Tough week with the weirdness in motivation levels. Just remember that you aren’t the only person who knows about Jacksonville’s path to winning the division and might be paying a premium in the “must-win” games.

A quick catchup, not much changed after yesterday’s results:

Teams playing for something: Dallas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Miami, and to a lesser extent, Detroit and the LA Rams.

Teams playing for nothing: San Francisco, Kansas City, LA Chargers, Cincinnati, Cleveland, NY Jets, New England, Denver, and Las Vegas.

Teams playing for nothing but also sort of trying to be a pain in the ass spoiler: Chicago, Carolina, Arizona, NY Giants, Washington, Tennessee.

Final inactive lists are out 90 minutes before game time, like always, but here’s what we know as of now:

Injuries

• Trevor Lawrence is “trending in the right direction” but has a good chance to play. It appears that the WRs situation will be Zay Jones IN and Christian Kirk OUT

• RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle are not expected to play tonight vs Buffalo

• Alvin Kamara barely practiced this week and will be a game-time decision that’s very much leaning toward OUT

• Khalil Herbert and Cole Kmet are expected to play today for the Bears

• Isiah Pacheco is likely out today for the Chiefs in a game with very few implications

• T.J. Watt is feared to have sprained or torn his MCL in yesterday’s game

Weather ❄️

• New York Jets @ New England: The forecast has not only stayed nasty, but I think it’s gotten worse. Snow during most of the game is now a near certainty with some heavy winds kicking in as well. The total is now in the 20s, possibly SNOVER incoming.

• Cleveland @ Cincinnati: Some chances of rain and wind, but it’s looking more like this one won’t be affected as much as thought.

• Tampa Bay @ Carolina: Winds 15+ gusting to 25 are possible

• Dallas @ Washington: High winds (15-20 mph) were reported, but there is some disagreement and it seems more likely that it’s more like 8-12 mph

Situational

• The Browns have the extra rest and time to prep off TNF (but also have nothing to play for)

• Same with the Jets in a meaningless game at New England. This is the second week of back-to-back road games for New York

• The Rams are also on the tail end of a two-game road stand in San Francisco but are resting players anyway

• Atlanta is on the second straight road game. At least it’s indoors this week (New Orleans) after playing in Chicago.

• For the second straight week, the Vikings defense was on the field for 70+ plays. Now facing the same Lions team that won time of possession 38-22 two weeks ago.

• Dallas is the only real indoor/warm weather team heading into a cold game. They’ll face the Commanders in Washington.

• Dallas and Detroit do have one extra day of prep, having played on Saturday night last week.

Sunday Bets

The action I have across the games today:

Green Bay/Chicago over 46

Love the Bears’ defense, just like everyone else but, it’s still a team that a good enough offensive scheme can throw on. On the other side of the ball, we have Joe Barry, the Kingmaker. Solely responsible for multiple offensive Player of the Week awards, it’s fair to say that this could/should be his swan song as DC for the Pack. Love Justin Fields’ effort as the season winds down and I think the Bears go score for score here, keeping the Packers offense from slowing things down at all.

Detroit Team Total over 24.5 -105

This Vikings defense, as valiant of an effort as it’s put up under Flores is again showing some cracks, mostly due to a lack of depth across the board. As I mentioned earlier as well, they have been on the field for over 150 plays over the past two weeks and now head to Detroit to take on the Lions for their NFC North Championship victory lap game. In the end, the Lions may not be able to move up in the playoff picture, but I wouldn’t expect Campbell to pack it in either way.

New York Giants Moneyline +195

I had circled the Giants against the spread here, but Drew talked me into taking them straight up on the Wednesday livestream. Tyrod adds a very different dynamic to this offense and if they want to get aggressive with him, there aren’t a ton of secondaries better to do it against. If the offensive line holds up, the Giants should have success. Any sort of scoreboard watching by Philly that shows Dallas having their game well in hand also lends itself to the Eagles maybe taking the foot off the gas in the 2nd half.

I’ll play half on the +4.5 and half on the moneyline today.

Denver +3

I already have a teaser from yesterday tied to this, but I’ll try to double my misery by adding some more on and back Jarrett Stidham again here. Both teams are eliminated and you could argue that interim head coach Antonio Pierce is more motivated than Sean Payton here, I still just don’t see the Raiders as a better team on a neutral. Even with Russ out, I make the Broncos slightly better and have this priced at LV -1.2 with home-field advantage. With Michael Mayer and Josh Jacobs out, I think it’s the same case as last week: why are we giving the opposing QB any sort of credit here?

Travis Etienne over 53.5 Rushing Yards -115

Tennessee has been poor against the run, and even against some bad/injured rushing attacks the past couple of weeks have given up yardage. Tank Bigsby may steal some carries again, but ETN has been more effective, and even with roughly 15 touches, I think he gets there in a game where they may have to lean on him with Trevor Lawrence dinged up.

…..

All the other games? We went over them. Time stamps in the description to help you find what you might be looking for ⬇️

Hey, Chicago

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