The last semi-normal NFL week for a bit awaits.

Next week features a fully overlapping MNF doubleheader, Week 15 has a handful of games without start times yet, waiting to be flexed around, and the following week will mark the start of NFL Saturdays for the season.

Don’t forget that Christmas is on a Monday and will feature a 1:00/4:30/8:15 tripleheader as well, adjust your family plans accordingly.

In case anyone is wondering, currently I’d still have Dallas favored over Philadelphia next week at JerryWorld (even without any sort of bump for the extra time off). My ratings are nearly identical for the Eagles, Chiefs, and Cowboys. The middle is a mess as usual with lots of teams bunched up tightly just below “league average”.

WEEK 13 TIERS

The days of big adjustments are pretty much behind us, most moves are small and measured, so I wanted to take a quick look at my Pre-Season rankings and see who I have moved the most over the past three months.

So these are the biggest moves, both ways from my September 6th power numbers to now:

Moved Down 📉

Mostly QB-related stuff. Some were injured, some just disappointments.

1. NY Giants - QB injury/high expectations from the market

2. Cincinnati - 100% Burrow. A few weeks back I had them slightly higher than my pre-season number.

3. NY Jets - another one that’s nearly all QB since they’ve remained a top defense. Dropped even further when Boyle was elevated.

4. New England - Maybe hiring Bill O’Brien will turn out to be a good move long-term, but right now this is a bottom-five offense with the current QB room.

5. Carolina - Hopefulness based on a coach we thought too highly of and the supposed upside of a young QB prospect.

Moved Up 📈

I feel like I’m making excuses for being so wrong with these, but thinking back to where I was in August, I had reasons to be hesitant on these teams for sure.

1. San Francisco - Uncertainty at the most important position. Purdy had major elbow surgery on MARCH 10th!

2. Houston - Hit home runs on consecutive at-bats with the head coach hire and QB pick, and probably a ground rule double with Tank Dell.

3. Baltimore - worries about Lamar coming off the injuries and a new offensive coordinator fit had me lower than I guess I should have been.

4. Miami - Tua’s concussions don’t really get brought up anymore, huh? In August we were all terrified of more Skylar Thompson games.

5. Dallas - Concerns with losing Kellen Moore and handing the play-calling reins over to McCarthy kept me lower on Dallas to start the year.

Week 13 Early Line Moves

Dallas Catching Money

Another week of Dallas easily covering a big spread? This opened at -7.5 and is up to -9 or 9.5 a most shops now. The normal short week of prep is negated for both teams since they played on Thanksgiving.

Jets Total Pushed Down

Not a ton, but this did open as high as 35.5 and is down to 34. Tim Boyle isn’t inspiring confidence in the market and the Falcons are the Falcons.

Detroit/New Orleans Over

This is up to 46 after opening 44.5 on Sunday. I understand the defenses have struggled, but it’s still dicey hoping for the Red Zone regression to finally hit for the Saints in my opinion. I would keep an eye on the WR injuries for the Saints as well.

Arizona/Pittsburgh Over

Granted, they didn’t finish well, I still don’t want to crown the Steelers as an offensive powerhouse just yet. Arizona isn’t a stiff test, so maybe we see another nice day from Pickett at Co. This opened at 39 and is up over 41.5 at some places.

Broncos/Texans Over

We saw this open 46 after being as low as 44.5 on the lookahead last week and still get bet up. Now up to 47/47.5. Interesting matchup with Denver’s secondary and Houston’s group of young WRs.

Carolina/Tampa Bay Under

Baker Mayfield’s ankle is likely the biggest concern here. This one is down to a total of 37 after opening at 39. Tampa may still be missing defensive pieces that matter, but this isn’t the offense that can fully take advantage of that.

Packers Belief Pours In

To be fair, it was probably just a bad opener, but Green Bay has seen some action, down to +5.5/6 after getting a full touchdown to open against KC at home on Sunday Night Football.

49ers Steam

San Francisco is up to a -3 favorite after opening at -1. Not only at home but off the extra rest, it’s not super surprising the Niners are a hot side considering how some feel about the luck the Eagles have needed to win the last two games.

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

Join us live, or check it out tomorrow. We have some opinions to get off our chests tonight.

Awards Whiparound

• MVP: No one is setting themselves apart for the MVP and after talking it out, it seems likely that the ranked voting may come into play a bit more this year. With some split votes at the top, I think it’s time to start thinking about who will get a bunch of points for being 2nd or 3rd on a high number of ballots that decide to go with someone else at the top. Getting the bye is huge for some reason, which is probably the reason Jalen Hurts continues his upward trend in this market.

• OPOY: No real changes, Tyreek is -110, CMC +125. No real challengers as of now.

• DPOY: this one wasn’t up right away this week with the Myles Garrett injury scare. He’s still your betting favorite at +155 with Parsons (+175) close behind and T.J. Watt (+270) within striking distance.

• OROY: still very much over

• DROY: Jalen Carter (-250) opened up his lead over Witherspoon (+200) a bit. Both players will be in high-profile games this week.

• Coach: not much movement here either even with the Lions and Texans losing. Sirianni is a dog this week, but surprise wins this week and next could lead to a 16-1 season that would be hard to ignore (I have some 33/1 from like March that I’m just trying to rationalize, please don’t bet him at 8/1).

• Comeback: Josh Dobbs dropped all the way down to 75/1 after his MNF stinker while Damar (-300) picked up some equity by playing some snaps again (even if they were just special teams). Tua (+440), Lamar (+1200), Russell Wilson (+1200), and Aaron Rodgers (+1800) still hanging around. Wilson is interesting if he were able to grab a playoff spot after last year’s disaster, but the price isn’t big enough to move the needle for me.