📈Week 17 Power Ratings Updates & NFL Tiers

Baltimore won and did so in all phases of the game. But, it’s just one game and while I certainly wouldn’t make the line -6 again if they met up this week, the 49ers would still be a favorite on a neutral at least -3.5 at home.

The only heavy adjustment of the week is me putting Houston back where they should be IF AND WHEN C.J. Stroud is announced back. Some moves to be made in a couple of other spots as well if the QB situations change or revert.

• Two-point upgrade for Brissett starting over Howell for WAS, the total is already high but I think he invites some over money as well

• I downgraded Tannehill, but it’s still a two-point move back down for a return to Levis if that’s the case

• Tyrod getting the start is a bump for the Giants, still sorting out how much (more than one point, less than three). I played this over on the news.

• The Minnesota QB situation is murky and may not matter if Addison, Hockenson, and O’Neill all miss the game anyway.

• I will hold off on any Jacksonville adjustments and just assume Trevor Lawrence could lose a limb and still call his own number after a successful pre-game workout.

A couple of teams got slight bumps for nice offensive performances. I think I give them more credit for it this late in the season since it’s almost certainly game plan/an offense settling in.

• Cleveland - Flacco has been good, but this past week he dialed back the negative plays

• Pittsburgh - I don’t think Mason Rudolph suddenly gets it, but the team put up one of the better offensive performances last week from an EPA/play standpoint

• Baltimore - didn’t overly rely on Lamar’s legs, until they needed to. Capitilized on the turnovers in a tough road game. Great defensive game plan.

• Atlanta - Over 50% success rate on offense with Heinicke.

In the same vein, a few teams had slight adjustments down based on some offensive duds:

• Kansas City - had a negative EPA/play on dropbacks. Concerning.

• Cincinnati - Browning’s decision-making got them in trouble

• Indianapolis - 35% success rate, even worse on the ground.

My playoff Probabilities

I’m pretty close to being on-market for most of the NFC prices except for Seattle. I’m digging in a bit since I don’t show value on the next four teams to make the playoffs at their current prices. I think it may just be a “sum of the parts” thing since GB/MIN and ATL/NO play each other yet this year, and barring a tie, we’ll see two teams win to keep pace in those. Not betting the “No” price since I’m already involved.

In the AFC, I show a little value on Pittsburgh to sneak in, but some of that would rely on Baltimore resting starters next week and I’m not going to get cute with it.

Also a tiny bit of a look to Jacksonville to miss the playoffs at +270, but again, who knows who will start at QB for Tennessee in week 18? I think just taking Carolina straight up this week at around +225 might be a better fade if you’re out on the Jags.

Talked about the MVP yesterday, but wanted to touch base on the rest:

Coach of the Year is Probably Down to Two

Just not the two I thought it’d be months ago.

Stefanski just has to get past a tough defense on a short week and a tricky road spot next week and could have 12 wins after losing his starting QB and star RB for the year.

Fanduel has Stefanski as a favorite, DraftKings has Dan Campbell. If both were to falter and Miami wins out and takes the top seed in the AFC I suppose McDaniel still has a case.

A Lions upset over another double-digit win team on primetime would be massive and seeing how they would be nearly a touchdown favorite next week hosting Minnesota, could mean a 13-win season, which would be a record for the 93-year-old franchise.

DPOY

Another close race with Parsons favored at some places and Garrett favored at others. Both men sit around even money with T.J. Watt lurking at 5/1. As I mentioned last week, both have a chance to really put a cherry on top of their season with prime-time, stand-alone games this week against the Jets and Lions on Thursday and Saturday.

OPOY

I think the “CMC MVP” discourse has spilled over into this market. Now -200 at DraftKings and -240 at FanDuel for offensive player of the year. Tyreek's missing action opened the door, but the stats are eye-popping as well, especially on a team with a lot of mouths to feed.

1,900 total yards and 21 TDs with two games left.

Rookies are still done

Stroud’s price is down to as low as -1000 and Puka for sure deserves every single 2nd-place vote in my opinion. His return to action this week will likely push it back out.

Jalen Carter’s odds are now in “probably a lock” territory as well with his main challengers, Will Anderson and Devon Witherspoon, missing games due to injuries.

Flacco is down to 4/1 for CBPOY!

As low as +300 at FanDuel! You wonder if the voters are considering Joe after an entire fall of assuming this was an easy vote that required little thought. It’s a hell of a story if he comes in cold and finishes 5-1 as a starter to lock up the top wildcard spot in a tough division.

My Predictions with two weeks to go:

• MVP: Lamar

• Coach: Campbell

• OPOY: CMC

• DPOY: Garrett

• OROY: Stroud

• DROY: Carter

• CBPOY: Flacco👀 

What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?

• TNF Best Bets

• First TD Scorer Darts

• Injuries that Matter

• Weather Concerns for the Weekend Ahead

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