It’s week 14. Off the top, a quick look at the situational stuff

• Carolina is on its THIRD straight road game facing the Saints, their fourth in five weeks now

• Detroit will be playing its second straight week on the road against a Bears team that is coming off their bye

• Dallas (vs PHI) and Seattle (@ SF) are working with the extra time to prepare coming off TNF

• The LA Rams are traveling cross country to play in the early window against a Ravens team coming off their bye

• Minnesota and Las Vegas are both coming off their bye to play each other

• Green Bay will have to back up their big win over the Chiefs versus a Giants team coming off the bye

• Buffalo has extra rest coming off their bye but gets the unenviable task of playing in KC in their return to action

• Cincinnati (vs IND) and Jacksonville (@ CLE) are working with a short week after playing MNF

• Denver will be playing the second of three straight (indoor) road games this week in LA versus the Chargers

• Houston, Indy, Detroit, and the LA Rams are all playing outdoor games in cold-weather cities, as dome teams. I suppose you could throw Jacksonville in the mix as well as a warm-weather team in Cleveland

• Washington and Arizona are off this week, representing the final byes of the 2023 NFL season

Weather

LA Rams @ Baltimore - The weather looks to be improving here with the winds down to 20 mph gusts rather than the 40+ that was forecasted. It’s still likely to rain for the entire game, probably heavy at times.

Houston @ NY Jets - This one appears to be taking the crown for the worst one of the week with 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts predicted from 30-40 mph, along with rain throughout the game and the possibility of Thunderstorms.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland - Rain possibility diminishing as the precip looks to be starting later in the day. Still 15+ mph winds with gusts in the 20s expected.

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati - Like Cleveland it’s looking like the rains will hold off. With that the winds should be a bit calmer as well.

Detroit @ Chicago - borderline “wind” game for now with the predicted winds in the 10-15 range. Should be dry and cold with some gusts over 20 mph

All the other outdoor games (SEA@SF, BUF@KC, & TEN@MIA) look fine. Hell Miami looks really nice: 73 with a slight breeze.

Injury News

• Trevor Lawrence is “planning” to play. The Jags will make their final decision during pregame warmups. RB Travis Etienne is expected to play. Both injured CBs (Tre Herndon and Tyson Campbell) are out.

• Breece Hall is expected to go for the Jets vs Houston

• BOTH KWIII and Zach Charbonnet are expected to be on the field for Seattle when they play the 49ers. Geno Smith is still questionable with a groin injury though.

• Chris Olave is expected to play but IS NOT over his illness. WR Rashid Shaheed and TE Taysom Hill are likely out.

• Maxx Crosby should be active for the Raiders despite missing some practice with a knee issue

• Texans WR Noah Brown is expected to go

• Falcons CB A.J. Terrell cleared concussion protocol and is not on the injury report

• The Bills activated TE Dawson Knox from injured reserve and he “has a good chance” to play today

• The Chiefs get a boost to a beat-up defense with LB Nick Bolton returning to action today

• Amari Cooper is cleared to play for the Browns

• Miami OT Terron Armstead’s status is still in the air, but he didn’t suffer any setbacks this week.

• Derek Carr cleared the concussion protocol and will play despite his many injuries.

Tampa Bay ML +115

I would have liked to see A.J. Terrell miss this game, but I’m still confident in the Tampa Bay offense versus a team that shouldn’t be able to muster much of a pass rush today. I have Tampa rated as a slightly better team and am more than happy to take a plus-money price here with the more trustworthy QB.

Dallas Team Total over 27.5 -125

The Eagles are truly in the meat grinder portion of their schedule and showed very little resistance against a strong passing attack last week. This week, the Eagles pass rush will actually be going up against a strong offensive line to boot. I don’t see how the Cowboys don’t move with ease in this one.

Bears +3 +100

Even without the advantage some bad weather might have given us I like the Bears at this price. I don’t always love the coaching staff in Chicago, but this Lions defense is just so susceptible to an offense willing to attack and push the ball downfield a bit. I don’t think the Bears need to score 30 to get it done with their defense, but that’s what Detroit has been giving up on average over the past month.

Prop: Elijah Moore (CLE) o3.5 Receptions -102

The Jags will be without two of their top three corners, I’m not sure Amari Cooper is 100%, and Flacco targeted Moore 12 times in last week’s loss. Yeah, he only had the four catches, but I still think he sees the volume to get to 4 or 5 catches pretty easily again this week.

6 Point Teaser: Baltimore -1.5 / Colts +8.5

Of course, I like a team at home off their bye even against a Rams squad on the come-up. Baltimore has given me more heartburn than any team in the league this year, but I’m already hungover, so we ride.

The Colts’ leg will balance on Minshew and how he takes care of the ball. I have him penciled in for at least one turnover at an inopportune time, but the Bengals’ defense is so very bad that I think it’ll balance out with what he can do with Pittman and Downs the rest of the day.

We went over all the games on Wednesday night, time stamped for your pleasure if you wanted to get some last-minute thoughts on a game I didn’t get to here:

Jordan Fuller over 5.5 got home last week, so Ryan is officially on a winning streak here. A bit of a higher total to hit today, but one he’s confident in. Hopefully, it’s 11 solo tackles on Elijah Moore receptions:

Foye Oluokun (JAX) Over 10.5 Tackles + Assists +100

Tomorrow: DOUBLE Monday Night Football!