📊NFL Week 15 Early Line Moves

I complained at halftime but in the end, we had some pretty entertaining second halves last night.

Still didn’t love trying to watch two games at once on a Monday but lordy how about those underdog QBs? All-time bag fumbles by two teams with massive openings to solidify playoff positioning but also some really gritty play by Levis and DeVito late in the games to get it done.

Heartbreaking to lose my Wicks props after he got six targets and only came down with the two catches before leaving with an injury. I don’t want to be a “good process, bad result” guy, but I’m going to anyway. Such is life in the prop world.

With twice as many teams playing on Monday night, we have four games that are circled still this morning as they reopened, some with injury concerns swirling around their week 15 matchups. Still, with no byes left, there are plenty of games and a few notable moves to peep as you prep for another week of gambling on the NFL.

Easton Stick/AOC Not Being Trusted to Score

The already low opener of 34.5 has been dropping already and is down to 33 on Tuesday morning. I’m not sure who’s going to get in front of that bus and keep it from continuing down.

Lions Expected to Bounce Back

Some money coming in on the favorite in the Saturday Night game with the Lions out to -5 after opening -3.5 Sunday night. Not a huge move across any key numbers, but still a willingness to back this team at home versus a Broncos team on its third straight roadie.

Falcons/Panthers Total Coming Down

Even after a nice outing from the Atlanta offense, this one is down to 35 after seeing totals open as high as 39.5 on Sunday.

Tuesday Re-Opens

• Miami was -13.5 hosting the Jets on the lookahead, it reopened -9.5 and has been bet down to -9. (total slightly lower as well, 40 down from 41).

• The Giants were 6.5 point underdogs to the Saints last week and reopened +5, with some money pushing it down to 4.5

• The Tennessee line is a bit messy with Davis Mills likely stepping in for the injured C.J. Stroud: It was Houston -4 before the injury, reopening with the Titans as slight favorites and now up to Tennessee -2 on the Tuesday reopen.

• The Packers’ line didn’t take much of a swing at all. It remains Green Bay -3.5 or -3 with extra juice as they host Tampa Bay on Sunday.

I started to put together a mock draft the other day and realized how painfully unequip I was for this sort of thing this early in the cycle. For years, the only mock I put out was in April. Last year I bumped it up a bit with some “early” mocks in March. This is a whole different beast.

So, in an effort to get a better grasp of things I took two steps back and started to look into each team’s realistic needs heading into this offseason. Sure, there will be some surprises in free agency and some coaching changes that I can’t predict will mess some of this up, but for now, I just want to get the best baseline I can for each team and update as we go.

This is where you come in. This newsletter has been opened 1.6 million times so far this football season, so I’d assume that there are at least 32 of you out there who follow your team incredibly closely and have strong opinions on what they need who you think they’ll target, and how you think the offseason goes. I’d love that sort of feedback as I roll through these. I’ll try to get through as many as I can as fast as I can and will post them on the Twitter as I do.

Follow me on Twitter and rip my opinions to shreds when it’s your team’s turn. Hell, you can even DM or just tweet at me ahead of time if you can’t wait and need to let me know what your team’s draft plans are already.

Starting with Monday and working backward, quick thoughts on the games after I’ve had some time to chew on them all:

MNF: Green Bay 22 - NY Giants 24

Love looked a little rough at times but it’s a tough place to play a standalone night game I suppose. The Packers’ defense really let them down, especially the pass rush. Letting DeVito scramble like he did was hard to watch. This definitely hurt their playoff chances, but opens a nice door for my Rams. Is DeVito a thing now? He made a couple of nice throws last night despite not having a ton to work with.

MNF: Tennessee 28 - Miami 27

Tua MVP and Miami’s shot at the top seed is likely in the trash after this late melt. I still don’t think Levis is going to be a long-term answer at QB, but holy hell is he fun to watch. For the sake of good football games to watch I hope that none of the Miami injuries are lingering.

