Monday Night Football Two-fer

I’ll have my full week 14 thoughts and recap tomorrow after we get through the double-stuffed MNF, but I do have a quick list of things that weren’t on my bingo card for yesterday:

1. The Jets scored 30 points, in one half!

2. The Falcons-Bucs game was quite a bit of fun. All gas, no brakes

3. All the coach of the year candidates pooped their respective pants

4. The Bengals defense shut out a team for an entire half!

5. The Vikings and Raiders set a record for the lowest scoring indoor game ever

Market

Opened as a big favorite (-12.5) and has continued to see money come in on the home team, now out to -14.

The total was bet up to as high as 47.5 from the opening 46 early in the week but saw money come back on the under later on in into the weekend. Currently back to the 46 it started at.

Injuries

For Miami: a hamstring injury will keep G Robert Hunt out for tonight. OT Terron Armstead, S Jevon Hollard, and rookie RB Chris Brooks are questionable. Liam Eichenberg should be the fill-in for Robert Hunt. Kendall Lamm is expected to start at left tackle is Armstead isn’t good to go tonight.

LB Jerome Baker isn’t listed since he is now on the IR after suffereing a knee injury.

The Titans have ruled out two key defenders in CB Kristian Fulton and DT Jeffery Simmons. TE Josh Whyle is also out.

Another DL piece, Teair Tart, was added to the injury report for “non-injury related/personal reasons” and carries a questionable tag.

After a scare late in last weeks game, Derrick Henry is good to go and was a full particiapant in Saturday’s practice.

Additionally: The Titans will have a new punter, Ty Zentner, after Ryan Stonehouse was placed on the IR with his leg injury.

Matchup

Technically, the Titans are not even eliminated from winning the AFC South but, with their 4-8 record, the season is certainly on life support. Meanwhile, Miami looks to keep pace with Baltimore and reclain the top seed with a win in a game they are heavily favored in.

I can think of some better times to be down two key defenders. Even against some good teams and veteran DBs, the Miami offense has found ways to beat you with scheme, play design, pre-snap disguise and hot, nasty speed.

There has been some attrition due to the injuries of guys like Baker and Phillips, but it still stands that over the past few weeks this Miami defense has been playing much, much better and deserves some credit for putting it back together as they got some players back from injury.

The Titans offense is basically at the Mendoza-line again after a wild outbust from Will Levis and his deep ball against the Falcons. They did have a bit more production last week at home but that was a bottom-tier Colts run defense that let Henry and Spears get what they wanted most of the day.

What I’ll be watching for: How the Titans decide to defend.

As we saw last week, you can expect most CBs to cover Tyreek in man with out some help. This means you can’t stack the box or blitz as much in order to keep safeties and LBs back in coverage. The problem with trying to get pressure on Tua with just your front four is that Simmons is out and Miami tends to get rid of the ball fairly quick as it is. In-game adjustments by Tenny will be very interesting: it’s a bit of damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If they choose to blitz in an attempt to get pressure on Tua, they leave coverage defenders on islands with blazing fast stars. If they decide to drop defenders back and can’t get pressure on Tua, he should be able to just sit back and find them on comebacks or any of the RBs underneath.

Betting

I went back and forth on which way to attack this since I still think the Dolphins number may be a bit short considering the matchups they have in the Tennessee secondary. The over would likely mean I’m expecting some help from the Titans, likey to the tune of 14-20 points. Maybe the Miami defense does indeed take a step back after some key injuries, but for now I’m still expecting them to play well at home witha bottom-tier QB.

In the end I’m just tailing my guy big Al on a fun one for small stakes. This one is in serious danger every single time the Phins have the ball.

Market

Opening lower on Sunday night, some books did wait on this one and just open it as Green Bay -7 on Monday morning. Some push and pull during the week, but the Sunday money has been on New York, taking this down the -6 we have now.

Total opened 37 and was bet to the under (down to 36) early on before seeing it bounce back up to 37.

Injuries

WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones won’t play in this one. Additioanlly, LB Quay Walker is listed as doubtful, he did not practice this week.

CB Jaire Alexander is questionable after missing the past four games. S Darnell Savaege and CB Eric Stokes are also questionable. Stokes is currently on the IR and would need to be activated in order to play, possibly a move is Alexander is out for a 5th straight game.

The Giants have ruled out OT Evan Neal. DL Dexter Lawrence, TE Daniel Bellinger, WR Paris Campbell, DL A’Shawn Robinson and LB Isaiah Simmons are all questionable.

Bellinger should play, he was just limited in practice with an illness. The team is hopeful that Lawrence and Robinson are spry enough to play tonight. Not having Lawrence would be an issue, he leads the team with 12 QB knockdowns and is 2nd with 21 pressures.

Matchup

While not a stiff test (the Giants are a middle of the pack defense), this is likely still another improtant step towards the “Jordan Love figured it out” movement.

After three damn fine games in a row and a team that’s 4-1 in it’s last five, it’d be an awful spot for a let down here. The Rams lost, the Seahawks lost and depsite the Vikings winning, I’m not sure they can be viewed as a long term threat if Jefferson misses time again. This isn’t a play-in game, but for the Packers, this would be an ugly stumbling block if they can’t get this done on the road.

I know players don’t tank. They have contract incentives, the next contract to think about, personal pride and honestly, half-assing it out there is a good way to get hurt. That said, I feel like the team’s decision to stick with Tommy DeVito when Tyrod is back and probably ready to go again speaks a bit about their long term plans for the season. At 4-8, I don’t blame them if they take the rest of the year to evaluate roster talent and make plans for the 2024 offseason instead of trying to claw their way to a few extra wins.

As for the game: I like the matchup a bit more for the Giants offense than I thought I would. With Jaire limited or out and Rasul Douglas in Buffalo, the secondary has had to make do with some young and inexperienced corners. They’ve done a fine job, but eventually water finds its level. On top of that, this has been a bad run-stop group and will face Saquon Barkley as one of the focal points of the offense for sure. Green Bay has ranked out as a slightly above average defense over the past month, and has done so against the Chiefs, Chargers and Lions, so I guess they deserve some credit. It’s just hard for them to pass the smell test for me.

I’m not sure what the splits look like for the receivers that are left, but for the most part the Packers offense has maintained some level of consistency despite some setback via injury.

Basically, the Packers win this game tonight if we get the Jordan Love we’ve seen for the past month. If he reverts back to the mistake-riddled young man from the early fall, the Giants are super live here against this defense. It’s an awful lot of points to be laying on the road, in primetime for a QB who’s proven very little so far and I understand folks grabbing the +7/+6.5s here.

Betting

I like this Wicks kid a bit, especially if he’s stepping into the Watson role at times. Watson was averaging over 25 routes run and close to six targets per game when he played, he and Musgrave (also out) had the third and fourth most targets this year behind Doubs and Reed. Wicks was getting roughly an equal amount of targets/route run at 0.22, I’d expect to see him get a half dozen looks toinght with the increased role.