Tight at the top and a couple of decent-sized moves after I made a slight adjustment in how I measure the data, upweighting more recent results for some of the teams that clearly have played differently after some injuries. I’m sure no one in Philly will be mad at these numbers, but what am I gonna do? I was low on Philly last week, and they lived up to those expectations. You can’t take the wins away; they still lead the division, but Dallas has caught up to them at the moment.

Stuff I’m working through yet: I’m likely a bit low on Jacksonville and need to look at how that defense has progressed. I’m also possibly still too high on Baltimore and Indy. Current numbers above assume JJ McCarthy playing, Jayden Daniels sitting, and Justin Herbert calling his own number next Monday, just 6 days after having hand surgery.

Cincy 📈

I was surprised at how unrusty (not a word) Burrow was in their Thanksgiving win, and now with Higgins hopefully returning, this team will again be a pain in the ass to beat. With Hendrickson still out and the defense remaining a bottom-five unit, we could end up with some highly entertaining games down the stretch. I don’t know that they’ll be able to run the table and get back in the playoff picture, but this is a much more fun version of the team for sure.

Other upgrades: WAS, DAL, MIA, GB

• Washington with Mariota is still a bit dicey; he made a couple of horrible decisions versus Denver. That said, he damn near led them to a win against a tough defense, and more importantly, the running game looked way better than expected.

• Dallas is still a bit of a puzzle to me on the defensive side of the ball. Getting some pieces back has improved, and it’s clear that it’s allowed Eberflus to make adjustments to the pass rush and coverage. I DO know that Pickens/Lamb has to be one of the biggest nightmare duos for opponents to scheme against.

• The Dolphins didn’t win convincingly on the scoreboard vs a bad team, but they still won to extend their streak to a quiet three games. Getting Achane more involved and the return of Darren Waller have the offense moving in the right direction. This was an overdue upgrade that I had been slow to make.

• I don’t think he can actually win it, but Jordan Love looked like an MVP on Thanksgiving. The Packers’ offense staying consistent and aggressive has them in the hunt for the NFC one seed.

Minnesota 📉

The defense looked good at times last week, but even with a mild upgrade getting back to JJ McCarthy this week, the team is in trouble considering the state of the offensive line. Not having a backup plan at QB is the ultimate dooming factor, but this team has hurt itself in every other way possible as well (worst turnover differential in the league, 7.4 penalties per game, wasting a year of Jettas’ prime).

Other downgrades: TEN, NO, ARI, LAR

• Tennessee looked like a steaming pile of dogshit on both sides of the ball last week.

• Websites that cover the Saints are starting to publish articles about who they should draft next year. That’s where we’re at. While they got back into it when Miami got comfortable, the first half of last week’s game was up there with some of the worst football of the year.

• Marvin Harrison Jr. is banged up again and has a real chance to miss this week, and the Cardinals have now lost four straight. Getting next to nothing from the pass rush in a game where Baker Mayfield wasn’t all that good hurt. It was yet another one they had a chance to win but fell short, especially on defense.

• The Rams get a bump down, but not for the offense (they hit their team total last week!). They were bound to see some regression in turnovers at some point. My numbers are moving them slightly down based on how the defense has played over the past few games. Still a top team, but slightly less so.

Tweet of the Week

I’m sure you’ve seen this, but a funny tweet is always 100x funnier when it turns out to be true, like 2 days later. Congrats on your waiver claim for Adam Thielen, Pittsburgh (did not adjust my ratings).

🚨Podcast This Afternoon🚨

We’ll go game by game at 3 PM ET today to decide where our hard-earned dollars will be wagered this week. As always, it’ll be out in podcast form tomorrow morning.

Join us live if you can. We love questions, comments, and help pronouncing names.