I peeked ahead to see what the situation was for next week’s schedule since every game says TBD for the time. From NFL.com:

“In Week 18, two games will be played on Saturday (4:30 PM ET and 8:15 PM ET) with the remainder to be played on Sunday afternoon (1:00 PM ET and 4:25 PM ET) and one matchup to be played on Sunday night (8:20 PM ET). Specific dates, start times, and networks for Week 18 matchups will be determined and announced following the conclusion of Week 17”

Good news for fans of stand-alone games, bad news for a guy who can’t pick a winner on a Saturday to save his life (not complaining as long as Thursdays and Sundays stay strong)

Anything I could furiously type up this morning:

Injury Updates

• Puka Nacua is expected to play through his hip injury

• Alvin Kamara will be active for the Saints

• Raheem Mostert is very likely OUT for the Dolphins today

• Kyler Murray is expected to play through his illness

• DK Metcalf is good to go. Also, while the team “has concerns” about his shoulder, but Kenneth Walker III is expected to play for Seattle today

• For the Broncos: Jerry Jeudy is playing but Marvin Mims is not expected to

• CEH and Pacheco are both projected as in for the Chiefs

• TE Cole Kmet is a game-time decision for the Bears

• Ja’Marr Chase is likely to play today for the Bengals

• Jordan Addison will suit up versus the Packers tonight

Weather

• Atlanta at Chicago - looking like snow, but not really a “snow game”. There should be minimal accumulation with winds around 10 mph. Just a gross day out more than anything.

• New England @ Buffalo - Not much wind but a good chance of rain and snow. May be similar to Chicago where the weather isn’t impactful outside of it just being a miserable day out.

• Pittsburgh at Seattle - Most of the rain chances from earlier in the week have fallen off. Should be dry

Situational Stuff

• The Bills have the extra day of rest coming off their Saturday win, hosting a Patriots team that’s playing their second straight road game.

• Las Vegas is on the second straight week of traveling and on a short week having played Monday in KC. Additionally, they’ll be playing in the early window as a West Coast team.

• The Rams have extra rest coming off Thursday Night Football and get a Giants team coming off a Monday game. Rest advantage is tempered a little by the West Coast team playing at 10 am local/dome team playing outdoors.

• The Cardinals are on back-to-back road games, but at least get Philly on a short week (played on Christmas Monday).

• New Orleans has extra rest heading to Tampa having played TNF

• San Francisco has a short week coming off a Monday game but will play a Washington defense that was on the field for 85 plays last week.

• Baltimore is on a short week off the Monday game as well, hosting Miami.

• The Steelers and Chargers have the extra day of rest on their opponents coming off Saturday games.

• Cincinnati is coming off a Saturday game and facing KC (who played on Monday) for a 2-day net rest advantage

Sunday Bets

Indy -4

I liked this a whole lot better at -3 earlier in the week, but still see this as a nice spot for the Indianapolis team. I think the situational stuff the Raiders are facing (b2b road games, short week) is exacerbated by having an interim head coach. Their defense has been great over the past month, especially against the run, but the offense is on a massive downward trend.

Rams/Giants over 43.5

Another one I played earlier in the week but still like at the current price. Tyrod is a decent-sized upgrade for the offense at home. I don’t have either defense rated above league average and obviously have been taken by the jump in the Rams’ offense over the past month and change.

D’Andre Swift over 69.5 Rushing Yards -110

We’ll get some Kenny G in there as well and of course, some Hurts’ runs but, Swift should be in line for 17-21 carries here against a bottom-five run defense. If the game tilts to its most likely state, a Philly lead, we could see even more running in the 2nd half as the Eagles try to return to their 2022 form and salt away the game with long drives on the ground.

Green Bay Moneyline +105

Not taking the points, just betting them straight up in what is essentially an elimination game that will feature a first time starter on the other side. I get that the Packers will be thin in the defensive secondary, but the Vikings will also be without their start tight end and don’t have much of a run game to speak of currently. I expect some regression from the Minnesota defense; if Mekhi Blackmon is out tonight, the Vikings will also be down two cornerbacks. I think this total may see some action back up to the over as we get closer to game time.

6-Point Teaser: New Orleans +8.5/Atlanta +8.5

Two NFC South teams I detest right now, on the road as short dogs. Just riding the math here. The totals aren’t terribly high, both offenses have looked decent recently and again… just riding the math here and assuming we can get a couple of close games.

Need thoughts on any of the other games? We went though all 16 on Wednesday on the show. Time stamps in the description so you can bounce right to the game you want:

Last one of 2023 (the year, not the season)

Reed Blankenship (PHI) Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists +124

Looking Ahead

There could be another dozen teams added to the heap with nothing to play for next week, but as always we have to get through today first.

With no Monday game, it’ll be a lot quicker to sort out the who, where, and what of it all but out of all the games, the Ravens/Dolphins game seems to be the one with the biggest impact.

Apologies for this rambling stream-of-consciousness mess. I’m sure I missed some stuff and will be updating my notes throughout the day, check out NFLPlayoffScenarios.com for a way cleaner explanation of everything.

• If Baltimore wins, they lock up the top seed and would have nothing to play for next week hosting Pittsburgh. Additionally, Cleveland would lock up the 5th seed as they would win conference record tiebreakers over Buffalo or Miami if there were a tie at 11-6. (Good news for the Steelers and Bengals if they stave off elimination today!) The Bengals could be eliminated if they lose and the Bills and Steelers win though.

• In the above scenario, Miami would still be fighting for the division crown (assuming the Bills win) as well as maintaining the 2nd overall seed (assuming the Chiefs win).

• Although unlikely, a Jags win, coupled with Houston and Indy losses would give the Jaguars the AFC South crown. The Colts would still be alive for a wildcard, but both AFC South matchups next week could be weird with Jacksonville playing for nothing (since a KC win today would lock them out of a chance to move up to the third seed). The Indy loss would also keep Houston from being eliminated, meaning their week 18 head-to-head may be a play-in game (possibly needing help for the winner as well).

• A Kansas City win would almost certainly lock up the third seed and leave the Chiefs with nothing to play for next week. All that needs to happen to lock them into that spot outside of a win is the Dolphins OR Bills to win as well.

• Tampa Bay would lock up the NFC South and the fourth seed with a win today, leaving a road game against Carolina next week as meaningless (to the chagrin of the Chicago Bears).

Games that should matter next week:

• MIN @ DET: Lions could still be fighting for seeding, Vikings for a wildcard

• CHI@ GB: The Packers likely still looking for a wildcard

• JAX @ TEN: The Jags could sew it all up today, but they would need a lot to go right

• HOU @ IND: Could be for the division if the Jags lose today

• BUF @ MIA: Hopefully a winner-takes-all AFC East battle for the 2nd seed

• PHI @ NYG: Philly will still be fighting for the top seed while also fighting off the Cowboys for the division

• SEA @ ARI: Seattle can only clinch today if the GB/MIN game ends in a tie, so they’ll likely have a super high probability to get in next week but not be “locked”

• DAL @ WAS: the win over the Lions keeps them in the mix for everything

• LAR @ SF: The Niners would still be fighting for the top seed most likely and the Rams would only have secured a spot today with a win PLUS a Seahawks loss.

Already Eliminated

New England, LA Chargers, Tennessee, NY Jets, Carolina, Arizona, Washington, NY Giants

Out with a Loss Today

New Orleans, Chicago, Las Vegas, Denver

Out with a Loss + Help

Minnesota, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Houston, Cincinnati, Atlanta

Nice to see some getting an early start on the late-season player incentive betting train:

One Last Thing, do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.