Props to Vrabel though:

SNF: Philadelphia 12 - Dallas 33

Dallas trucked offensively, but this one really hinged on the Eagles losing those fumbles in plus territory. The Eagles’ best six drives went 54, 41, 49, 31, 46, and 62. They got just 6 points combined from those and did not score an offensive TD. This is how you fall to the five seed.

Denver 24 - LA Chargers 7

The big concern is Herbert’s finger going forward, but my greatest fear is Staley being able to lean on this as an excuse and keeping his job for another year. I think it’s time to bring in an offensive-minded head coach and make a run in LA. The Broncos’ offense was fine, but I was very impressed with the defense, especially the pass rush.

Buffalo 20 - Kansas City 17

The biggest story on Monday (Toney-gate) overshadowed my biggest takeaway from this one: neither of these teams looked impressive and the top AFC teams all have massive flaws. I hate to say something out of pocket, but it feels like a wildcard team is very live to make a run through the AFC playoffs. Flacco magical run redux?

Seattle 16 - San Francisco 28

Ho hum on the scoreboard, but a fairly routine win by an incredibly efficient offense. The secondary for SF is still sketchy, but if all the offensive weapons remain healthy, this team should find itself in Vegas in two months.

Minnesota 3 - Las Vegas 0

No one should actually dump bleach in their eyes but, man what a horrid game this was. The worst part is that every Vikings fan who attended has probably been looking forward to this trip for months and had to sit through three hours of some of the most inept QB play seen in ages. The Vikings’ defense deserves more and more credit each week. If Mullens can do anything, the late-season matchups against Detroit may be very competitive.

LA Rams 31 - Baltimore 37 (OT)

I left this one feeling pretty good about both offenses. Lamar can make a legit run at the MVP if he wins out (beating the 49ers on Christmas would carry some weight). The Rams still need to get in (losses by the Seahawks and Packers helped) but this feels like an offense that could hang with some of the top teams right now and could play spoiler in the Wild Card round.

Houston 6 - NY Jets 30

The fun season for Houston took a gross tumble on a cold, wet afternoon in the Meadowlands. If Stroud is out for even a week the playoff prospects for the Texans are in really poor shape. There are just too many teams vying for the wildcard spots to take losses to the Jets and Titans in consecutive weeks. As for Zach Wilson, maybe the change in mindset has helped. Playing to win rather than worrying about your job looked better to me.

Carolina 6 - New Orleans 28

Panthers are a disaster offensively. Only three teams had a worse week from an EPA/play standpoint and they were all on backup QBs for at least part of the game. The Saints moved back into a tie for the division lead, but with their injuries and Carr’s play, I don’t trust them to stay there.

Jacksonville 27 - Cleveland 31

From a down-to-down standpoint, this was still a decent day for the Browns’ defense. The turnovers (seven combined) made this a messy box score to pick apart. The Jags’ injuries may continue to haunt them (Baltimore on deck) while Cleveland may have but locked up a playoff spot here. Stefanski should get coach of the year consideration like yesterday.

Indianapolis 14 - Cincinnati 34

An incredibly poor showing from the Colts’ defense here as the Jake Browning show goes on. Baltimore is the only team in the division not trotting out a backup QB and it’s still likely that we see at least three AFC North teams in the postseason. The Bengals are still very live for the playoffs but don’t have the easiest schedule; the Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns are the remaining opponents.

Detroit 13 - Chicago 28

Good for the Bears but this one should have probably been closer. Detroit’s three turnovers and one-for-five performance on 4th down gave nearly all the high-leverage plays to the Bears and tilted things heavily in their favor. Not to mention a boneheaded defensive gaffe by the Lions that allowed a 4th and 13 touchdown.

Tampa Bay 29 - Atlanta 25

The Bucs are going to need to get healthy on defense if they want to sew up the division. Getting this much out of Baker every week isn’t likely sustainable. Atlanta losing in strange fashion (a 27-yard pass with no time left from the 30) feels very on-brand for them.