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Merry Christmas Eve! I’m not half-assing the handicapping or injury tracking, but I am going to mail it in on writing this week because I’d like to spend some time with my family today. We’re going to go sledding, and then to the movies. It sounds very nice.

That said, it’s a messssssy week. Lots of QB injuries and demotions, teams that clearly aren't trying, and more injuries and shutdowns. I’ve had a nice year and won’t be pushing the envelope these last two weeks with lots of bets, but I'll still be attacking angles that present themselves.

Thoughts, Christmas Style

• My Dallas number is too high; I’m going to work on that tomorrow.

• In a strange turn of events, Bo Nix has been playing much better, but somehow the defense is starting to regress a little, as if he’s stolen life force from them.

• The Rams’ defense continues to be very beatable in the secondary. Adams missing more times sucks, but this is still an elite team that’ll be a tough out in the playoffs

• Josh Allen’s foot injury seems worse than I first thought, and I’m downgrading that offense a bit.

• Everyone is focused on how well Trevor Lawrence is playing, but I’ve actually upgraded the Jags defense quite a bit as well. Just peaking at the perfect time.

• DK Metcalf isn’t a huge adjustment, but he certainly matters enough to warrant a downgrade to the offense in Pittsburgh

• My numbers for the GB/BAL game are going to assume Willis and Huntley at QB for now. No bet from me at this time, and we’ll just wait for more news.

• I bet on Carolina last week; they won. It’s been a fun ride, and they might win the division. I still haven’t upgraded their number; it’s fine where it is.

• The Max Brosmer hype continues around these parts for reasons unknown. I’m expecting a 5th percentile performance again.

• While Shadeur Sanders isn’t good, he has some flashes and a stronger arm than Gabriel. I don’t think his pinky injury keeps him out this week, but it’s worth monitoring.

• Josh Johnson is pretty bad. It’s two eliminated teams, but one has a damn good QB, and the other does not.

• Same thing I just said, but for Chris Oladokun, and they are playing a team fighting for the #1 seed

• Same thing I just said again, but for Brady Cook

• Jaxson Dart is a million miles away from being healthy, but the team is also incentivized to lose right now

• The Raiders’ number is already pretty low, but the Bowers news is likely worth an extra bump down if you want

Week 17 Podcast and Betting Preview

We did this on Monday to facilitate travel and time off, so we’ll be a little behind on injury news and whatnot, but there’s still some strong takes in here on all 16 games.