There are still some complicated scenarios for the playoffs, but I do love a good flowchart. (Denver should have gone for two at the end of regulation.)

Offer Ends Monday!

Injuries 🤕

• TEN - RB Tony Pollard has been ruled out. OT Dillon Radunz remains out.

• JAX - OT Walker Little, S Darnell Savage, and LB Ventrell Miller are all out.

• GB - CB Jaire Alexander, S Evan Williams, and LB Quay Walker are out. WR Christian Watson is unlikely to play

• MIN - LB Ivan Pace Jr was activated off the IR and will play Sunday.

• CAR - RB Chuba Hubbard has been put on the IR. Josey Jewell and Jaycee Horn are out for the defense.

• TB - S Antoine Winfield, WR Sterling Shepard, and TE Cade Otton are out

• LV - G Jordan Meredith is out.

• NO - WR Chris Olave is out. C Erik McCoy and G Lucas Patrick have been placed on the IR. Alvin Kamara and Derek Carr remain out as well. Spencer Rattler will get the nod at QB again.

• NYJ - WR Davante Adams is expected to play.

• BUF - QB Josh Allen has shoulder and elbow injuries but will not miss action.

• IND - QB Anthony Richardson has been ruled out; Joe Flacco is your starter.

• NYG - WR Malik Nabers is expected to play

• MIA - QB Tua Tagovailoa is listed as doubtful with a hip injury. Tyler Huntley will go if he’s unable to. WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both questionable. CB Kendall Fuller is out.

• CLE - TE David Njoku and WR Cedric Tillman remain out.

• DAL - WR CeeDee Lamb has been shut down for the rest of the season.

• PHI - QB Jalen Hurts is out. Kenny Pickett will start in his place

• ATL - WR Drake London has no game designation, he’s good to go.

• WAS - DT Jonathan Allen has been activated and will play. CB Marshon Lattimore is out again with a hamstring injury.

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Weather ⛈

• IND@NYG - should see some rain, but the winds appear to be reasonable for the Meadowlands.

• TEN@JAX - Heavy rains are possible, with wind gusts in the 30s. This may be a pretty gross game, and the weather isn’t looking good either.

• NYJ@BUF - Should be rainy with some winds in the 15mph+ range

• CAR@TB - good chance of rain in this one, but not too bad in the wind department.

• DAL@PHI - good chances of rain.

• MIA@CLE - VERY strong winds here. Sustained 20mph+ with gusts pushing 40. Small chance of some rain as well.

• ATL@WAS - It’s going to rain. Winds are borderline, but could be in that 15+ mph range with stronger gusts.

Situational 📆

• Tennessee is on a back-to-back travel spot in a matchup of eliminated teams with backup QBs

• Green Bay has a short week after “playing” Monday night

• New Orleans is on a short week after playing Monday

• Detroit is on the 2nd straight week of travel (Monday night)

• The Raiders had some issues with travel this week

Sunday Bets

With all apologies, I don’t have a ton this week. Look at these QB matchups:

Mason Rudolph vs Mac Jones
Kenny Pickett vs Cooper Rush
Tyler Huntley vs DTR
Joe Flacco vs Drew Lock
Aidan O'Connell vs Spencer Rattler

How am I supposed to bet on these damn games?

So, just some quick thoughts on the week

• Tennesee @ Jacksonville (pk/38.5) - Both defenses have taken massive steps back, but can you trust these offenses enough to score enough even with this minuscule total?

• Green Bay @ Minnesota (-1/49) - Only good game today and the line is damn near perfect. Both offenses should have plenty of success, side and total likely come down to who blinks (makes a horrible mistake) first.

• Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-9.5/48) - could only bet Carolina at this price, but their defense getting even thinner has me worried about a motivated Tampa team scoring at will.

• Las Vegas @ New Orleans (+2/37) - Interim vs Lame Duck. Hard lean to the Raiders, considering how ransacked this Saints roster is.

• NY Jets @ Buffalo (-10/45.5) - another one where I could only bet the dog and came very close to doing so. The Bills’ defense has been abhorrent and even if they get some guys back in the defensive backfield likely give up 20+ here.

• Indianapolis @ NY Giants (+7.5/40.5) - I think if you like the Giants, you like the over, but… the Colts were rewarded last time out with their run-first offense and will probably go back to the well with Flacco in.

• Miami @ Cleveland (+3/33.5) - preseason-looking total here, but with the bad weather forecasted and two very below-average QBs, I’m not sure I can even put forth an opinion here.

• Dallas @ Philadelphia (-7.5/38) - Can you lay this many points with Kenny Pickett? Maybe when you have Saquon Barkley up against a bottom-five run defense. With Minnesota and Detroit playing at later times and dates, the game is still one you’d want to win to stay in the race for the top seed.

• Atlanta @ Washington (-3.5/46.5) - Second look at Michael Penix, but again versus a lower-tier defense. Keep an eye on this if the Panthers are close to pulling the upset. A Tampa loss would lock the Commanders into a playoff spot (Atlanta would still have something to play for)

ALL CLINCHING SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17

I’m certainly not going into the afternoon with ZERO action, especially after a decent Saturday. A couple of smaller bets for the week 17 slate (I WILL have a side and a couple of props for MNF)

Teaser: Colts -1.5/Eagles -1.5

Both teams have something to play for despite having the backup QBs in, and both teams can just lean on a star running back and grind the game out against a team they should be able to manhandle.

Bucky Irving over 83.5 rushing yards -120

Hopefully they just use their best players right away in this one. Irving has a solid matchup against a bad defense that keeps adding more injuries.

Lastly, for quick thoughts from Drew and me on all of the week 17 games:

Tweet I’m Proud Of

Congrats, Trey McBride. Sorry that the game had to end with a ball rocketed off your head for a game-ending pick, but way to break the long drought!