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Nothing crazy this week, some small moves up and down based on good QB play (Ravens) and the opposite of that (Vikings).

Some quick notes I had when looking at not just this week but the entire season of power ratings:

• Baltimore and San Francisco are much closer together than they were two weeks ago. For me, a 2.8-point gap is down to 0.9 points.

• Looking at the season as a whole, the Lions have had this invisible ceiling they continue to hit their heads on. My highest rating for them was leading into week seven, they’ve just bounced around right below that for the past three months.

• Tyrod Taylor is a definite upgrade for New York, not great timing for Philly

• I don’t think it’s sustainable at the current levels, but somehow Mason Rudolph was the best QB on the Steelers roster

• They may get into the playoffs and maybe even upset someone, but I’m more excited about the prospects for Green Bay next year

• The Vikings are probably resting players as the 6th seed this week if Cousins never gets hurt

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Playoff Projections

Another simulation run after my updates.

Pretty close to market on most. The one I’m furthest off is the Pittsburgh price. Currently +130 to make it, I have that well above +200.

My most likely playoff scenario with look ahead pricing

AFC

#2 Buffalo vs #7 Indianapolis +10.5

#3 Kansas City vs #6 Miami pk

#4 Jacksonville vs #5 Cleveland pk

NFC

#2 Dallas vs #7 Los Angeles +7

#3 Detroit vs # 6 Green Bay +5.5

#4 Tampa Bay vs #5 Philadelphia -3

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

16 games, with only a few not mattering. Should be a fun one tonight as we try to decipher all the motivations and whatnot that goes into the final week of the season. Also available, as always, in podcast form tomorrow morning.

Week 18 Weather⛅

An early look at the games worth monitoring heading into this weekend:

Saturday: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore: Looks like rain, most sites have over a 90% chance of precipitation for the game and a decent chance for meaningful wind speeds

NY Jets @ New England: Currently a high chance of snow for this Sunday afternoon game. Temps will be right around freezing, so it could be a gross wintery mix.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants: Depending where you look, 25-45% chance of some rain or snow.

Buffalo @ Miami: Good chance of rain in South Florida as of right now, could even see some thunderstorms.