📈Week 15 Power Ratings Updates & NFL Tiers

It’s still mid-morning and we won’t have a ton of news that matters until tomorrow but here are some injuries I’m keeping a close eye on regarding week 15 matchups

• Geno Smith: probably back but who knows

• Keenan Allen: missing practices, but that’s been more common as the year has gone on

• Jefferson and Mattison for the Vikes, both seem up in the air

• Bills’ TE Dalton Kincaid re-aggravated a shoulder problem last week

• I don’t have any real hope that CJ Stroud or Nico Collins but will wait for updates

• Is Christian Watson progressing at all with his hamstring injury?

• Pats WR Demario Douglas has been in the concussion protocol for a bit now

• A handful of Falcons that matter (Okudah, McGary, Landman, Dalman, Onyemata, Matthews, Lindstrom)

• Josh Jacobs with a quad injury on a short week

• Ravens’ S Kyle Hamilton has a sprained MCL, but apparently is day-to-day

• Denzel Ward and Jerome Ford for the Browns, also curious to see the new OL alignment after two more season-ending injuries to OTs.

• Ja’Marr Chase popped up on the injury list with an ankle

• The team is “seeing how the week goes” for Jonathan Taylor

• Again, most of the Tampa Bay defense

New Tiers aren’t too dissimilar from the old tiers. Some changes and a definite class division between the top six teams and the rest. I have a sizeable gap between the Lions and the teams above them at the moment. The difference in my PRs between the 49ers and Lions is the same as the difference between the Lions and Raiders. It’s a jam-packed lower-middle-class kind of year.

Again, maybe just another week to take a look at how to treat some of the QB stuff since the adjustments have been small for the most part this late in the season and almost exclusively QB-based anyway.

Mullens in for Minnesota

Upgrade for sure, but I’m not confident in how much considering how long ago some of his starts are. Jefferson’s status matters much more to a backup than say, Kirk Cousins, I think, so if he were to play, I’d be willing to bump a team for a non-QB. I’m going with a one-point upgrade, less based on Mullens’ skills and more on the fact that I was going to have to downgrade Dobbs again.

Easton Stick

Everyone had their fun with the hockey stick memes, but now we actually have to see this kid start a game.

This is a heavy tumble in my opinion. If Herbert had been 100%, I think this is damn near a seven-point downgrade, especially on a short week. 6.5 points for me in this and possibly the full seven if Keenan Allen finally sits out. He has a big arm, so we will likely see some deep balls. Whether they’re arm punts of big gains will be the question.

Mitchs Trubiskys

He could look better against a Colts defense this week, but I think I was likely a bit high on Mitch and dropped the Steelers a full point this week after his performance in the home loss.

Tomlin was quoted this week as saying "He'll get an opportunity to get some work and we'll evaluate that work and evaluate his readiness." about third-stringer Mason Rudolph, so even internally they are realizing that Mitch could be holding them back. Currently, I’d probably have a pretty similar rating for Rudolph, possibly a half-point downgrade in this offense.

Flacco’s Passing Rate

After watching the first game of Flacco I said “it just looks like they trust him.” Clevta did a better job of actually backing that up with some stats here. The turnovers last week were messy (for both teams really), but if this is the offense the Browns are putting out there right now, they are a more high-variance team for sure. The offensive line injuries will likely be an issue, but for now just something to maybe monitor for live betting.

Stroud Unlikely to go?

This is another decent-sized drop, more than I would have thought at the beginning of the season. Not only because of the skill level difference between Stroud and Mills but the fact that the backup will be doing it down two of the top WRs as well. Full six-point downgrade to Davis Mills, assuming it’s him and not some Case Keenum nonsense.

Late Addition! Raiders Could Get Weird

This popped up like 4 minutes before I was going to send this today so….

I will upgrade the Raiders somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5-2.5 points if Jimmy G plays but now I kind of need to dig into any sort of practice reports from the beat reporters. Has he been getting snaps with the first team or are they just going to do this off the cuff and hope for the best?

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

A Thursday Thriller, a Trio of Saturday Contests, and NO ONE on bye. We’ll try to keep it concise, but with sixteen games, this should be a jam-packed episode. Hop in live if you can, we’d love to hear your thoughts or try to help answer your questions.

Quick thoughts about awards. The discourse in HEATING UP online and I love it.

• MVP: should be Purdy and Dak, if either finishes strong and gets the one-seed that feels like enough to get it done. Lamar beating the 49ers next week and getting an AFC bye week could have him as a dark horse. I struggle to see a path for Hurts at this point after the H2H losses happened this late in the season.

• OPOY: I think seeing the Miami offense with him sidelined a bit may have strengthened Hill’s case here. A 2,000-yard season locks it up for sure, but that’s still a tough ask. CMC is generational but suffers from the credit split that is the 49ers.

• DPOY: I’m surprised Garrett isn’t closer here, I expect him to have a big day at home this week and am considering adding a small position. If Watt misses time with a concussion, he’s likely completely done, but he does have the extra time to get right off TNF

• Coach of the Year: Stefanski is a bet at this price for me. My Shanny bet pre-season was predicated on him having 15-16 wins and just being dominant throughout, the mid-season slump with the injuries killed that. This one is way more wide open than I thought it’d be this late. Steichen and Ryans are in tough spots with issues and injuries popping up and threatening their chances. Sean Payton is an interesting name if the Broncos can pull off an upset in Detroit this week.

• OROY: still over, even if Stroud misses the rest of the year I think

• DROY: Carter had a scoop and score, Witherspoon had an injury. Certainly not over but getting there as the two could go head to head on MNF.

• Comeback: Ignoring the obvious choice, could a 38-year-old Joe Flacco make a late-season push here? They have four winnable games left. The number is too low at this point, I’m just rooting for the people I saw grab it at 100/1.