Detroit vs Minnesota

Let’s not beat around the bush. This isn’t just the crown jewel of the week; it’s the best final-week game we’ve had in a while, considering the stakes.

Discussing it on the podcast on Thursday, Drew and I were on opposite sides (as we were for last week’s Vikings game as well) for a handful of reasons. He pointed out that Flores has had trouble scheming against Goff and Ben Johnson (now 0-3, giving up at least 30 each time, but to be fair, Nick Mullens started two of those). This is true, but I was also highly impressed with the pressure and coverage looks he threw at the Packers last week in that rematch from earlier in the season. I respect LaFleur plenty as well, and he was definitely losing the battle for a larger portion of the game.

If he can find a few wrinkles tonight, even for a half of football, I think Minnesota may have a week off to start the playoffs. Also, since it fits my narrative, I want to just throw out last year’s games as evidence as well. That defense wasn’t any good at all against anyone, not just the Lions. It took Brian Flores time and some savvy free agent signing to get this team to where it’s at.

The Vikings owners bought $2M worth of tickets for this game

The other big difference between this game and the first matchup is the overall health of the Lions’ defense after losing a half dozen starters over the course of the season. This total is 56.5 for a reason.

We could end up just seeing a repeat of the Bills-Lions game from week 15. I think if you want to play this over, it won’t hurt to find a couple of alternate overs for smaller stakes as well. The Vikings’ offense seems to slow down a bit with a lead, but if this is back and forth, they should be able to go punch for punch with Jefferson and Addison, who seem extremely tough to cover right now.

I love this Lions team. I love Dan Campbell, but at my current pricing and how I think this plays out can’t support them as a favorite of damn near 3 points here. Again, from the podcast, Drew pointed out that the future odds were a little wonky, considering how closely this game was lined and how much leverage the winner would have.

I’ll be taking some Vikings straight up and putting some money on their NFC title price.

Vikings Moneyline +135
Vikings to win the NFC +390

Should I Bet on Incentives?

Probably not on Sunday morning, two hours before kick-off, considering that every single algo-feeding fantasy-turned-betting content guy has four threads, three videos, and two articles about the same ten incentives. Some of these lines are well past ripe.

Another issue is the actual prices/lines on these.

Example: Mike Evans needs five receptions and 85 yards to get a fairly large incentive. The team is playing to win today. The opponent is extremely thin, and we’ve even had quotes from his QB saying he’d like to get it done. It feels like if this game is well in hand late and he hasn’t gotten to these thresholds yet, they will just force-feed him.

The problem is that his catch prop is 6.5, and his yardage is 94.5. Let’s pop back to that same scenario where the team is ACTIVELY trying to get him his money. If he makes a fifth catch and his yardage total lands above 85 but below this week’s total of 94.5, there’s a chance that the bets will still lose. Tampa Bay, with a big lead, may look ahead to next week’s Wild Card game and start to pull starters.

Even in this dream scenario, things can easily go awry. (For the record, I think Evans may crush both his totals in the first half against this Saints defense, but I still wanted to go over this one for illustrative purposes.)

So, as always, I’m not going to tell you what you can or can’t bet on, but just a word of caution on spraying a bunch of these blindly. In the long term, it’s going to almost certainly be a net loser.

You may have better luck combining some correlated props or even shopping at some of the pick’em sites as well.

Week 18 Games

Sunday Night Football is the only game where both teams are incentivized to win, but of the other 13 games, only five are just two teams going through the motions. Plenty of games today where one of the teams is absolutely going to be trying.

• New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - The Bucs can claim the NFC South with a win today.

• Chicago @ Green Bay - Packers need a win and Washington loss to get the six-seed

• Carolina @ Atlanta - the Falcons can still win the division with a win + Tampa loss.

• Washington @ Dallas - Commandos get the six seed with a win OR a Green Bay loss.

• KC @ Denver - the Broncos clinch a spot with a win (if the Chiefs ever get to Denver)

• LA Chargers @ Las Vegas - the Chargers can steal the fifth seed with a win now that Pittsburgh lost

• Seattle @ LA Rams - the Rams can lock up the 3rd seed with a win (although it doesn’t appear that they care)

• Miami @ NY Jets - Miami can sneak into the playoffs with a win + Denver loss

The Rest

If you’re betting on these, you’d better have a solid angle or some wild inside info:

Buffalo @ New England (+3.5/36)

• Honestly, Josh Allen may only play one snap. He’s looking to extend his starting streak, but the Bills are resting and prepping for the playoffs.

• Reason to Watch: Will New England actively tank? There are rumblings that Drake Maye could be lifted or possibly even a surprise late scratch as the team has a shot to secure the #1 overall draft pick for next year.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-3/45)

• Doug Pederson is most likely fired after this, right? (hearing rumors of Ben Johnson wanting to land here and help pick a new GM).

• Reason to Watch: This might be the last time we see Joe Flacco play a game.

Houston @ Tennessee (-1.5/36)

• It sounds like Houston doesn’t want to play any starters for very long, but it feels like they have to get CJ Stroud a couple of good series in in order to get right ahead of a home playoff game next week. Tennesee will be playing both QBs

• Reason to Watch: I cannot, for the life of me, think of a reason to watch another Titans game. Plus, this is looking like the one game that may have bad weather today. Rain is in the forecast for Nashville.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-2/37)

• No Jalen, no Saquon, no fun. I really wish Philly were in the hunt for something important just to see Barkley go for 200 yards against his old team, but such is life.

• Reason to Watch: Maybe you’re related to Tanner McKee?

San Francisco @ Arizona (-5/43)

• The 49ers will be starting Josh Dobbs in this one with Brock Purdy out. A bevy of other starters are also shut down with the season lost.

• Reason to Watch: Josh Dobbs revenge game???

On Tap this Week:

I took a little bit of a breather this week with this “less than” slate on deck, but I will be back to full steam ahead tomorrow, looking back at the 2024 regular season and ahead to SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND.

• Monday: 2024 Awards Predictions

• Wednesday: Power Ratings, Playoff Team Edition

• Thursday: First 2025 NFL Mock Draft

• Friday: Prop Market Deep Dive

• Saturday-Monday: Betting on Wild Card Weekend