Flacco is still very fun, and despite the mistakes, he’s doing enough to get the offense to a high enough level to win games. Elijah Moore and Amari Cooper’s health is a bit worrisome, but the final game of the year is against an atrocious Bengals defense. (there is a chance next week is meaningless for the Browns, I’ll expound on that tomorrow).

Njoku is a beast, the running back tandem is nice and if they can just play at a middling level, this defense is good enough to keep games close. Not just a frisky team anymore, they’re probably a real contender to pull some upsets in January.

I was a bit puzzled by the Jets in comeback mode. Multiple times passing on reasonable 4th downs and punting on the other side of the 50 despite being down three scores. I get that there’s nothing to play for really, but it’s got to be sort of embarrassing to be freed of the shackles of the worry of failure and to still take the safe road every time. It’s been a bit of an adventure at the QB spot for sure, but I’m not sure the “vote of confidence” in Saleh and Hackett was a great idea.

✅Njoku over 49.5 yards: hilariously easy

✅Njoku over 5.5 receptions: kept me watching until the 4th

❌First TD Scorers: The wrong RB scored first.

Friday Injury Reports

Was going to make my own list, but I lean on a few people to make sure I’m on top of everything and Betz has it covered here:

Commanders QB Switcheroo

I did want to lay out a quick conspiracy theory and see if it has some legs regarding the Washington Commanders.

I saw several folks shake their heads at the idea of starting Brissett over Howell at this point. He’s a better QB and would likely give them a better chance to win, but for a team sitting at 4-11 with a coach on the way out, why would they? Plus you lose two games worth of Sam Howell evaluation heading into next year.

I really think Ron Rivera is doing Eric Bienemy a solid here, maybe even at EB’s request. Finally out of the shadow of Andy Reid, he sees his opportunity to get some head coaching interviews for one of the many openings this year. While they likely won’t beat the Niners or Cowboys, he can showcase his offensive scheme much better with a viable QB on the field. Just look at what Scary Terry is doing after Howell hits the pine!

Maybe I’ve overthought it and the whole brain trust is just fumbling around, but why would Rivera care about the draft position or the long-term evaluation of Howell? He’s on his way out.

Feel free to yell at me if I’m way off base.

Shoutout to Connor first off. He’s on vacation in Mexico and STILL sent me a prop to feature in the newsletter today. Sure, it took longer than usual but it’s the holidays.

Jared Goff under 253.5 passing yards -115

Follow Connor on Twitter for more NFL betting content!

More props for free on the YouTube channel this afternoon, check it out while you’re checking out of work for the afternoon:

Last season, teasers had a nice run at the end of the year, leading us to wonder out loud “Are they better later in the season when lines are supposedly at their most efficient?”

I dug in on this a little and found very little data to support that theory no matter how I split the season up. I think, like anything else (“omg, unders were 13-1 this week!”), these things go in cycles and randomness rules the world.

Last week was a bad one for the math-teasers for sure. Even the Bills got bit by the dead-cat new coach bounce in LA (I tried to draw fire).

I don’t hate going back to the well on some of those “secondary teasers” like Philadelphia -12 or San Francisco -12.5 again, because there isn’t much else this week.

Slim pickings might be a good thing for me. Winning weeks despite the teasers losing every Sunday (I am sitting on a CLE/GB one from yesterday).

Week 17 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)