mph.

Situational 📆

Rest

• The Packers played Thursday night in Week 3 and come in on ten days against a Buccaneers team on normal rest.

• The Bears and Eagles played each other Monday night, so both come in on six days, while the Jets and Rams are on normal rest.

Travel

• The Colts and Commanders both fly to London for a 9:30 am ET kick at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

  • Indy flew to London after practice on Thursday

  • The Commanders left on Tuesday night, opting to get some practice in London

• The Rams and Cardinals are playing early East Coast games as West Coast teams, with LA doing it after last week at altitude in Denver.

• The Ravens and Cowboys played in Rio de Janeiro last Sunday. Now the Ravens are home against the Titans and the Cowboys make the short trip to Houston.

Back-to-back road games

• New England Patriots, at Jacksonville last week and now at Buffalo.

• New York Jets, at Detroit last week and now at Chicago.

• Arizona Cardinals, at San Francisco last week and now at the Giants.

• Los Angeles Rams, at Denver last week and now at Philadelphia.

• Tennessee Titans, at the Giants last week and now at Baltimore.

• Kansas City Chiefs, at Miami last week and now at Las Vegas.

• Los Angeles Chargers, at Buffalo last week and now at Seattle.

Quarterback changes

• Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay against Green Bay.

• Chicago is without Caleb Williams again; Tyson Bagent is expected to start for the Bears.

• Marcus Mariota starts again for Washington with Jayden Daniels out.

Sunday Bets

Lions team total over 27.5 (-122)

I’d be surprised (but not THAT surprised) if the Lions scored exactly 31 points for the fourth straight week, but man, I hate the injuries that are piling up for the Panthers. Carolina placed Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson on injured reserve, so Akayleb Evans and rookie Will Lee III are expected to start at corner. Left guard Damien Lewis is out and wide receiver Jalen Coker (quad) is questionable. Just gonna keep backing this team to have a good offense for now.

Patriots at Bills over 50 (-104)

I am on the over here even after how bad New England looked last week. The Patriots scored 6 points at Jacksonville, but when you get to play this Bills defense, it does not matter how bad you were… you should be able to move the ball and score. Buffalo gave up 31 in each of its first two games; the coverage has been legitimately horrific at times, and I dropped their run-stop number too. Either the Patriots get right and push the Bills to keep up, or they get right in garbage time, and both of those are overs.

The injury news is pleasant (for points) with most of the problems on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots are without cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore, and right tackle Morgan Moses is questionable. For Buffalo, cornerback Christian Benford is questionable, and defensive end T.J. Sanders is doubtful.

Jaguars moneyline (+130)

I have the Jaguars rated well above Cincinnati, and my fair number on this game is Jacksonville -1, so I will take them at plus money. A lot of the gap is play calling, with my love for Liam Coen growing each week. I respect what Joe Burrow can do with his arm, but Taylor drags this offense's ceiling down. I am down on the Bengals offensive line too, and the defense did not take the step forward I thought it would. My totals model does not understand either team and wants to make this one quite high, so I am staying on the side. I am also taking some Jaguars -2.5 on the alternate line (+252)

Chiefs -4.5 (-110)

My number on this game was closer to -6, so I laid the 4.5, willing to sell high on the Raiders even after seeing how impactful Bowers can be. Kansas City felt like they skated to a win over Miami with a leftover game plan they found under a pile of papers on Andy’s desk, while the Raiders had a very hard-fought win over New Orleans.

Their coverage has been excellent, and I would not be surprised if Steve Spagnuolo has a wrinkle for Brock Bowers that makes the rest of the Raiders beat them. Kansas City is in good shape. Chamarri Conner and L'Jarius Sneed both practiced in full Friday with no designation, and Josh Simmons, out at left tackle, is the only Chief with one. For Las Vegas, right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson is out, and Brock Bowers practiced Friday with no designation.

TD Scorers

In the spirit of Fannin scoring for me on Thursday, some more Tight Ends I like prices on today.

Tyler Warren (IND) +170

Mike Gesicki (CIN) +316

Isiah Likely (NYG) +285

Dawon Knox (BUF) +579

Dontavion Wicks (PHI) +284 (not a TE, but still love this price given his projected involvement today)

News & Notes

• Power ratings for week 4

• Livestream with all our takes, bets, and thoughts

• Podcast Version