Second week in a row that I come in off a nice winning Thursday and just get slapped in the face by Saturday ball.

I’m a pragmatic man and understand that it’s hard to win betting on the NFL, but this is going to give me a complex. I can feel myself already overthinking next Saturday’s game (thank God it’s just the one!) But, no one wants to hear me complain, let’s just move on to the Sunday slate. Best of luck balancing football and family today, I’ve scheduled a half hour to open gifts between the end of the late games and the start of SNF. Pray for me if we get overtime in Dallas/Miami.

Weather⛈

Any chances of impactful weather are lessening and it shouldn’t really be a factor today.

• The wind is lighter than originally forecast in Dallas @ Miami

• The snow for the New England @ Denver should be done by game time and will be cleaned up

• Still a chance of the LV @ KC game being rainy, but that’s tomorrow.

Injuries🤕

Trevor’s Playing. Zay Jones is likely out for the Jags though.

• Will Levis is “unlikely to start” today, Ryan Tannehill should be making his return.

• Alexander Mattison will play for Minnesota, but it’s likely Ty Chandler still sees action as Mattison isn’t 100%

• Houston: Nico Collins is expected to play today

• Tyreek Hill is not officially in but the Dolphins are “optimistic”

• KWIII will be in the backfield today for the Seahawks, on the other side of the ball it’s looking like Devon Witherspoon will miss the game.

• Indy: Michael Pittman did not clear concussion protocol and is out, Jonathan Taylor will play. Zach Moss remains out.

• Cardinals WRs Hollywood Brown and Greg Dortch head into the Bears matchup as questionable.

• The Cowboys will be without their LT Tyron Smith today vs Miami

• JuJu Smith-Schuster, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Hunter Henry are out tonight for the Pats

• Cole Kmet is expected to play today for Chicago

• WR Christian Watson is listed as doubtful and looks like he’ll miss another game with his hamstring injury

• OBJ and Zay Flowers were both full participants in Friday’s practice, so Lamar likely has his full WR corps healthy

Situational✈

• Seattle is not only on the short week coming off MNF, but is traveling for the 3rd time in 4 weeks

• Baltimore is on a back-to-back road game in SF after visiting Jacksonville last week.

• Three of the NFC East teams: Dallas, Washington, and the Giants are also on back-to-back road weeks.

• Minnesota and Detroit meet each other, negating the extra time off, but Denver and Indianapolis have an extra day of rest on their opponents after playing last Saturday.

• Vegas hasn’t played since their beatdown on TNF 10 days ago and should be well rested heading to KC tomorrow.

• Not much for dome/warm weather teams heading to cold cities. Essentially just the Cardinals heading to Chicago.

Taking it easy, but still a few small favorites I like today

Titans/Seahawks over 41.5

I did not bet this until this morning. I needed confirmation that it’s Tannehill starting and not some Christmas miracle for Levis or even worse, Malik Willis getting a spot start. So, now that’s shaken out how I had hoped, it’s Geno and Tanny with some good WRs against secondaries I don’t respect. I think it should be 43 or higher. I’ll have a small be on the Tennessee to win this straight up as well.

Cleveland -3

Maybe Flacco pulls a Browning and turns into a pumpkin too, but this Houston defense has been very beatable. The sizeable mismatch that has me involved is on the other side of the ball though. Like I just said, I don’t respect the Titans defense and frankly, Case Keenum looked like trash against them. He now faces Myles Garrett and a top-five unit. I expect that to go poorly, even at home.

Chicago -4

Another one that segues from the previous bet. The Bears faced the Browns last week and were mostly stymied by their tough defense. They now get the Cards D that’s been 29th in defensive EPA/play since week 10. On the flip side, the Bears defenders have put together a string of impressive results. The Cardinals also may be without two of their starting WRs today.

Miami -1.5

Who knows with Dallas, but the more I look at this game, the more I think there are a lot of paths to a Miami blowout. The injuries up front are troublesome, but they have been a team that’s been able to get the ball out quickly to mitigate a strong pass rush.

6-point Teaser: Indy +9/Tampa +7

Not anything really in the math-teaser zones, so this is a small bet on a couple of teams that I don’t see losing by margin very often in their current matchups. Trusting Minshew and Baker like this would have made me laugh earlier in the year, but I like both of their matchups and don’t think am more than happy to grab these as they steam against the teams I’m backing off of late injury news.

Noonan gave me a winner last week and has promised to try very hard to do the same today. I like this one since it means that Baltimore is running a lot of plays and moving the ball.

Ji'Ayir Brown (SF) Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists -110

Check you tomorrow for some quick previews of the xmas games!