The week 18 markest are obviously weird, but for the most part, they do seem to find their way to a price that’s close to fair, just like the rest of the season. I’ll have a lot more to say once we get some practice reports tomorrow afternoon and maybe some quotes from a few of the teams that are seemingly on the fence.

Schedule

I understand that certain games need to be played in a certain order to make sure that we get as many meaningful games as possible. That sometimes means we don’t get the best game at the time we want and we all get to bellyache on Twitter about it. This year, I don’t think I can complain.

Having a true playoff for the division title game to close things out is awesome. A loss would drop Miami from the 2nd seed to 6th and a win could mean Buffalo possibly not even being in the playoffs at all. The stakes are ridiculously high, so I’m hoping for something memorable to close the season with.

Adjustments

Just a bit of an explainer on how much different this stupid week is and how incredibly priced-in the rest and situational stuff is already.

This isn’t advice to bet on these teams based on the numbers, just an attempt to show you how big of an adjustment has already been made in the market for some of the games where one or more teams have little to nothing to play for.

These are my prices IF EVERYONE WERE PLAYING and both teams were motivated to win like a normal week. Just for illustrative purposes.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

My Price: Baltimore -11.3

Actual Price: Pittsburgh -3.5

Pretty big adjustment here, especially for a road team but with Pittsburgh playing for their season and Baltimore clearly resting most, if not all key players, I guess a two-TD move isn’t all that wild

I had said that these weren’t going to be reasons to bet on the resting teams, but I’ll still likely be looking at Baltimore getting points if it’s indeed Tyler Huntley starting at QB

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

My Price: Cleveland -0.7

Actual Price: Cincinnati -5

Cleveland is locked into the five seed no matter what and looks to likely start PJ Walker at QB and rest other key players against a Cincy team that was also eliminated last week.

Interesting one for sure with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins fighting injuries. I’m not sure I’d put them out on the field (or in Higgins's case, I’m not sure if I risk it in the game before I become a free agent)

Kansas City @ LA Chargers

My Price: Kansas City -7.1

Actual Price: Los Angeles -2

Nothing at all to play for and no bye to keep you from wondering “Is three weeks of rest TOO much?”. KC should be resting, but a guy still has to wonder if Easton Stick and what’s left of this team are better than KC’s backups.

Minnesota @ Detroit

My Price: Detroit -5.8

Actual Price: Detroit -3

Detroit mathematically has something to play for, but would need Dallas and Philadelphia to lose as road favorites in order for a win to help them into the second seed. Both NFC East games are in the late window, so we’ll find out how Dan Campbell feels about his chances early on Sunday. He’s a tough nut to crack, I wish we had some example of him making an incredibly risky decision or something.

Minnesota needs more help than almost anyone, but again, with the early game and all of the other needed results fairly feasible, should be in do-or-die mode (just need to name a QB).

LA Rams @ San Francisco

My Price: San Francisco -9.7

Actual Price: San Francisco -3.5

This is the only one that weirds me out a bit. Both teams may end up just resting players. The 49ers are locked into the 1st round bye but Shanahan didn’t sound really keen on resting everyone in his presser the other day. CMC has been ruled out already, but the rest sounds like it’s more up in the air than maybe we expected.

The Rams can be knocked down to the seventh seed if they lose and the Packers win (both games are played at the same time), so it’s unclear if they’ll be playing to win with a full complement of starters. Puka Nacua could likely benefit from a week off.

It could mean the difference between heading to Detroit rather than Dallas next week.

……

As for the rest of the games, ratings start to mean a little less this time of year but just to put it out there for now (I have to finish updates for the week and these will change slightly yet). My current pricing for the games where both teams should be trying:

• Indianapolis -1.6 vs Houston

• Buffalo -1.2 at Miami

• New Orleans -3.3 vs Atlanta

I’m probably short on Buffalo due to injury stuff on both sides and despite a bit of value appearing on the Colts, I think I’d be more interested in an over 47 than anything.

Injury Updates

• Trevor Lawrence is day-to-day and will likely be listed as questionable all week with his shoulder injury. Zay Jones may start to work into practice this week as well. We’ll find out a lot more today.

• Sounding like Alvin Kamara won’t be playing after injuring his ankle

• Green Bay WR Jayden Reed got good news on his chest injury after X-rays came back negative.

• AJ Dillon seems likely to play after being yanked from last week’s game with a stinger

• Christian McCaffrey is officially ruled out with his calf injury. He’ll have three weeks to nurse it.

• KWIII re-aggravated his shoulder against the Steelers

• Tee Higgins re-injured his hamstring against KC but did go back into the game.

• DeVonta Smith had some good news after being seen in a boot and with crutches after the game. The team is now calling it a mild ankle sprain

• Will Levis got a ride to the locker room with a foot injury Unsure of his status

• The Texans have a few injuries to keep an eye on this week ahead of their elimination game vs the Colts

Football Still Rules

Variety released their list of the top 100 watched TV Broadcasts of 2023.

• 56 spots were sporting events

• 45 of those, including 14 of the top 15 overall spots were NFL Football.

• A ton of people are apparently watching CBS’s Blue Bloods and NCIS

• More people will tune in for a Philadelphia vs. Minnesota TNF that’s only available on Prime Video than the Grammys

You can check out the whole list here, but the top isn’t terribly surprising.