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Apologies for running a bit behind this week (if getting this a day late affects you somehow). Hopefully, the rest of the holidays go more smoothly.

That said, not a lot of big moves as we get into the home stretch. I have been playing with how I weigh recent results compared to the full season, trying to find a nice mix that gives me a good picture of how a team should be performing, but it’s tough. Using too many recent results can run into small sample size issues, and also needs more context added for the opponent than a larger data set. But, using too little can skew just as badly for teams that have had cluster/QB injuries and are clearly not the same team they were in the first half.

The solution I’m finding is to adjust this subjectively on a team-by-team basis, which isn’t perfect, but “perfect is the enemy of good”.

Teams that have had a smoother, even-keeled season will use larger chunks of season-long data, while teams that are clearly different from their September versions (like the Colts) will need to be adjusted more with more recent data. There is no “one size fits all” answer for this question, in my opinion.

Thoughts on this week’s Ratings:

• I can’t honestly make a case that Phillip Rivers off a multi-year layoff is an upgrade over Riley Leonard at this point

• I CAN make a case that Kenny Pickett is a mild upgrade from Geno Smith. Not because Pickett is good, but because the bar is set so low

• I need some final confirmation, but the Jets’ number will likely get another small bump down when it’s announced that Brady Cook is indeed starting.

• One week of JJ McCarthy not fouling it all up isn’t enough to trust Minnesota. We’ll see how he does on the road in primetime.

• The Rams vs. Hawks debate usually goes against how I have them right now, but the Rams were the 5th-best defense for 11 weeks, Quentin Lake got hurt, and they’ve been average since. Great pass rush, beatable corners. Meanwhile, Seattle is at worst the second-best defense and isn’t far behind the Rams offensively. Either way, I’m jacked up for next week’s TNF blood feud.

• I’m looking into my Lions number. I’m too high, and I need to reevaluate how the injuries and the changes in play-calling have affected this team. That said, I’m not going to adjust them enough not to bet them +6 this week. I just said the Rams’ corners are trash.

• This is a bit of a stupid week, as it’s sometimes hard to judge a team when they are in extreme game states (winning or losing by 2+ TDs). With a half dozen BIG favorites, we might get a bunch of that come Sunday.

If I missed something, or you have questions on where I’m at with certain teams, you know where to find me (I still call it Twitter)

WEEK 15 BETTING

Recorded the big show yesterday, and we had quite a few agreements to go with our LAR-DET split. ICYMI: